[DoctoNilsonDen]

I think its still more probable that Coakley will win than Brown, but I would not be surprised if Brown won at this point. If Coakley wins, i think perversely the reason will be all the attention given to the race now. Brown's supporters are fired up, and in a special election at an odd time of year, with what would likely be terrible turnout, he would win with a fired up base- now that the Democratic party in Mass. has woken up, all the GOTV operations will be running on overtime due to panic, and perhaps the bulk of Dems. in Mass. who assumed they didn't need to vote cause the outcome was a done deal will actually go vote. If anything, all the publicity will remind a lot of people that there is an election on Tuesday, which would benefit Coakley more than Brown.