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**Drugmachine** · 05-11-2008, 04:22 PM

What's ahead of us? Your views please.

Personally, I'm sure the next four years will be tough. We will all be tested. I pray that all of the posters here are not visited by any of their most hysterical predictions. So far neither Ayers nor Wright nor Farrikan have been appointed to cabinet. So far Obama hasn't sworn in on a Quran. So far the brown shirts haven't knocked at your doors and taken away your guns and all your assets.

Instead of kicking yourselves and staying up trying to find a piece of mud big enough to dislodge Obama, learn the lesson of this campaign. Hate politics isn't a good tool when you pull it out everyday. People got numb after three campaigns waged exactly that way. They were tired of hearing about Obama's aunt and her $250 dollar contribution when the world was crashing around them.

You've got 4 years to build a better mousetrap. But be warned, if it's not a solution but merely more mud, well- make that eight years.

The Obama Presidency will be a disaster in slow motion. There won't be a single event that will show that he 'failed' but the long term damage to the USA and the rest of the world will be enormous:

ON ECONOMICS
=============

If Obama does what he says he will do, this recession we are in in will extend both in time and duration. The major issues are these, in no particular order:

1) Employee Free Choice Act--This Orwellian named piece of legislation will remove the rights of workers to participate in private and anonymous elections to decide if their workplace should become unionized. Instead of cards being signed and submitted to create a vote, these cards are sufficient to be the vote. In a nod to his labor backers, the EFCA will be passed, more shops unionized, more union dues collected and given to Dems, wages rise, lower employment, higher prices, higher numbers of people on the dole, lower tax revenues, etc. This combined with raising the min wage and FEDERALLY mandated sick days will force small businesses to cut back on hiring or on even employing people. Small business is the engine of the US economy and Obama may screw it up big time.

2) Personal Taxes--one can go on and on and on about this, but the facts are that EVERYBODY'S taxes are going up. The combination of marginal tax rate increases, FICA increases, dividend and investment taxes, means everybody's taxes goes up. Nearly 70% of ALL HOUSEHOLDS own stocks in some form or another. The dividends and capital gains taxes ALONE mean that nearly everybody's taxes are going up to some degree. The net effect of all of this will be lower expenditures by consumers and lower amounts of risk / investment capital available to expand the economy. Since consumer spending is 60% of the US economy, this is huge.

3) 401K Withdrawals--Obama has propsed allowing 401k money to be withdrawn without tax penalties. This will be a huge negative impact to the stock market. If it passses, expect the market to chop off 1500-2000 points, and then the lows at 7400-7900 in 2002 and 2009 will be come resistance not support. The real downside here may be panic selling as the first folks pull out of the market. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me will be the battle cry.

4) Corporate Taxes--Obama's desire to tax corporations at higher rates and to institute a punative 'windfall' tax just belies the fact that liberal economists tend not to understand how businesses run. Higher taxes on net profits, just means that companies will do what then need to do to get to higher profits on EBITA, their pre tax profit. They will lay off employees, reduce expenditures, and raise prices in order to do so. It is simple economics, and again disasterous to an economy in trouble already.

5) Trade Policy--Obama has suggested in 'renegotiating' various trade agreements like NAFTA to appease both the unions and the environmentalists and to help 'spur' US jobs. The additional terms he is proposing will act like protectionist tariffs, increasing costs through labor, environmental regulations and the like. These extra tariffs will be resisted by our trading partners or will be matched. So while we won't probably have a tariff war in the traditional sense, we may get one thorugh the back door.

Foreign Policy
=============
1) Israel will be hung out to dry--It won't come as a surprise when Hezbollah, Iran, Hamas, the PA, Syria, Egypt all start ratcheting up the pressure. Already Hamas has attacked Israel on the eve of the election. However, as Israel goes to defend herself, USA support will be lacking. There will be quicker condemnations at the UN that aren't blocked by the USA, the forced cease fires will come quicker and be even better for the Arabs. Futher, supplies from the US needed for the IDF will become harder to come by and in smaller supplies. The end result will be Israel will be forced to make a treaty that is clearly NOT in their favor, and when that treaty is broken by the Arabs, Israel will be blamed and even more support siphoned off.

2) Iran will get the Bomb--Obama will do NOTHING to stop Iran from getting the Bomb, which may set off a huge nuclear arms race which includes KSA and Egypt. All of this is very destabalizing for the ME and should hit oil prices which in turn will hit the economy.

3) Russia and China will be resurgent--Russia has already stated they will put missles on the border with Poland, and China will get tough on Tibet and Tawian, with a combonation of carrot and stick. Russia will continue to pressure Georgia, the Ukraine and the Baltics over their Russian minorities and it wouldn't surprise me if a shooting conflict started with Russia.

That'll do for now, but I haven't even started on the Fairness Doctrine, DADT / DOMA, and Domestic Police Force crap that will culturally be problematic for the USA and show how he isn't close to being a uniter, but really a divider.

