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Old 09-04-2006, 08:00 AM   #3
7HlBQS8j

Join Date
Oct 2005
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448
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Default $VBET$ New England Patriots vs. Oakland Raiders
Why To Watch
WR Randy Moss wearing a new Raiders uniform on national TV in the NFL season opener is intriguing enough on its own, but there are a lot of other compelling storylines in this game. The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Patriots are without coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennell and staring ILBs Tedy Bruschi and Ted Johnson. As good as they have been, can they overcome that much change in one offseason?

Moss isn't the only new Raider on offense. The team signed RB Lamont Jordan from the Jets to help provide balance. But with a suspect defense, the Raiders might be forced to outscore the Pats in a prime-time shoot-out.

When the Raiders have the ball
Rushing:
The biggest change the Raiders must make in their 2005 run game, and especially against the Pats, is to be committed to it. In 2004, they ranked last in the NFL in time of possession and rushing attempts with only 327, about 20 per game. The Raiders want to give new RB Lamont Jordan 300 or more carries, and they want to do it against soft defenses that have to concentrate on stopping the perimeter passing game, meaning fewer eight-man fronts.


The Pats have been up and down in their interior run defense in the preseason, and both inside linebackers -- Monty Beisel and Chad Brown -- have been inconsistent in their reads and quickness to fill the holes behind big NT Vince Wilfork. The Raiders offensive line is big and physical and will try to get a good push. Still, the reads for the Pats inside linebackers won't be difficult.

Look for Oakland to spread the field with three- and four-receiver sets designed to not only force the Pats into nicked personnel, but also to keep SS Rodney Harrison in coverage and not allow him to creep up into the box in run support. If Oakland can accomplish that, Jordan will have good angles and room to run.

Passing: If QB Kerry Collins has quality pass protection against the Pats' defense, he might be able to have some success against a work-in-progress secondary. New England does not have a legitimate shut-down corner that can single cover WRs Randy Moss or Jerry Porter.

Instead, the Patriots likely will be forced to use some bracket coverage with SS Harrison possibly rolling towards Moss, and some press coverage with deep help over the top, which also keeps Harrison in better run-support position. If Harrison plays a lot of deep-half schemes, such as Cover 2, look for Oakland to use Moss on "9 routes," deep patterns designed for the receiver to run by the defensive back and make it tough for the safety to get to the perimeter.

If Collins can throw in some play-action fakes to freeze FS Eugene Wilson, it can also open up the backside for Jerry Porter and leave No. 3 WR Ronald Curry with single coverage. You would think the Pats would play it safe with a lot of cover schemes against the passing game, but they are totally unpredictable -- no matter what their personnel is on the field. If the Pats back off in coverage, look for Collins to dump off to his backs and tight ends.

When the Patriots have the ball
Rushing:
Corey Dillon may not have great breakaway speed, but he still has power, explosiveness and a lethal stiff-arm -- the perfect combo against a Raiders' defense that doesn't match up well against a physical runner.

The Pats' offensive line is not overly physical, but it does a nice job of pulling and trapping. When the linemen are on the move and utilizing good run angles, they give Dillon a lot of good lanes to work through. The theoretical anchors of the Raiders interior run defense -- DTs Warren Sapp and Ted Washington -- were statues a year ago, with virtually no production. Sapp should be a better fit in the switch from a 3-4 front to a 4-3 scheme, where he can line up at right defensive tackle. Look for New England to run some backside counter plays that start right and cut back to the left -- they will run right at Sapp to negate his penetration.

For the Raiders to have any success against Dillon, their linebackers will have to step up and fill quickly and prevent Dillon from getting a full head of steam. They also could benefit from pre-snap movement and shifts, which could confuse the Pats' blocking angles and pre-snap reads. If the Raiders don't improve their tackling from last year, Dillon will get a lot of yards after contact.

Passing: Don't be surprised if the Pats show the Raiders some empty backfield and multi-receiver sets right off the bat, like they did a year ago against Indianapolis in the season opener. They can do it with base personnel on the field, which makes it hard for the Raiders to use their defensive substitution packages. TE Ben Watson and FB Patrick Pass both can split out wide, along with three receivers, which gives New England a five-wide look that provides tough man-to-man match-ups for the Raiders.

Not only do the Raiders lack experience at the corner position, with the exception of the overrated Charles Woodson, they also seem to lack discipline. They are an erratic team when it comes to tackling, bad news against a disciplined New England passing attack. If the pass rush doesn't hurry Tom Brady's throws, he can pick the defense apart, especially with his third, fourth and fifth options in the passing game matched up against the Raiders' linebackers and safeties. Also, look for Brady to use play-action fakes to Dillon to freeze the Raiders defenders and take advantage of his ability to throw the long ball and exploit sloppy Oakland coverage.
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