I think we are viewing things skewed because of hindsight. I distinctly remember people saying that even though Roger won Madrid, Rafa and Novak were the favorites for Roland Garros, because of their performance during the entire clay season and because the Madrid surface was much different from Paris. How could anybody predict that Novak would be in a slump just after having played one of his best ever matches on clay? I mean it's true that Novak didn't play with much energy against PEHK, but why would that not be a surprise at that time?