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**pharweqto** · 04-07-2007, 01:45 PM

I just noticed this thread, and I've been thinking about this a bit recently (read: today) so I hope nobody minds the bump.

I sometimes think that the ability to add up is one of the most important qualities in a good team shiai player.
Chuken

Starting scenarios

2/0 - strong advantage (can decide victory)

0/2 - strong disadvantage (must not lose)

1/0 - advantage

0/1 - disadvantage

1/1 or 0/0 - even (depends on honsuh)

[...]

decide win situations - 1
decide loss situations -1

[...]

Interestingly there are more situations where you will be called on to decide victory or loss than for taisho

The problem here is that you're assuming that all these outcomes are equally likely. They're not; for instance, a tie is three times more likely than being two ahead, since it can result from 1/2-1/2 and 1/2-1/2, 1-0 and 0-1, as well as 0-1 and 1-0.

I've calculated out the chances of deciding the game assuming that each of the 243 outcomes of a team match are equally likely (I don't know how accurate this is; perhaps ties are much rarer than scoring points, but let's go with it for now...). On average:

Chūken is in a position to win or lose the match 7.4% of the time.
Fukushou is in a position to win or lose 29.6% of the time.
Taishou is in a position to win, lose, or tie the match 63.0% of the time.
Obviously, jihou and senpou are never in such a position.

Obviously this doesn't speak to any of the psychological issues involved but if (and admittedly this is the weakest assumption here) my math is correct, fukushou, on average, decides the outcome of the match fully four times more often than chūken. That may be something to take into account when deciding how crucial each position is relative to the others.

04-07-2007, 01:45 PM	#26
pharweqto Join Date Nov 2005 Posts 367 Senior Member	I just noticed this thread, and I've been thinking about this a bit recently (read: today) so I hope nobody minds the bump. I sometimes think that the ability to add up is one of the most important qualities in a good team shiai player. Chuken Starting scenarios 2/0 - strong advantage (can decide victory) 0/2 - strong disadvantage (must not lose) 1/0 - advantage 0/1 - disadvantage 1/1 or 0/0 - even (depends on honsuh) [...] decide win situations - 1 decide loss situations -1 [...] Interestingly there are more situations where you will be called on to decide victory or loss than for taisho The problem here is that you're assuming that all these outcomes are equally likely. They're not; for instance, a tie is three times more likely than being two ahead, since it can result from 1/2-1/2 and 1/2-1/2, 1-0 and 0-1, as well as 0-1 and 1-0. I've calculated out the chances of deciding the game assuming that each of the 243 outcomes of a team match are equally likely (I don't know how accurate this is; perhaps ties are much rarer than scoring points, but let's go with it for now...). On average: Chūken is in a position to win or lose the match 7.4% of the time. Fukushou is in a position to win or lose 29.6% of the time. Taishou is in a position to win, lose, or tie the match 63.0% of the time. Obviously, jihou and senpou are never in such a position. Obviously this doesn't speak to any of the psychological issues involved but if (and admittedly this is the weakest assumption here) my math is correct, fukushou, on average, decides the outcome of the match fully four times more often than chūken. That may be something to take into account when deciding how crucial each position is relative to the others.
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