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**flnastyax** · 01-09-2011, 02:54 AM

Despite what we see here and on Philly.com, racists, homophobes, and religious zealots are (I hope) a minority in this country. Since, as you say, the GOP is attracting plenty of that majority, that would lead me to believe you were saying that 2012 would not be as close as 2008.

If someone suggested that the Phillies were attracting dupes and doles from NJ and PA, and I said, "they're attracting plenty of people from Delaware", that doesn't neccessarily lead to the conclusion that I'm suggesting that their attendance is increasing, only that their getting fans from places other than PA and NJ.

That said, if you are asking what I think will happen in 2012, it will depend on three things:

1 - is the unemployment rate over 8.5%
2 - does Obama face a REAL primary opponent (someone who can get 25% of the vote)
3 - does the GOP nominate a non-controversial candidate.

Right now, I think the answers will be yes, no, yes. Obama would be tough to beat, probably 60-40 odds of re-election, GOP will hold the house easily, and will pick up 2-5 seats in the Senate. I don't know if you'd consider that a closer election than 2008 or not.

01-09-2011, 02:54 AM	#14
flnastyax Join Date Oct 2005 Posts 454 Senior Member	Despite what we see here and on Philly.com, racists, homophobes, and religious zealots are (I hope) a minority in this country. Since, as you say, the GOP is attracting plenty of that majority, that would lead me to believe you were saying that 2012 would not be as close as 2008. If someone suggested that the Phillies were attracting dupes and doles from NJ and PA, and I said, "they're attracting plenty of people from Delaware", that doesn't neccessarily lead to the conclusion that I'm suggesting that their attendance is increasing, only that their getting fans from places other than PA and NJ. That said, if you are asking what I think will happen in 2012, it will depend on three things: 1 - is the unemployment rate over 8.5% 2 - does Obama face a REAL primary opponent (someone who can get 25% of the vote) 3 - does the GOP nominate a non-controversial candidate. Right now, I think the answers will be yes, no, yes. Obama would be tough to beat, probably 60-40 odds of re-election, GOP will hold the house easily, and will pick up 2-5 seats in the Senate. I don't know if you'd consider that a closer election than 2008 or not.
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