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**Anavaralo** · 05-05-2010, 05:25 PM

Just how competent are the terrorists? The NY Times Square bomber was caught in 48 hours because he among other dumb things used a vehicle he purchased under his own name and a plane ticket also under his own name.

The shoe bomber last Christmas was also very incompetent and was unsuccessful.

In Afghanistan while we are seeing some more complex attacks with coordinated elements acting in unison, we still generally see the bad guys doing some real dumb things. The most common is that they brag about attacks before they happen which results in many intelligence successes in preventing attacks.

The 9/11 attackers were more sophisticated than the average terrorist now but the main reason they were as successful in conducting their operations is that many different security and intelligence were not on the alert or as vigilant as they should or could have been. Something as simple as the current tighter screening would have prevented the attacks by keeping the box cutters off the flights. While they could have gotten the weapons through security by other means, they would have opened their operation to a wider number of participants thus increasing the potential for breaching operational security and being exposed beforehand.

I’m not taking anything away from the intelligence community in their efforts as I have seen firsthand some of their unsung successes. I’m just pointing out that the average terrorist has the operational competence of a grade school gang of bullies.

I think it would be dangerous to underestimate their capabilities or competency. I think the examples you cite were very loosely coordinated and maybe not representative of the larger threat.

One thing that's makes it difficult for terrorists to make bombs is the availability of materials/components. High explosives are regulated and explosive components that are available are now either regulated or tracked when they're bought in the large quantities needed.

However, it's still far from impossible to make a functional detonator/bomb that can be highly explosive. Actually, all it would have taken is a different ignition methodology and the components that were in that SUV could have wreaked major havoc.

Experience, as Thorhammer mentioned, is also an important factor that was missing from the last few domestic attempts. In Iraq/Pakistan insurgents became pretty adept at making IED's with practice and the ability to freely meet up and share/learn/teach/plant/detonate. They are very low tech, simple devices, but some experience with tweaking/designing probably produces much more effective devices.

05-05-2010, 05:25 PM	#26
Anavaralo Join Date Oct 2005 Posts 460 Senior Member	Just how competent are the terrorists? The NY Times Square bomber was caught in 48 hours because he among other dumb things used a vehicle he purchased under his own name and a plane ticket also under his own name. The shoe bomber last Christmas was also very incompetent and was unsuccessful. In Afghanistan while we are seeing some more complex attacks with coordinated elements acting in unison, we still generally see the bad guys doing some real dumb things. The most common is that they brag about attacks before they happen which results in many intelligence successes in preventing attacks. The 9/11 attackers were more sophisticated than the average terrorist now but the main reason they were as successful in conducting their operations is that many different security and intelligence were not on the alert or as vigilant as they should or could have been. Something as simple as the current tighter screening would have prevented the attacks by keeping the box cutters off the flights. While they could have gotten the weapons through security by other means, they would have opened their operation to a wider number of participants thus increasing the potential for breaching operational security and being exposed beforehand. I’m not taking anything away from the intelligence community in their efforts as I have seen firsthand some of their unsung successes. I’m just pointing out that the average terrorist has the operational competence of a grade school gang of bullies. I think it would be dangerous to underestimate their capabilities or competency. I think the examples you cite were very loosely coordinated and maybe not representative of the larger threat. One thing that's makes it difficult for terrorists to make bombs is the availability of materials/components. High explosives are regulated and explosive components that are available are now either regulated or tracked when they're bought in the large quantities needed. However, it's still far from impossible to make a functional detonator/bomb that can be highly explosive. Actually, all it would have taken is a different ignition methodology and the components that were in that SUV could have wreaked major havoc. Experience, as Thorhammer mentioned, is also an important factor that was missing from the last few domestic attempts. In Iraq/Pakistan insurgents became pretty adept at making IED's with practice and the ability to freely meet up and share/learn/teach/plant/detonate. They are very low tech, simple devices, but some experience with tweaking/designing probably produces much more effective devices.
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