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Originally posted by BlackCat
Three years are a very short period, especially now. The fact that they can't sell empty units makes me even more nervous if it's only for 3-5 five years. Yeah, it's made me a bit nervous too. I'm guessing the big problem is that, since they were originally intended as rentals for grad students, there's not enough space for a family that would want to buy. The bigger units went fairly quickly, but students don't want to buy and tend to get out of town as fast as possible after graduating. |
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Originally posted by DanS
About your fiance's job, on a scale of 1-10, how stable is it? 1 is a job in mortgage brokerage while 10 is a government "iron rice bowl" job. Probably 7. Also would not be hard to find a replacement if something were to happen with it, the area doesn't retain professionals very well. |
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OK, here's the scoop as I see it. I'm no expert, so take it for what it's worth. I bought the condo that I was renting, so I do have some small experience -- from a guy from Maine, no less.
Anyway, the real estate market is crapping the bed. According to S&P, Boston home prices are dropping at about 0.8% per month. That means that your 5% down payment would last only about 6 months before you are "underwater" -- you owe more than the place is worth, less realtor fees -- if the market continues as it has been going. Add to that the fact that condo prices tend to change faster (both positively and negatively) than house prices. Being underwater is very bad, because for most people, it locks you into your house until you are no longer underwater (by making payments or by an improvement in the market) -- that is, unless you have the cash available to make up the difference between the mortgage amount and the value of the place. The market may change for the better in the next 6 months, but my sense is that it may not change for the better for a while. Boston's market peaked in September 2005. Only 2 other markets (Detroit and Cleveland) of the markets that S&P tracks peaked earlier than Boston's. Because of this, we might expect Boston's market to turn for the better before most others. The current owner could give you a below-market deal, in which case you might have more of a cushion than the 5% down. This seems unlikely, but those types of situations are to be recognized and exploited. More to come... |
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Next were a set of questions about income and spending going up/down. The rule of thumb is that you would need to be in your place for at least 3 years for you to look toward owning it. Income or spending fluctuations have the danger of putting you out of your condo before that time period is up, either by the sherriff's deputy kicking you out for foreclosure, or by your desire for a different place.
Next were a set of questions about external circumstances that might make you need to move out of town. If something like that happens, you need to be able to get out of your condo. Based on your answers, none of those situations seem likely. But try to think of odd stuff happening. Could you handle it if you're in a condo? |
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