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'India, China To Surpass GDP Of All Economies, Except US & Japan, By 2025'
14 Feb 2009, 0243 hrs IST, ET Bureau

NEW DELHI: In a glimpse of what the Obama administration thinks about India and its leaders, an intelligence official in the administration has
said that Indian leaders would seek benefits of "American influence, trade, and technology" but would "often adopt" positions contrary to those favoured by the US.

This statement was made by National Intelligence director Dennis Blair in a testimony to the US Senate.

In the testimony on the 'annual threat assessment of the intelligence community' for the Senate select committee on intelligence. Nevertheless, Mr Blair also said that strong ties with the US would give India confidence to deal with China and mitigate the dangers posed by Pakistan.

"On the global stage, Indian leaders will continue to follow an independent course characterised by economic and political pragmatism. New Delhi will not automatically support or oppose positions favoured by the United States or any other major power," he said, and added, "Nonetheless, good relations with the United States will be essential for India to realise its global ambitions.

This assessment comes at a time when there is still unease within the government about the shape of the Indo-US ties under the new administration.

Even though the Obama administration has emphasised that it is keen to continue the course of the bilateral relationship with India, there are doubts, which stem from earlier experiences with Democrat administrations, about how this will shape up in the future.

Another assessment from the Obama administration revolves around India’s economic growth. Mr Blair concludes that Indian governments will need to undertake economic reforms to push the economy.

"To sustain rapid growth, Indian governments also must maintain the political support for economic reforms needed to drive the expanding economy," he said.

Mr Blair said that India and China are restoring the positions they held in the eighteenth century. "These two countries are likely to surpass the GDP of all other economies except the United States and Japan by 2025," he said. But added that the momentum of India’s economic growth will be hit by the global slowdown.

He further said that India is worried by the growth of China but would not adopt a position of confrontation. "India will be concerned about China during the coming decade because of Beijing’s political and economic power and its ability to project military force regionally, but Indian leaders will strive to avoid confrontation with China," he said.

On India-Pakistan, Mr Blair said that the possession of nuclear weapons is a deterrent and possibly preventing the current tension from escalating into a war.

"I think there are a number of factors, that would perhaps change the attitude that was there in 1947. One certainly is the possession of nuclear weapons by both sides," Blair said in response to a question from Senator Jay Rockefeller.

Mr Blair said that efforts by Indian and Pakistan leaders to improve relations would fail unless Islamabad, for its part, takes meaningful steps to cut support to anti-Indian militant groups and India trues to allay Pakistan’s security concerns.
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