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**kiosokkn** · 10-16-2007, 02:03 PM

Someone may have already mentioned it, but the real question is, how much time would we have to react? I believe that current technology allows us to monitor about 1% of the sky carefully enough to give us years or months warning. But the odd are that if we see something coming our way, we'd only have a few hours to respond, at best.

Any asteroid that poses a threat of impacting earth is an asteroid that has come our way thousands if not millions of times already.

Current technology allows us to assess a lot of possible collisions, for anything deemed a serious threat of actually impacting us anytime in the future. Since everything that has happened in the field of near earth asteroid collisions detection we could safely say that we will have a warning in the region of a few decades.

I never actually payed attention to this thread but there isnt a doubt in my mind that the ridiculous armageddon movie solution has been thrown around.
Right now, there is no absolute solution, if a collision was iminent we would be completely defenseless although the task seems simple, deflecting an asteroid in time is currently not possible, given how far the asteroid would have to be from us to make a correction in its trajectory actually matter.

Even a minor deflection, or even seemingly negligable would do the job if we could pull it off, the real question is for how long. if we had 10 or 20 years warning and had the means to slow down or speed up an asteroid on its trajectory by just 1 mile an hour. the asteroid would come no where near us and would completely miss earth. for 10 years that would be a difference of 87,650 miles or for 20 years it would be 175,300 miles. Hell given enough time slowing one down by an inch an hour could make a huge difference.

The only way a nuke would be used was if they could guarantee that the asteroid would remain intact. the nuke could detonate far enough away from the asteroid to just hit it with enough force to barely slow it down. Only problem i can see is guiding a nuke through space for such a long time, were talking maybe 10 plus years to make a tiny nudge matter in the long term trajectory.

An actual asteroid impact would no doubt kill thousands or millions in an area. Right now our only way of saving lives is to evacuate where ever the asteroid may strike. knowing its trajectory, speed, size and composition is really important.

If anyone was stupid enough to blow up an asteroid on a collision course with earth into hundredths, thousands or millions of pieces, it would be worse than any one asteroid. an area can be evacuated. having millions of smaller pieces of it coming at us would devastate much more than 50% of the earths surface (accounting for the ones that would almost miss us and be pulled in by earths gravity i'd say it could be closer to 80% of earths surface at risk from such a threat).

If we ever do have to face celestial bombardment then hope its one big chunk of rock and not thousands or millions coming at us.

10-16-2007, 02:03 PM	#15
kiosokkn Join Date Nov 2005 Posts 442 Senior Member	Someone may have already mentioned it, but the real question is, how much time would we have to react? I believe that current technology allows us to monitor about 1% of the sky carefully enough to give us years or months warning. But the odd are that if we see something coming our way, we'd only have a few hours to respond, at best. Any asteroid that poses a threat of impacting earth is an asteroid that has come our way thousands if not millions of times already. Current technology allows us to assess a lot of possible collisions, for anything deemed a serious threat of actually impacting us anytime in the future. Since everything that has happened in the field of near earth asteroid collisions detection we could safely say that we will have a warning in the region of a few decades. I never actually payed attention to this thread but there isnt a doubt in my mind that the ridiculous armageddon movie solution has been thrown around. Right now, there is no absolute solution, if a collision was iminent we would be completely defenseless although the task seems simple, deflecting an asteroid in time is currently not possible, given how far the asteroid would have to be from us to make a correction in its trajectory actually matter. Even a minor deflection, or even seemingly negligable would do the job if we could pull it off, the real question is for how long. if we had 10 or 20 years warning and had the means to slow down or speed up an asteroid on its trajectory by just 1 mile an hour. the asteroid would come no where near us and would completely miss earth. for 10 years that would be a difference of 87,650 miles or for 20 years it would be 175,300 miles. Hell given enough time slowing one down by an inch an hour could make a huge difference. The only way a nuke would be used was if they could guarantee that the asteroid would remain intact. the nuke could detonate far enough away from the asteroid to just hit it with enough force to barely slow it down. Only problem i can see is guiding a nuke through space for such a long time, were talking maybe 10 plus years to make a tiny nudge matter in the long term trajectory. An actual asteroid impact would no doubt kill thousands or millions in an area. Right now our only way of saving lives is to evacuate where ever the asteroid may strike. knowing its trajectory, speed, size and composition is really important. If anyone was stupid enough to blow up an asteroid on a collision course with earth into hundredths, thousands or millions of pieces, it would be worse than any one asteroid. an area can be evacuated. having millions of smaller pieces of it coming at us would devastate much more than 50% of the earths surface (accounting for the ones that would almost miss us and be pulled in by earths gravity i'd say it could be closer to 80% of earths surface at risk from such a threat). If we ever do have to face celestial bombardment then hope its one big chunk of rock and not thousands or millions coming at us.
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