[JANALA]

October

[rikdpola]

The key to this is to figure out when these fiscal cliff rescues are going to happen:

1) Extension of Bush tax cuts to middle class.
2) Extension of the 2% payroll tax pullback.
3) Postponement of "auto-cuts" that are supposed to kick in on January 1, 2013.
4) Extension of Bush tax cuts to high end earners.

I say the first three are a lock. Odds are 2-1 in favor of #4 as well.

So the big question is, when? Three possibilities:

1) Prior to election, so that Obama can take the credit. There's no way Congress let's him have #1 without #4. Obama would take this deal in a heartbeat, claiming the extension of tax relief for the rich is "only temporary in this difficult job environment." I'd peg this one for late September.
2) Lame duck session, November through January. I see #2 and #3 happening in December during the final hour, no matter who wins the election. It's their typical mode of operation: wait until the last minute.
3) After a new administration takes office. If they don't make a deal on #1 and #4 before the election, it will probably take place after the new administration. I say 2-1 odds in favor of pre-election, unless the Republicans really refuse to give Obama a deal, even though it's the deal they've been fighting for, i.e. tax cut extensions for all.

Another weak-spine maneuver will be that all of these moves will be voted as "temporary", probably through 2013.

When these events take place, it will be yet another round of assurance that our government does not have the wherewithall to deal with our fiscal situation. These are what will propel the next gold upleg. So put me down for a rocket period running from September through February.

[opelayday]

Seasonal Charts: Gold (GC)

The seasonal chart below is best used as an historic reference of past trends and turing points and not as a buy/sell recomendation.

Seasonal Observations:
•
•
•
•
Five Year Seasonal Study:



Ten Year Seasonal Study:



Five/Ten/Fifteen Year Seasonal Comparison:



Twenty Year Seasonal Study:



Twenty/Thirty Year Seasonal Comparison:
http://www.signalfinancialgroup.com/seasonal/seasonalGC.php

Influenced on Indian buying too a large degree but now with the Chinese buying they dont seem to have a season as its all the time plus other central banks buying it makes you wonder if the history charts are just that....history.

[inilbowly]

But will silver break 35?

Never!

[23InetrySypekek]

Agreed, Neuro. However, I think most on this forum are hoping and praying that silver will at least give $35t/o a good DENT, yes?

[opelayday]

Thats funny ,thats what the crooks at HSBC think also

Idiot article of the week...........

Yesterday's top story: Silver - a modest outlook at best

Silver prices are expected to break through $30/oz by year end, but are unlikely to remain above $32/oz for a sustained period says HSBC.



Author: Geoff Candy
Posted: Monday , 16 Jul 2012
GRONINGEN (MINEWEB) -
Investment demand is expected to continue its role as the swing factor for silver prices over the course of the rest of 2012.
According to HSBC's latest Silver Outlook report, silver prices are expected to move back above $30/oz by year end and remain relatively firm throughout 2013 but, this will be in spite of an expected surplus of over ground silver stock as a result of moderately increased mine production and scrap silver on the supply side and only moderate growth in industrial and physical demand.
The bank writes that this surplus will have to be absorbed by net implied investment if prices are not to fall further.
"Based purely on underlying physical fundamentals, which are only moderately bullish in our view, we believe prices are unlikely to stay over USD32/oz for a sustained period."
The bank is of the opinion that, while industrial demand could have an impact on prices, "Investor sentiment will be a key determinant of silver prices going forward, especially in the short term."
It writes, "Investor demand has absorbed the excess physical silver generated by rising mine output and slack jewelry and photographic demand. The silver ETFs specifically have absorbed sizable amounts of bullion in just a few years."
According to its estimates, HSBC says silver ETFs will hold the equivalent of almost two-thirds of annual silver mine output this year and more than twice annual jewelry and silverware demand this year.
What is driving investor demand?
According to HSBC, many of the factors affecting silver demand, are the same as those affecting gold demand.
"Silver is traditionally responsive to changes in monetary policy," it writes, adding, "The possibility that the US Federal Reserve and other central banks will further ease policy later this year is silver price-supportive. Furthermore problems associated with mounting debt levels, and the possibility that the authorities will engineer negative real interest rates as a way of reducing the debt burden, are also supportive of silver, as well as gold and other hard assets."
The bank says the metal could also benefit from a shift in focus away from the crisis within the euro zone and toward the problems facing the US, especially during an election year.
"If recent progress in addressing the euro zone is built on, and were the EUR to strengthen, this would also support bullion prices, as silver, as well as gold has a traditional inverse relationship with the USD."
With regards its role as a safe haven, HSBC maintains that, while silver's reputation as a safe haven is secondary to that of gold's, "it is fair to say that silver, is also traditionally regarded as a safe haven asset. This view reflects the fact that silver, as well as gold, almost alone among all the widely accepted safe-haven assets, is not subject to government fiscal or monetary policies."
But, it is also quick to point out that silver has not behaved as a traditional safe haven since the sovereign risk crisis began in the euro zone. This, the bank says, is partly because silver had to compete with other so-called safe havens. But, more importantly than that, it says, "A characteristic of the financial crisis has been that assets are increasingly correlated and behave either as risk assets or safe havens... silver is one of the very few assets - along with gold - that has traded independently from safe havens including the USD and US Treasuries, as well as German and British government bonds."
It adds, "This implies to us that while silver is influenced by shifts in risk on/risk off sentiment, it is also influenced by its own supply/demand fundamentals and retains some degree of independence from other assets. That silver is not acting as a risk on or risk off asset increases its portfolio diversification value. Hence it may be attractive for investors wishing to maintain a risk-neutral portfolio, as well as for investors who may wish to seek some diversity from gold."
HSBC says it has lowered its 2012 average silver price forecast to USD31/oz from USD34/oz, but maintains its forecasts of USD32/oz for 2013 and USD28/oz for 2014.
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/...ail&pid=102055

[Frodogzzz]

[opelayday]

Nice thrusters................

