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I've also read quotes that say our chances of being born are like those of the turtle who rises to the surface of the ocean and sticks its head through a hole in some driftwood.

hello again, Tofu

the scripture is as follows:

It's likewise a sheer coincidence that one obtains the human state. It's likewise a sheer coincidence that a Tathagata, worthy & rightly self-awakened, arises in the world. It's likewise a sheer coincidence that a doctrine & discipline expounded by a Tathagata appears in the world.

Now, this human state has been obtained. A Tathagata, worthy & rightly self-awakened, has arisen in the world. A doctrine & discipline expounded by a Tathagata appears in the world.

Therefore your duty is the contemplation, 'This is stress... This is the origination of stress... This is the cessation of stress.' Your duty is the contemplation, 'This is the path of practice leading to the cessation of stress.'

Chiggala Sutta: The Hole in Pali, the word 'human' and 'manussa' means 'high minded'

for example, a common commentarial definition of humans is the phrase: "manaso ussannattā 'manussā' ti" ("They are called 'humans' because of their superiority of mind" MA. ii. 37).

as can be read in the scripture, the Buddha compares obtaining the rarity of the human state to the arising of a Buddha

what it means is it is rare to be born with a mind that takes an interest in the Buddha-Dhamma & realising the Four Noble Truths

kind regards