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**uchetrip** · 12-06-2011, 02:37 AM

So is this one of those probability proofs that technically can be made to seem weirder than it actually is?

I fully understand probability trees and how you multiply down the branches and what have you, but that doesn't take away from the fact that at the 2nd decision, there is a 50/50 chance it's behind either door.

But you made a 1 in 3 to get to 50/50. You could have made a 1 in 3 and won the car, but you didn't, so you're now being offered a 50/50 that had 2 in 3 ways of being offered. You have been provided with more information than a straight 50/50 choice.

12-06-2011, 02:37 AM	#5
uchetrip Join Date Oct 2005 Posts 518 Senior Member	So is this one of those probability proofs that technically can be made to seem weirder than it actually is? I fully understand probability trees and how you multiply down the branches and what have you, but that doesn't take away from the fact that at the 2nd decision, there is a 50/50 chance it's behind either door. But you made a 1 in 3 to get to 50/50. You could have made a 1 in 3 and won the car, but you didn't, so you're now being offered a 50/50 that had 2 in 3 ways of being offered. You have been provided with more information than a straight 50/50 choice.
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