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**Sapremolz** · 09-01-2012, 12:48 PM

lonesoullost3, great post!
Do you mean to imply that there will never be another superpower, in your opinion? Or are you just ruling out China?

I'm not ruling out the possibility of another superpower. On the contrary, I'm just pointing out it's not as easy as just having sustained 'rapid growth' on a rate of 12% a year. There needs to be some exogenous factor that causes a new superpower to arise. Look at how the US surpassed Europe: the combination of WW1 and WW2 absolutely devastated Europe.

In WW1 the US was not touched at home even though globally international trade suffered a drastic recession. During the interim between WW1 and 2, the whole world suffered a depression (a "Great" one in the U.S

). As a result, the whole world stayed at approximately the same relative economic levels.

In WW2, the US was hardly touched at home in an economic fashion. Pearl Harbour was a major event, yes, but not in an economic fashion (short term losses which is to be expected, but in the long run the market came back with a vengeance). And of course, PH was nothing compared to what was happening all across Europe. But the drastic long term economic hardships in Europe led to the US's ability to surpass Britain, France, and Germany. The US's economy was the most stable during WW2 and thus in 1945 it was the obvious foundation of which to bulid another world economy.

It would take another event of a degree similar to that of a world war for the US to be overtaken by a country - at least in my opinion. There would need to be some event which caused the US to fall behind in technology - because as I said in my previous post, technology is the key factor in determining who's the leader. However, with the clear majority of the US's economy dedicated to either services or technology (and services are always a result of technology), it would need to be a major event.

09-01-2012, 12:48 PM	#38
Sapremolz Join Date Oct 2005 Posts 356 Senior Member	lonesoullost3, great post! Do you mean to imply that there will never be another superpower, in your opinion? Or are you just ruling out China? I'm not ruling out the possibility of another superpower. On the contrary, I'm just pointing out it's not as easy as just having sustained 'rapid growth' on a rate of 12% a year. There needs to be some exogenous factor that causes a new superpower to arise. Look at how the US surpassed Europe: the combination of WW1 and WW2 absolutely devastated Europe. In WW1 the US was not touched at home even though globally international trade suffered a drastic recession. During the interim between WW1 and 2, the whole world suffered a depression (a "Great" one in the U.S ). As a result, the whole world stayed at approximately the same relative economic levels. In WW2, the US was hardly touched at home in an economic fashion. Pearl Harbour was a major event, yes, but not in an economic fashion (short term losses which is to be expected, but in the long run the market came back with a vengeance). And of course, PH was nothing compared to what was happening all across Europe. But the drastic long term economic hardships in Europe led to the US's ability to surpass Britain, France, and Germany. The US's economy was the most stable during WW2 and thus in 1945 it was the obvious foundation of which to bulid another world economy. It would take another event of a degree similar to that of a world war for the US to be overtaken by a country - at least in my opinion. There would need to be some event which caused the US to fall behind in technology - because as I said in my previous post, technology is the key factor in determining who's the leader. However, with the clear majority of the US's economy dedicated to either services or technology (and services are always a result of technology), it would need to be a major event.
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