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The misile shield | Deccan Chronicle

The Agni-5 missile is meant to deliver nuclear warheads on to their targets and in accomplishing all the mission parameters successfully as envisaged by the scientists in the first test itself, the professionalism of India’s scientific community was beyond debate, placing India into the coveted club of the handful of nations that have the capability to launch ICBMs. Watched keenly by many in the world because the presence of such missiles significantly enhances the stature of India’s nuclear deterrence mechanism, the next step will see India conduct similar tests to declare the missile fully operational. By 2014-15 this missile - and India - will be ‘battle-ready’.


The Agni series of missiles should be viewed as a part of India’s “Minimum Credible Deterrence” policy. As a Nuclear Weapon State, India must have a suitable delivery mechanism for such weapons. India’s investments in the missile arena need to be looked at, against this backdrop. It is important to note that India is not the follower of the policy of mutually assured destruction (MAD), no votary of total and irrevocable destruction.


A nuclear triad
After the 1998 Pokhran nuclear tests it has been India’s endeavour to develop a nuclear triad. Simply possession of nuclear weapons has no meaning unless and until a mechanism to deliver these weapons on the targets of choice exists. A nuclear triad involves development of such delivery mechanisms. Such mechanisms include land based, air based and submarine based platforms and they constitute of ICBMs, strategic bombers and submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).


Particularly, since India has a policy of no first use (NFU) in regards to its nuclear weapons hence it becomes extremely important to acquire nuclear triad to enhance the credibility of India’s second strike in case India has been first attacked by the nuclear weapon. It is important to analyse this success of Agni-5 at three levels: technological gains, military advantages and strategic benefits.


DRDO has a well-established missile programme which was conceptualized during 1983. DRDO first mastered the art of developing short range missiles, the Prithvi series of missiles (150km to 300km) and now concentrating on Agni series. Before this test DRDO had proved its capability to launch missiles up to a distance of 3500km (Agni 4). Now, proving its worth by launching an ICBM it could be safely said that DRDO has mastered the art of ‘Rocket Science’. Apart from proving the worth of their missile expertise DRDO has also tested other technologies and techniques during this test successfully. Such technologies would have relevance for other defence related projects too.


DRDO has established a network of defence radars and ships for the purpose of tracking this missile. Such networks have utility in few other arenas of defence too, and could be modified from the point of view of developing architecture for Space Situational Awareness. Success of this test has proved that new technologies developed by DRDO like ring laser gyroscope and accelerometer, important for the purposes of navigation and guidance, have worked perfectly.


This test has proved the worth of composites used for the purpose of weight reduction of the rocket. Also, the re-entry of Agni-5 successfully into the earth’s atmosphere by withstanding thousands to degrees of temperature indicates that the ‘thermal shield’ has worked beautifully.


Strategic edge
From the point of view of the military, it’s important to note that India’s nuclear programme is a strategic programme and the role of air force and navy is more about remaining prepared for delivering the nuclear warheads and always remain in state of readiness. There has to be a constant interaction amongst the scientific community, the military and the policy makers to carry forward the country’s nuclear deterrence agenda.


In the strategic realm, such weapons are designed and developed for deterrence purposes. It would be incorrect to believe that such weapons offer solutions to all security related problems. A country like India needs to remain prepared by developing its conventional defences as well as strategic defences and the success of Agni-5 needs to be viewed in that context.


Success with technology is only one part of realizing strategic objectives. Today, India has two nuclear neighbours having proven missile capabilities to satisfy their security needs. Naturally, to bring in the strategic stability in the region it is important for India to arm itself with sufficient military hardware to address these challenges.


At the same time it is important for India, not to get unnecessarily drawn into any arms race scenario. China has been armed with ICBMs for many years which could reach almost the double distance than India (around 12,000 km range). However, what is important for India is not to match China in terms of range or numbers. Based on one’s own assessment of the security threats to the country India needs to develop its defences. Agni-5 should be viewed as a step in that direction.


From the strategic standpoint India also needs to further develop the Agni-V to feature Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs) capability. Such capability of carrying 2-10 separate nuclear warheads which could engage different targets, separated by some distance could help to ensure a credible second strike capability even with few missiles because only one rocket firing could help India to engage multiple targets almost simultaneously. Also, there exists a necessity to develop the SLBM programme further to complete the deterrence mechanism.


China-centric
It is expected that success of Agni-5 would create some discomfort for Pakistan and China. Particularly, this missile is being viewed by many as China-centric and media has reported certain adverse reactions by few Chinese agencies. Chinese reactions are on expected lines and it is obvious that China would be uncomfortable because India finished their monopoly in the region. Today, Agni-5 has made it possible for India to strike anywhere in Asia and even almost 80% of Europe is within the striking range. This adds value to India’s deterrence mechanism.


However, it is important to note that reinforcement of deterrence remains a dynamic process. India needs to constantly calibrate its deterrence mechanism based on its perceived threat perceptions and undertaking cost-benefit analysis for strategic investments.


Firepower
* The Prithvi-I, II and III short-range nuclear-capable surface-to-surface ballistic missiles have a range of 150, 250 and 350 kms respectively and have been inducted into the armed forces. Prithvi-I is the Army version, Prithvi-II is the IAF version and Prithvi-III (Dhanush) is the naval version launched from ships. Prithvi was developed keeping in mind the threat perception from Pakistan.


* Defence (BMD) missiles: These are being currently tested to intercept and destroy incoming ballistic missiles both within and outside the Earth’s atmosphere. The objective is to establish a BMD shield to protect India from enemy ballistic missiles.


Agni-V : Tested successfully during its maiden launch on April 19, this LRBM with a range of 5,000 km can reach all parts of China including Beijing. Will provide a credible nuclear-capable deterrent against China. Expected to be inducted in 2014 after a few more validation trials.


—Wing Commander (Retd) Ajay Lele is a Research Fellow, IDSA