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**jojocomok** · 01-09-2011, 04:52 AM

If someone suggested that the Phillies were attracting dupes and doles from NJ and PA, and I said, "they're attracting plenty of people from Delaware", that doesn't neccessarily lead to the conclusion that I'm suggesting that their attendance is increasing, only that their getting fans from places other than PA and NJ.

That said, if you are asking what I think will happen in 2012, it will depend on three things:

1 - is the unemployment rate over 8.5%
2 - does Obama face a REAL primary opponent (someone who can get 25% of the vote)
3 - does the GOP nominate a non-controversial candidate.

Right now, I think the answers will be yes, no, yes. Obama would be tough to beat, probably 60-40 odds of re-election, GOP will hold the house easily, and will pick up 2-5 seats in the Senate. I don't know if you'd consider that a closer election than 2008 or not.

I think you've placed a safe bet with those guesses, except I may only slightly disagree one point #1. I'd say Average Joe feet on the ground doesn't actually care about the employment numbers unless it effects him/her directly. Parties wield unemployment numbers as though they're Excalibur, but let's just keep in mind that every talking head on MSNBC, Fox and CNN has a job while pointing out how bad it was/is/will be unless X guy gets in

01-09-2011, 04:52 AM	#6
jojocomok Join Date Oct 2005 Posts 458 Senior Member	If someone suggested that the Phillies were attracting dupes and doles from NJ and PA, and I said, "they're attracting plenty of people from Delaware", that doesn't neccessarily lead to the conclusion that I'm suggesting that their attendance is increasing, only that their getting fans from places other than PA and NJ. That said, if you are asking what I think will happen in 2012, it will depend on three things: 1 - is the unemployment rate over 8.5% 2 - does Obama face a REAL primary opponent (someone who can get 25% of the vote) 3 - does the GOP nominate a non-controversial candidate. Right now, I think the answers will be yes, no, yes. Obama would be tough to beat, probably 60-40 odds of re-election, GOP will hold the house easily, and will pick up 2-5 seats in the Senate. I don't know if you'd consider that a closer election than 2008 or not. I think you've placed a safe bet with those guesses, except I may only slightly disagree one point #1. I'd say Average Joe feet on the ground doesn't actually care about the employment numbers unless it effects him/her directly. Parties wield unemployment numbers as though they're Excalibur, but let's just keep in mind that every talking head on MSNBC, Fox and CNN has a job while pointing out how bad it was/is/will be unless X guy gets in
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