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Old 07-07-2012, 01:22 AM   #1
Arr34ston

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Oct 2005
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412
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Default Cracks in Assad regime? Sign of its fall?


saw this article in BBC:

A Syrian general close to President Assad has defected, delivering "a hard blow for the regime
", French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius has said.

Brig Gen Manaf Tlas fled Syria via Turkey, his family confirmed.

Mr Fabius said his departure showed Mr Assad's entourage was beginning to realise the regime was unsustainable.

Rumours of the possible defection last March proved false. If now confirmed, it would be the highest-level defection since Syria's unrest began.

Pro-government website Syriasteps said earlier Gen Tlas had made an "escape", adding the move was "insignificant".


If confirmed, this would be the highest level defection and the first from the inner circle around the Syrian president since the popular uprising against him started in March 2011.

This would also be damaging and embarrassing for the Damascus government, as it would be explained as an indication that cracks are appearing at the top of the ruling establishment and could encourage other Sunni defections.

The close relationship between Manaf Tlas and Bashar Assad goes back to the mid 90s when Bashar ended his medical career in the UK and was recalled to Syria to be groomed for succession following his older brother and heir apparent Basil's sudden death in a road accident in 1994.

The Republican Guard, of which Manaf Tlas was a top leader, is the main force responsible for the security and protection of the Assad government and is commanded directly by the inner circle in the presidential palace.

As such it is thought that he has a clear understanding and insight into how the Syrian government works at the top level and how the decision-making process worked since the start of the uprising.

Speaking after a Friends of Syria meeting in Paris, Mr Fabius described him as a "personality who belongs to the Republican Guard of Bashar al-Assad and was for a long time was one of his friends and close to him".

"Even those close to Assad have begun to understand that one cannot support a slaughterer like Bashar al-Assad."

Initially, he said the general was on his way to Paris but later added he had no indication of his final destination.

The general's father, former Defence Minister Mustafa Tlas, is reportedly living in France.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, also at the Paris meeting, said that if the "increasing stream of senior military defectors" was any indication, then "regime insiders and the military establishment were starting to vote with their feet".
'Good sign'

Brig Gen Tlas's intentions may only become clear if and when he appears in public to outline his plans, the BBC's James Reynolds on the Turkish-Syrian border reports.

Amer al-Sadeq, a member of a Damascus-based opposition group, described the latest development as "a good sign".

"Defecting soldiers, we see many of them, defecting officers, the more they come the better it is to make the regime weaker," Mr Sadeq told the BBC.

Brig Gen Tlas has been under a form of house arrest since May 2011 because he opposed the security solution that the regime has been implementing, sources say.
Mustafa Tlas. File photo Manaf Tlas's father, Mustafa, was Syria's defence minister

He also was the first government official to meet the opposition back last year to try to start a dialogue and find a political solution to the 16-month crisis.

Unlike most of Syria's Alawite leaders, the son of former Defence Minister Mustafa Tlas is a Sunni Muslim.

Syria's majority Sunni community has been at the forefront of the revolt against the president and has borne the brunt of the state's crackdown (which the UN estimates has left at least 10,000 people dead).

For decades, the Tlas family has given support to the Assad family, helping to ensure Bashar al-Assad's succession to the presidency 12 years ago.

If Manaf Tlas' permanent departure from Syria is confirmed, it would mark the first break of a member of President Assad's close circle, correspondents say.

Observers believe that the move may encourage other Sunni officers to consider their allegiances.
'Legitimate aspirations'

Gen Tlas's departure came as French President Francois Hollande hosted a Paris Friends of Syria conference with representatives of more than 100 countries to try to find a way to end the violence in Syria.

Mrs Clinton urged the representatives to persuade Russia and China to end their support for the Syrian regime.


"I ask you to reach out to Russia and China and to not only urge but demand that they get off the sidelines and begin to support the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people," she said.

"I don't think Russia and China believe they are paying any price at all, nothing at all, for standing up on behalf of the Assad regime."

She also called on the UN Security Council to pass a resolution imposing immediate sanctions on Syria, including under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, allowing for the possibility of military force.

The Paris meeting follows similar events in Tunis and Istanbul which demanded tougher action against the Assad regime.

Russia and China, which both hold vetoes in the Security Council, did not attend the Paris meeting.

UN diplomats are working on a document calling for restrictions on commercial activity if Mr Assad fails to abide by UN and Arab League envoy Kofi Annan's ceasefire plan and roadmap for a political transition.

The roadmap - announced last weekend by Annan after a meeting of world powers in Geneva - includes an interim government to enable the Syrian people to live ''independently and democratically''.

Western powers believe that Mr Assad should play no part in Syria's future, but the roadmap allows Mr Assad an effective veto over any interim candidate he opposes.

Some 15,800 people have died in more than a year of violence in Syria, activists say.
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