DiscussWorldIssues - Socio-Economic Religion and Political Uncensored Debate - View Single Post - Hey Bibi

**Assentesy** · 01-03-2010, 02:58 PM

Well according to yr logic, Iran can build nukes but God will deflect them if they get shot at us.

Histradut why don't you go out on strike as you aren't saying anything productive.

Lol. I agree with him though, I don't think Iran would nuke Israel, they know that the same thing would happen to them, and Israel controls some holy sites for them as well.

I do believe though that if they get the bomb we will see:

1) An increase in the support of Hamas and Hezbollah for attacking Israel. That doesn't necessarily mean an increase of terrorism, but they will be strengthened in Gaza and Lebanon respectively.

2) An overall increase in Iranian meddling and influence across the Middle East and maybe beyond the Middle East, which will lead to an answer from Sunni Arab countries, probably nuclear proliferation, containment and a Middle Eastern cold war, with Iran and co against Sunni Arabs and Israel, which will cooperate covertly (in a similar way Iran and Israel cooperated during the Iran-Iraq war).

Obviously the West won't support Iran, while Russia and China will support Iran covertly (the same way they have been doing until now). This may lead for pressure on both Israel and the PA to get to a peace deal, and an attempt to woo Syria on leaving Iran's sphere of influence, which means pressure on Israel to get a peace deal with Syria as well, though I guess Syria would in practice act as a bridge between both sides and at least partially disconnect itself from Hamas and Hezbollah, I don't know, but if for instance Israel got to a peace deal with Syria I don't see any reason for Israel to support any sort of counterweight to their influence in Lebanon, IMHO. In fact Israel could tell the Syirians that if they stop supporting Hezbollah and Hamas, they can take over Lebanon (killing multiple birds with one shot). Turkey would play the role of a regional mediator as well, and Iraq may be divided hopefully with Kurdistan declaring independence and Sunni and Shia areas separating from each other or entering a civil war once Americans GTFO.

3) The set up of an ugly precedent and a de facto collapse of the NPT. I mean, if they get the bomb without leaving the NPT, why would the rest of the world follow it? I think this is the most dangerous consequence of Iran's actions, as they will have a big effect all over the world, and will probably lead to much more instability, worldwide. I think this is by far the most dangerous effect of a nuclear Iran.

I think the consequences of a military action would be the death of the rising opposition to the regime, chaos in the oil market which could impact the world economy (we don't really need that), chaos across the Middle East, and the program would only be delayed, several years later they could end up having a bigger program. This is assuming that the strike doesn't end up being a failure of epic proportions, which is a possibility as well. Also, with the revealing of the existence of this other reactor in Qom I wouldn't rule out if they have more reactors in other regions, which would make the attack even harder (because now Israel would have to hit 2 reactors, right?).

I think they will end up having nukes, even if Israel and the US strike Iran, if they don't get them by 2011-2012, they will have them in 2020. And I'm assuming a successful attack on the reactors, which is far from guaranteed.

The only way of ending this is to get rid of the regime, and that can only be reliably done by Iranians themselves.

01-03-2010, 02:58 PM	#1
Assentesy Join Date Oct 2005 Posts 435 Senior Member	Well according to yr logic, Iran can build nukes but God will deflect them if they get shot at us. Histradut why don't you go out on strike as you aren't saying anything productive. Lol. I agree with him though, I don't think Iran would nuke Israel, they know that the same thing would happen to them, and Israel controls some holy sites for them as well. I do believe though that if they get the bomb we will see: 1) An increase in the support of Hamas and Hezbollah for attacking Israel. That doesn't necessarily mean an increase of terrorism, but they will be strengthened in Gaza and Lebanon respectively. 2) An overall increase in Iranian meddling and influence across the Middle East and maybe beyond the Middle East, which will lead to an answer from Sunni Arab countries, probably nuclear proliferation, containment and a Middle Eastern cold war, with Iran and co against Sunni Arabs and Israel, which will cooperate covertly (in a similar way Iran and Israel cooperated during the Iran-Iraq war). Obviously the West won't support Iran, while Russia and China will support Iran covertly (the same way they have been doing until now). This may lead for pressure on both Israel and the PA to get to a peace deal, and an attempt to woo Syria on leaving Iran's sphere of influence, which means pressure on Israel to get a peace deal with Syria as well, though I guess Syria would in practice act as a bridge between both sides and at least partially disconnect itself from Hamas and Hezbollah, I don't know, but if for instance Israel got to a peace deal with Syria I don't see any reason for Israel to support any sort of counterweight to their influence in Lebanon, IMHO. In fact Israel could tell the Syirians that if they stop supporting Hezbollah and Hamas, they can take over Lebanon (killing multiple birds with one shot). Turkey would play the role of a regional mediator as well, and Iraq may be divided hopefully with Kurdistan declaring independence and Sunni and Shia areas separating from each other or entering a civil war once Americans GTFO. 3) The set up of an ugly precedent and a de facto collapse of the NPT. I mean, if they get the bomb without leaving the NPT, why would the rest of the world follow it? I think this is the most dangerous consequence of Iran's actions, as they will have a big effect all over the world, and will probably lead to much more instability, worldwide. I think this is by far the most dangerous effect of a nuclear Iran. I think the consequences of a military action would be the death of the rising opposition to the regime, chaos in the oil market which could impact the world economy (we don't really need that), chaos across the Middle East, and the program would only be delayed, several years later they could end up having a bigger program. This is assuming that the strike doesn't end up being a failure of epic proportions, which is a possibility as well. Also, with the revealing of the existence of this other reactor in Qom I wouldn't rule out if they have more reactors in other regions, which would make the attack even harder (because now Israel would have to hit 2 reactors, right?). I think they will end up having nukes, even if Israel and the US strike Iran, if they don't get them by 2011-2012, they will have them in 2020. And I'm assuming a successful attack on the reactors, which is far from guaranteed. The only way of ending this is to get rid of the regime, and that can only be reliably done by Iranians themselves.
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