05-11-2008, 04:22 PM	#6
Drugmachine Join Date Apr 2006 Posts 4,490 Senior Member	What's ahead of us? Your views please. Personally, I'm sure the next four years will be tough. We will all be tested. I pray that all of the posters here are not visited by any of their most hysterical predictions. So far neither Ayers nor Wright nor Farrikan have been appointed to cabinet. So far Obama hasn't sworn in on a Quran. So far the brown shirts haven't knocked at your doors and taken away your guns and all your assets. Instead of kicking yourselves and staying up trying to find a piece of mud big enough to dislodge Obama, learn the lesson of this campaign. Hate politics isn't a good tool when you pull it out everyday. People got numb after three campaigns waged exactly that way. They were tired of hearing about Obama's aunt and her $250 dollar contribution when the world was crashing around them. You've got 4 years to build a better mousetrap. But be warned, if it's not a solution but merely more mud, well- make that eight years. The Obama Presidency will be a disaster in slow motion. There won't be a single event that will show that he 'failed' but the long term damage to the USA and the rest of the world will be enormous: ON ECONOMICS ============= If Obama does what he says he will do, this recession we are in in will extend both in time and duration. The major issues are these, in no particular order: 1) Employee Free Choice Act--This Orwellian named piece of legislation will remove the rights of workers to participate in private and anonymous elections to decide if their workplace should become unionized. Instead of cards being signed and submitted to create a vote, these cards are sufficient to be the vote. In a nod to his labor backers, the EFCA will be passed, more shops unionized, more union dues collected and given to Dems, wages rise, lower employment, higher prices, higher numbers of people on the dole, lower tax revenues, etc. This combined with raising the min wage and FEDERALLY mandated sick days will force small businesses to cut back on hiring or on even employing people. Small business is the engine of the US economy and Obama may screw it up big time. 2) Personal Taxes--one can go on and on and on about this, but the facts are that EVERYBODY'S taxes are going up. The combination of marginal tax rate increases, FICA increases, dividend and investment taxes, means everybody's taxes goes up. Nearly 70% of ALL HOUSEHOLDS own stocks in some form or another. The dividends and capital gains taxes ALONE mean that nearly everybody's taxes are going up to some degree. The net effect of all of this will be lower expenditures by consumers and lower amounts of risk / investment capital available to expand the economy. Since consumer spending is 60% of the US economy, this is huge. 3) 401K Withdrawals--Obama has propsed allowing 401k money to be withdrawn without tax penalties. This will be a huge negative impact to the stock market. If it passses, expect the market to chop off 1500-2000 points, and then the lows at 7400-7900 in 2002 and 2009 will be come resistance not support. The real downside here may be panic selling as the first folks pull out of the market. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me will be the battle cry. 4) Corporate Taxes--Obama's desire to tax corporations at higher rates and to institute a punative 'windfall' tax just belies the fact that liberal economists tend not to understand how businesses run. Higher taxes on net profits, just means that companies will do what then need to do to get to higher profits on EBITA, their pre tax profit. They will lay off employees, reduce expenditures, and raise prices in order to do so. It is simple economics, and again disasterous to an economy in trouble already. 5) Trade Policy--Obama has suggested in 'renegotiating' various trade agreements like NAFTA to appease both the unions and the environmentalists and to help 'spur' US jobs. The additional terms he is proposing will act like protectionist tariffs, increasing costs through labor, environmental regulations and the like. These extra tariffs will be resisted by our trading partners or will be matched. So while we won't probably have a tariff war in the traditional sense, we may get one thorugh the back door. Foreign Policy ============= 1) Israel will be hung out to dry--It won't come as a surprise when Hezbollah, Iran, Hamas, the PA, Syria, Egypt all start ratcheting up the pressure. Already Hamas has attacked Israel on the eve of the election. However, as Israel goes to defend herself, USA support will be lacking. There will be quicker condemnations at the UN that aren't blocked by the USA, the forced cease fires will come quicker and be even better for the Arabs. Futher, supplies from the US needed for the IDF will become harder to come by and in smaller supplies. The end result will be Israel will be forced to make a treaty that is clearly NOT in their favor, and when that treaty is broken by the Arabs, Israel will be blamed and even more support siphoned off. 2) Iran will get the Bomb--Obama will do NOTHING to stop Iran from getting the Bomb, which may set off a huge nuclear arms race which includes KSA and Egypt. All of this is very destabalizing for the ME and should hit oil prices which in turn will hit the economy. 3) Russia and China will be resurgent--Russia has already stated they will put missles on the border with Poland, and China will get tough on Tibet and Tawian, with a combonation of carrot and stick. Russia will continue to pressure Georgia, the Ukraine and the Baltics over their Russian minorities and it wouldn't surprise me if a shooting conflict started with Russia. That'll do for now, but I haven't even started on the Fairness Doctrine, DADT / DOMA, and Domestic Police Force crap that will culturally be problematic for the USA and show how he isn't close to being a uniter, but really a divider.
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