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**Wvq9InTM** · 02-03-2009, 09:20 PM

300,000 jobs to go despite Kevin Rudd's economic stimulus

The Daily Telegraph
February 04, 2009 12:01am

MORE than 300,000 Australians will lose their jobs in the next 18 months if the Rudd Government's latest unemployment forecast is realised.

The Government is tipping the jobless rate to hit 7 per cent next year, taking the number out of work to almost 800,000.

The gloomy figures coincided with Harvey Norman announcing it was closing five of its OFIS stores - four of them in NSW - and rumours that Qantas was on the verge of another round of extensive job cuts, The Daily Telegraph reports.

The fears remain despite Mr Rudd pledging to save at least 90,000 jobs through the Government's stimulus package.

However, some economists believe the Government has drastically underplayed the anticipated job losses.

JP Morgan chief economist Helen Kevens told The Daily Telegraph an unemployment figure of 9 per cent was more likely in 2010, with 7 per cent to be reached before the end of this year.

Under that scenario - last seen under the reign of former Labor PM Paul Keating - the number of Australians out of work would climb to just short of a million.

"In our forecasts, we are going to see a significant slide in local labour market conditions over the next 12 months," Ms Kevens said.

"We are expecting the unemployment rate to double by the end of 2010 ... to just under 9 per cent."

Commonwealth Bank senior economist Michael Workman said a dramatic surge from current unemployment levels of 4.6 per cent to 7 per cent was not unprecedented.

"It's gloomy, but it's quite realistic. Seven per cent is quite feasible," Mr Workman said.

"The shift from the low fours to 7 per cent, that's almost three percentage points and that's in line with what happened in the 1990s recession."

Harvey Norman chairman Gerry Harvey, who hinted last week he would shut up to 10 underperforming stores, highlighted the dire jobs outlook, saying his newly opened OFIS office supply stores were not making money.

"They will be starting to close down now and they will be closed before the end of June," Mr Harvey said and added that some staff would be redeployed.

Meanwhile, Qantas refused to rule out cuts as it prepares today to announce a weakened profit result and plans to raise more capital barely six months after chopping 1500 administration jobs.

The airline's shares were placed in a trading halt yesterday while "capital management initiatives" are finalised.

02-03-2009, 09:20 PM	#3
Wvq9InTM Join Date Oct 2005 Posts 523 Senior Member	300,000 jobs to go despite Kevin Rudd's economic stimulus The Daily Telegraph February 04, 2009 12:01am MORE than 300,000 Australians will lose their jobs in the next 18 months if the Rudd Government's latest unemployment forecast is realised. The Government is tipping the jobless rate to hit 7 per cent next year, taking the number out of work to almost 800,000. The gloomy figures coincided with Harvey Norman announcing it was closing five of its OFIS stores - four of them in NSW - and rumours that Qantas was on the verge of another round of extensive job cuts, The Daily Telegraph reports. The fears remain despite Mr Rudd pledging to save at least 90,000 jobs through the Government's stimulus package. However, some economists believe the Government has drastically underplayed the anticipated job losses. JP Morgan chief economist Helen Kevens told The Daily Telegraph an unemployment figure of 9 per cent was more likely in 2010, with 7 per cent to be reached before the end of this year. Under that scenario - last seen under the reign of former Labor PM Paul Keating - the number of Australians out of work would climb to just short of a million. "In our forecasts, we are going to see a significant slide in local labour market conditions over the next 12 months," Ms Kevens said. "We are expecting the unemployment rate to double by the end of 2010 ... to just under 9 per cent." Commonwealth Bank senior economist Michael Workman said a dramatic surge from current unemployment levels of 4.6 per cent to 7 per cent was not unprecedented. "It's gloomy, but it's quite realistic. Seven per cent is quite feasible," Mr Workman said. "The shift from the low fours to 7 per cent, that's almost three percentage points and that's in line with what happened in the 1990s recession." Harvey Norman chairman Gerry Harvey, who hinted last week he would shut up to 10 underperforming stores, highlighted the dire jobs outlook, saying his newly opened OFIS office supply stores were not making money. "They will be starting to close down now and they will be closed before the end of June," Mr Harvey said and added that some staff would be redeployed. Meanwhile, Qantas refused to rule out cuts as it prepares today to announce a weakened profit result and plans to raise more capital barely six months after chopping 1500 administration jobs. The airline's shares were placed in a trading halt yesterday while "capital management initiatives" are finalised.
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