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**Brewpralgar** · 08-29-2012, 10:31 PM

When it happens it will be smaller. 125-150 kt (kilotons)

It will be an air burst… carried in a general aviation plane on a ‘legitimate flight plan’ like coming out of Africa. About 500-1,000 feet about the Hudson maybe as far north as 49th street… likely further south near the West Village. Maybe even in the upper harbor at or near Battery Park (and the once and future World Trade Center)

It might look something like this:

HYDESim: High-Yield Detonation Effects Simulator

Assuming it’s on a work day, then we should expect about 500k dead from the blast, the structural damage and the fires after. 500k dead in the first 15-30 minutes.

While most of the FDNY would escape destruction in the blast, most of it would not get to the scene due to the damage. Plans exist, on the federal state and local level but face it, nothing would work really well.

Everything south of Huston would be down… north of Huston it would be on fire. The fire would extend from Jersey City into Brooklyn. The docks would be down and severely damaged in Elisabeth, a major container port.

If the wind is from the northwest… something fairly common for New York, a big part of Brooklyn would be contaminated, causing hundreds of thousands more casualties.

30 days out likely we would see a total dead exceeding 1,000,000

The financial, news and entertainment industries would be crippled. The UN, likely, would leave the city. Millions of regular people would leave as well. The US would see something that we have not seen on 150 years: refugees.

Like following 9/11 the rest of the nation would remain physically untouched, but economically and emotionally ‘stopped dead;’

We will be cautioned not to ‘jump to conclusions’ Some people will explain that ‘America’s chickens have again come home to roost.’ Crowds in many a 3rd world country will be seen dancing and celebrating.

Our government will know within hours from where the fuel, enriched uranium or plutonium, came from. Not long after we will also know with some certainty who sent it.

If it’s the current administration in office, they could expect to get a sternly worded letter.

08-29-2012, 10:31 PM	#13
Brewpralgar Join Date Oct 2005 Posts 478 Senior Member	When it happens it will be smaller. 125-150 kt (kilotons) It will be an air burst… carried in a general aviation plane on a ‘legitimate flight plan’ like coming out of Africa. About 500-1,000 feet about the Hudson maybe as far north as 49th street… likely further south near the West Village. Maybe even in the upper harbor at or near Battery Park (and the once and future World Trade Center) It might look something like this: HYDESim: High-Yield Detonation Effects Simulator Assuming it’s on a work day, then we should expect about 500k dead from the blast, the structural damage and the fires after. 500k dead in the first 15-30 minutes. While most of the FDNY would escape destruction in the blast, most of it would not get to the scene due to the damage. Plans exist, on the federal state and local level but face it, nothing would work really well. Everything south of Huston would be down… north of Huston it would be on fire. The fire would extend from Jersey City into Brooklyn. The docks would be down and severely damaged in Elisabeth, a major container port. If the wind is from the northwest… something fairly common for New York, a big part of Brooklyn would be contaminated, causing hundreds of thousands more casualties. 30 days out likely we would see a total dead exceeding 1,000,000 The financial, news and entertainment industries would be crippled. The UN, likely, would leave the city. Millions of regular people would leave as well. The US would see something that we have not seen on 150 years: refugees. Like following 9/11 the rest of the nation would remain physically untouched, but economically and emotionally ‘stopped dead;’ We will be cautioned not to ‘jump to conclusions’ Some people will explain that ‘America’s chickens have again come home to roost.’ Crowds in many a 3rd world country will be seen dancing and celebrating. Our government will know within hours from where the fuel, enriched uranium or plutonium, came from. Not long after we will also know with some certainty who sent it. If it’s the current administration in office, they could expect to get a sternly worded letter.
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