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**TorryJens** · 09-04-2012, 09:08 AM

Don't hold your breath ...

The latest pop numbers show that Singapore Total Pop expanded by around 80k. In the minds of the PAP, they have therefore kept their election promise to reduce the immigration numbers. It is however unlikely to have an significant impact on the congestion on our infrastructure. This is because as is, the infrastructure already cannot cope with our current population. It will take an estimated 5 to 10 years to implement planned upgrades to catch up with our current population. Assuming an annual immigration rate of 80k, the population will increase by 400k in 5 years and 800k in 10 years. This would largely negate the positive impact of the infrastructure upgrades.

On GDP, the previous policy of 120k to 150k immigration per year yielded GDP growth of 8% to 10%. The more modest immigration of about 80k immigration per year should see GDP growth slide to between 4% to 6% which would mean slower growth in tax revenue and fees.

They are therefore not joking when they are saying that there is a need to raise taxes. This is however not so much as to implement social programs for the good of Singaporeans (who is that naive to believe) but to pay for the infrastructure upgrades which they see as being key to winning back the popular vote.

Still early days yet on where the tax burden will fall. My guess is that they will continue to maintain a favorable tax regime to attract high net worth millionaires to base in Singapore. It is unlikely to come from citizen middle class as it is this group which the PAP hopes to win back. The most likely group would be middle income FT (the much hated Chinese/Indian/Pinoy PMETs) who have come here to work. The current trend of getting this group to pay more for everything will continue as there is no shortage of such immigrants wanting to come to Singapore.

In July 2012, another series of measures followed and on 1st September even more cuts. There is a lot of talk and speculation about the impact and the common possibilities;

- significant impact on local small and medium enterprises

- perceptible reduction in overcrowding in lifts, MRT, pedestrian and road traffic

- drop in house and car prices

More importantly a definite drop in GDP ?

It looks like the cuts are driven by one single factor - the spectre of losing East Coast and even maybe BT. Joo Chiat is expected to be absorbed.

09-04-2012, 09:08 AM	#4
TorryJens Join Date Nov 2008 Posts 4,494 Senior Member	Don't hold your breath ... The latest pop numbers show that Singapore Total Pop expanded by around 80k. In the minds of the PAP, they have therefore kept their election promise to reduce the immigration numbers. It is however unlikely to have an significant impact on the congestion on our infrastructure. This is because as is, the infrastructure already cannot cope with our current population. It will take an estimated 5 to 10 years to implement planned upgrades to catch up with our current population. Assuming an annual immigration rate of 80k, the population will increase by 400k in 5 years and 800k in 10 years. This would largely negate the positive impact of the infrastructure upgrades. On GDP, the previous policy of 120k to 150k immigration per year yielded GDP growth of 8% to 10%. The more modest immigration of about 80k immigration per year should see GDP growth slide to between 4% to 6% which would mean slower growth in tax revenue and fees. They are therefore not joking when they are saying that there is a need to raise taxes. This is however not so much as to implement social programs for the good of Singaporeans (who is that naive to believe) but to pay for the infrastructure upgrades which they see as being key to winning back the popular vote. Still early days yet on where the tax burden will fall. My guess is that they will continue to maintain a favorable tax regime to attract high net worth millionaires to base in Singapore. It is unlikely to come from citizen middle class as it is this group which the PAP hopes to win back. The most likely group would be middle income FT (the much hated Chinese/Indian/Pinoy PMETs) who have come here to work. The current trend of getting this group to pay more for everything will continue as there is no shortage of such immigrants wanting to come to Singapore. In July 2012, another series of measures followed and on 1st September even more cuts. There is a lot of talk and speculation about the impact and the common possibilities; - significant impact on local small and medium enterprises - perceptible reduction in overcrowding in lifts, MRT, pedestrian and road traffic - drop in house and car prices More importantly a definite drop in GDP ? It looks like the cuts are driven by one single factor - the spectre of losing East Coast and even maybe BT. Joo Chiat is expected to be absorbed.
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