[LarryRda]

Who cares? It's all dollar indicative anyway. As long as gold is relatively low, other commodities are just as low, on average. I hope there's another run on treasuries so maybe we can back up the truck one more time. With the trouble goin on in Europe, that might just happen. Of course it'll be temporary because the long term health of the dollar is guaranteed to trend down. So take advantage because it won't last as long as last time.

[rikdpola]

"The silver ETFs specifically have absorbed sizable amounts of bullion in just a few years."

Mock these ETFs if you want, but the only way silver gets above $100 is with continued bullion demand from this retail option which is favored by most people, who don't understand the Ponce Principle.

[opelayday]

What do you say? To da moon?

Looks as though too the moon maybe correct...............

“Big, Big Moves” in Gold Price in August, Elite Insider Leaks to GATA

Posted by Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul on Jul 23, 2012 | 2 comments


As early as 10 days, the gold price will suddenly explode to the upside, according to one of Europe’s elite. Moreover, the European tycoon also explained why the silver price soared approximately 150 percent to nearly $50 within an eight-month period of Sept. 2010 and Apr. 2011.

Speaking with SGTreport host Brandon Smith, Chairman Bill Murphy of Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) said a longtime British “contact” told him that the month of August will usher in an event which will shock traders into buying the gold and silver bullion market aggressively again.

“The fellow I spoke with I’ve known for years, one of the wealthier men in all of Europe,” said Murphy. “He’s got a lot of connections . . . It will be tough for the gold and silver markets [during the month of July], but starting in August they would start to ‘go nuts’, and they would ‘stay nuts’ for a long time. . . Big, big moves are coming, starting in August.”


Murphy continued with the suggestion that the “big, big move”, starting in August, could possibly be triggered as a result of an announcement by the CFTC regarding its nearly four-year-long investigation into charges of silver market manipulation practices leveled against mega-banks JP Morgan and HSBC, the two banks that Murphy and his associates at GATA have accused for more than a decade as the kingpins of the gold and silver market cartel.

“I’ve a great deal of respect for Bart Chilton, one of their commissioners,” Murphy explained. “I’ve met him twice—communicate with him here and there—he doesn’t tell me anything he can’t—but he told me . . . I don’t know . . . two, three months ago, that we should be hearing something [announcement] in three or four months, either way. So, that would put it [the announcement] in August.”

Echoing predictions for a late-summer rally in the precious metals market, Goldmoney’s James Turk, told King World News, Jul. 16, the factors that soared precious metals prices in 2007, 2008 and 2010 are, again, in place for another stellar move to the upside this summer, as well.

According to Turk, in addition to the volatile credit markets in Europe, prices of food commodities are expected to jump sharply in August in response to global drought conditions, including severe drought conditions in the world’s breadbasket, the United States, not witnessed since the 1950s. Turk expects the commodities market to spark another eye-popping move in the precious metals.

“There is a new factor at work that is about to light a fire under the precious metals that few people recognize – food inflation,” said Turk. “It was one of the key drivers in the summer of 2010 which launched the huge rally that eventually took silver near $50 and gold to a new record over $1900.

“Food inflation was also a factor in the big run-up of the precious metals in 2007, and early 2008, when food riots broke out around the globe because of high prices,” added Turk, and conclude, “food inflation will again become one of the drivers sending gold, silver and the mining shares much higher from here.

“The summer doldrums are over. Gold and silver are ready to get exciting once again. We can expect a rally from here that will take our breath away.”
http://www.beaconequity.com/big-big-...ta-2012-07-23/

[vansVoish]

it will get there when it get there not till then and also why would anyone buy gold and silver with all this good paper money that there printing more of every day

[opelayday]

The masters will still be top and you all will still be the bottom running around in the ruins.

After everything resets...the top will employ all below to build and maintain the next source of all your misery and suffering...and the top will live off the yield from your power struggle trying to escape it.

uNLESS THEY ARE ALL IN JAIL OF COURSE

[Frodogzzz]

Echoing predictions for a late-summer rally in the precious metals market, Goldmoney’s James Turk, told King World News, Jul. 16, the factors that soared precious metals prices in 2007, 2008 and 2010 are, again, in place for another stellar move to the upside this summer, as well.

the reasons cited for the run-up in prices are still there when prices fall off.

but the forces pushing it up are usually offset by the Cartel's manipulation.

i have been thinking that the one thing the Cartel needs to Manipulate - the ability to deliver physical - would run into a brick wall at one point ... when they run out of physical.

especially with China buying up to 50% of world gold production, like they did in April 2012.


Let the Games Begin ?!


i wonder if the 'catalyzing incident' (cited by the insider) will relate to war launched during the summer Olympics. by Israel against Iran. they did something similar during the Beijing Olympics.

[23InetrySypekek]

You make a good point, gunny. As they say in the business, explanations always emerge post action/reaction. And THEEE "catalyzing incident" will emerge post rally this time, as well, if seasonal gold rally history is any indication.

The thing about Turk's claim that food inflation was a (significant