Oh, I completely agree that Davydenko and Soderling can take out Federer and that Federer isn't looking like he is in his top form yet. I don't think though that an upset can happen because of overconfidence. Roger has been the overwhelming favorite in slams lots and lots of times; if he was to be upset in a slam due to complacency, he'd have been in 05 or 06. But he can totally be outplayed by a hard-hitting Soderling or Davydenko.