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**gkruCRi1** · 01-20-2007, 10:29 PM

Precisely, so think how many will vote for the GOP simply because its a vote against Hillary? And the fact that if we nominate a social conservative that will rally the entire GOP base, so we'll have all of the GOP vote and a lot of the Anti-Hillary vote which will be more than enough.

On the other hand if we nominate a Guiliani or even God Forbid McCain then we'll easily carry the independant and swing voters with a slight loss of the base.

Either way we win.

The bases for both are already going to be rallied.

True 'Anti-Hillary' voters come from committed Republican circles, IMO. Picking a social conservative will make others, even if they would have rathered Obama or Edwards, etc, to choose Hillary unless they are already social conservatives, who in turn will vote for the Rep anyway.

Guiliani might have crossover appeal (and if he wins NY, will take away a huge number of electoral votes for the Reps that now mostly go to the Dems), but will the GOP base back him in the primary and rally hard to vote him in? He's a social liberal, a hawkish New York Democrat for all intents and purposes. He also has alot of personal baggage, something the base may not also like.

I think McCain already has problems. He is a social conservative, yet social conservatives don't like him at all. He is already getting pidgeonholed as being an Iraq escalator, and this theme will be driven hard and fast, fair and foul, on him. Independents are tracking left on social issue and Iraq. Many like McCain's mavarick style, but not his social conservative views and Iraq hawkishness even this late in the war.

Your thoughts?

01-20-2007, 10:29 PM	#29
gkruCRi1 Join Date Oct 2005 Posts 505 Senior Member	Precisely, so think how many will vote for the GOP simply because its a vote against Hillary? And the fact that if we nominate a social conservative that will rally the entire GOP base, so we'll have all of the GOP vote and a lot of the Anti-Hillary vote which will be more than enough. On the other hand if we nominate a Guiliani or even God Forbid McCain then we'll easily carry the independant and swing voters with a slight loss of the base. Either way we win. The bases for both are already going to be rallied. True 'Anti-Hillary' voters come from committed Republican circles, IMO. Picking a social conservative will make others, even if they would have rathered Obama or Edwards, etc, to choose Hillary unless they are already social conservatives, who in turn will vote for the Rep anyway. Guiliani might have crossover appeal (and if he wins NY, will take away a huge number of electoral votes for the Reps that now mostly go to the Dems), but will the GOP base back him in the primary and rally hard to vote him in? He's a social liberal, a hawkish New York Democrat for all intents and purposes. He also has alot of personal baggage, something the base may not also like. I think McCain already has problems. He is a social conservative, yet social conservatives don't like him at all. He is already getting pidgeonholed as being an Iraq escalator, and this theme will be driven hard and fast, fair and foul, on him. Independents are tracking left on social issue and Iraq. Many like McCain's mavarick style, but not his social conservative views and Iraq hawkishness even this late in the war. Your thoughts?
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