16-20 is to expect to win World champs and Olympics on the assumption we would not be able to mobilise significant state or private resources to accelerate it. No-one can guarantee results - obviously, but consistent L8's from several or many fencers should be being seen at 12 years, 8 at a stretch. There is also no reason why we should not aim or hope to get good results at any point much like we have seen for MFT in 2012, RK in 2004 and FM in 1992 (insert others here). More aggressive time targets may attract more sponsors and possibly more media interest but are more likely to fail, much in the same way that builders who deliberately quote low get lots of work and rarely complete any of it to the required standard.