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Old 05-19-2010, 11:56 PM   #30
N9NACzws

Join Date
Oct 2005
Posts
494
Senior Member
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The BIS has a paper on "The housing meltdown: Why did it happen in the United States?" It is written by Luci Ellis, now the head of financial stability at RBA.

It seems like the housing situation in USA will be down for the next few years at least (or even longer, but perhaps not as decade long as Japan).
One of the key reason is the tax deductable interest. (see sect 3.2)

But it is hard to say if she is right, she also claim that there is no Housing Bubble in Australia. hahaha

I will know when I sell my Perth houses. I have interested buyers already calling the builder.

It is hard to time the market to make some capital gains on US housing. Not with the kind of unemployment levels in the US currently. People tend to be mobile and rent when jobs are scarce.
So Lucy Ellis has just confirmed that Australians will never enjoy mortgage interest deductability on thier primary properties? And THAT'S the reason for the housing crisis? How come the 1098 deductable never caused an issue in the countless years since it was avaiable to taxpayers? Overbuilding, and loose credit has nothing to do with it? What about the London designed CDOs Wall St ended up making viral?

I think the RBA is just trying to make its case in the light of ever increasing interest rates. It would be better to openly declare conservatism in credit standards in this case.
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