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**corolaelwis** · 01-21-2007, 08:31 PM

The bases for both are already going to be rallied.

True 'Anti-Hillary' voters come from committed Republican circles, IMO. Picking a social conservative will make others, even if they would have rathered Obama or Edwards, etc, to choose Hillary unless they are already social conservatives, who in turn will vote for the Rep anyway.

Guiliani might have crossover appeal (and if he wins NY, will take away a huge number of electoral votes for the Reps that now mostly go to the Dems), but will the GOP base back him in the primary and rally hard to vote him in? He's a social liberal, a hawkish New York Democrat for all intents and purposes. He also has alot of personal baggage, something the base may not also like.

I think McCain already has problems. He is a social conservative, yet social conservatives don't like him at all. He is already getting pidgeonholed as being an Iraq escalator, and this theme will be driven hard and fast, fair and foul, on him. Independents are tracking left on social issue and Iraq. Many like McCain's mavarick style, but not his social conservative views and Iraq hawkishness even this late in the war.

Your thoughts?

The part above where i strongly disagree is that the notion of the anti-Hillary vote being mainly GOP voters. I think she is villified by the GOP but independants have a stronger unfavorable than favorable opinion of her. Or was it the case in 2004 that the anti-Bush vote was from Dems? If the independant were the ones furious at Bush in 2004 then they'll be furious at Hillary come 2008...or if it was party lined then Hilary might actually win if she actually had a grass roots base to rally, i'll go and refference a point that you made earlier which may have some food for thought.

01-21-2007, 08:31 PM	#40
corolaelwis Join Date Oct 2005 Posts 470 Senior Member	The bases for both are already going to be rallied. True 'Anti-Hillary' voters come from committed Republican circles, IMO. Picking a social conservative will make others, even if they would have rathered Obama or Edwards, etc, to choose Hillary unless they are already social conservatives, who in turn will vote for the Rep anyway. Guiliani might have crossover appeal (and if he wins NY, will take away a huge number of electoral votes for the Reps that now mostly go to the Dems), but will the GOP base back him in the primary and rally hard to vote him in? He's a social liberal, a hawkish New York Democrat for all intents and purposes. He also has alot of personal baggage, something the base may not also like. I think McCain already has problems. He is a social conservative, yet social conservatives don't like him at all. He is already getting pidgeonholed as being an Iraq escalator, and this theme will be driven hard and fast, fair and foul, on him. Independents are tracking left on social issue and Iraq. Many like McCain's mavarick style, but not his social conservative views and Iraq hawkishness even this late in the war. Your thoughts? The part above where i strongly disagree is that the notion of the anti-Hillary vote being mainly GOP voters. I think she is villified by the GOP but independants have a stronger unfavorable than favorable opinion of her. Or was it the case in 2004 that the anti-Bush vote was from Dems? If the independant were the ones furious at Bush in 2004 then they'll be furious at Hillary come 2008...or if it was party lined then Hilary might actually win if she actually had a grass roots base to rally, i'll go and refference a point that you made earlier which may have some food for thought.
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