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Old 12-11-2010, 11:34 PM   #34
foodselfdourileka

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Nov 2005
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515
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China will be a world power in ever sense within a few years. There is no way to know how aggressive it will be. The balance of power in Asia will obviously be completely transformed by the presence of a huge (in every sense) power in their midst.

There are probably about 400 million men available for military service in China. The potential of such a military is unimaginable.

The US will move rapidly away from involvement in the world outside of trade and economic ties. The gap will be filled by China and India in Asia, and Islamic nations in the middle east and eventually in Europe. They are the dynamic powers of the new century.

Nevertheless, I believe India and Pakistan are the most likely foes to start another world war. They have enormous populations and a long lasting, deeply rooted enmity. Above all, they are nuclear powers.

A full scale war would easily explode beyond a regional issue like Kashmir. And other nations will have to take sides.

Islamic nations would obviously rush to defend Pakistan.

China has a very volatile relationship with India, and might side with either nation.

Europe would have to take sides at some point and would certainly not offend the Islamic world.

However, Russia and India are very close allies - at least right now.

Australia is rapidly becoming an economic colony of China and is moving quickly away from the US, so it will probably have to take sides with whatever nation China supports.

Brazil is turning into a major power. How would it respond? The nations of Africa are enjoying large investments from China. They would likely side with China - except in those nations with large Muslim populations.

The US might take either side. If India is chosen, the break with Europe and the Muslim nations of the world will be complete and permanent. If Pakistan is chosen, that will mean Russia will once again be an enemy.

If it escalates to nuclear war, it may be over in India and Pakistan very quickly, but how would the rest of the world respond? Would the war continue elsewhere? Would Iran respond with its own bomb? And then Israel?

Would Japan side with China? It is extremely unlikely considering the history of relations between those nations. Yet would any nation dare stand up to China?

It is a horrifying scenario but any such scenario must take into consideration the new balance of power.
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