[AAAESLLESO]

Don't you believe that Iran is capable to close Hormuz?

Well they tried that before and we have been there ever since. Remember the Tanker Wars? Operation Earnest Will? This was the start of US military involvement in the Persian Gulf.

Remember Iraq fucking nailed the USS Stark with two exocet missiles, remember the USS Roberts getting blasted by an Iranian mine. Remember we destroyed half the Iranian navy in like a day afterwards and took out their oil platforms??

But that is in the past. The relevant thing is that we just do not know how long they could close Hormuz, and that is enough to scare tankers away. If they even hit one oil prices will go through the roof temporarily.

If they hit several tankers, and they do have the capability to fuck up some merchant vessels... well there is only so many tankers and bulk carriers in the world and they take a long fucking time to build/repair/replace. There are no "extra tankers" or bulk carriers sitting around to replace them. It would cause a supply disruption.

And if they hit a US warship, well, double that skyrocketing oil price effect. Speculators would go nuts.

But if Iran tries that shit again while Bush is in office that would probably be the end of that regime IMO.

I think it would be game on, no punches pulled. And the shit will hit the fan.

I don't think Iran will do that, not while W is in office.