[Mambattedge]

Someday...

[GinaIsWild]

So what? China will still be a shithole with most of its population in poverty.

[QXCharles]

So what? China will still be a shithole with most of its population in poverty.

Political and cultural power will eventually follow economic power.


Why do both of you seem to think growth will stop after surpassing the US? I think China will have a PPP GDP per capita about 70% that of the (future) US by 2040 (for reference today Japan has about 2/3 of the US GDP per capita and countries like Portugal have less than half yet are still counted as pretty good places to live).

[werkeeque]

Political and cultural power will eventually follow economic power.


Why do both of you seem to think growth will stop after surpassing the US? I think China will have a PPP GDP per capita about 70% that of the (future) US by 2040 (for reference today Japan has about 2/3 of the US GDP per capita and countries like Portugal have less than half yet are still counted as pretty good places to live).

When you're looking 20+ years down the line, using current trends starts turning into hogwash. Who knows what the world would be like in 2030 or 2040 or 2050.

Wow Hera. Always editing your posts.

[mpegdvdclip]

I think the US will see stagnation from late 2011 and eventually noticeable decline beyond 2013, however it wouldn't describe it as collapse. I also expect China to get back to +10% growth by 2011 and continue to hold this until then.

I more or less expect the US government to mismanage their economy under increasing pressure in the following years, the bloat of government and debt ensure this.


There are other scenarios I find plausible that have a similar result. Regardless I would put about 30% probability for 2018 being the year, I would also put 25% on 2022 and 20% on 2027 if I was a betting men.

[Lauramalina]

Bah. Why would the US decline and China accelerate? Why wouldn't China be the one that slows? South Korea and Japan slowed significantly.

They did that when they got close to the US in terms of per capita GDP, which China is nowhere near doing.

[Blacksheepaalredy]

The point is though, China is growing so well because of their manufacture of cheap sh*t...once wages increase a lot and their sh*t isn't so cheap, their economic growth will slow...from my perspective they don't hold anything else in their favour. At least India have a high level of scientific and technological expertise and output that China really need to look at matching.

[Ephedrine]

Wrong.
China is just under the $7000 mark. What do you think will happen?

I think that China's much more uneven development and larger size make it unlikely to show this effect beyond perhaps a percentage point.

The point is though, China is growing so well because of their manufacture of cheap sh*t...once wages increase a lot and their sh*t isn't so cheap, their economic growth will slow...from my perspective they don't hold anything else in their favour. At least India have a high level of scientific and technological expertise and output that China really need to look at matching.

Same response as above. There are vast regions of China that remain reservoirs of dirt poor cheap labour and will remain so for at least two decades.

Bah. Why would the US decline and China accelerate? Why wouldn't China be the one that slows? South Korea and Japan slowed significantly.

In the short term (10 to 20 years) I expect the Chinese government to be better at managing their economy than the US. In the medium term (20 to 50 years) I expect demographic changes in the US to start causing first stagnation and then slight decline in PPP adjusted per capita GDP.

[HwoRas1]

Okay so for comparison:

PPP GDP per capita (IMF):
US: 45,900
Japan: 32,500
S. Korea: 27,900
China: 6,700
Taiwan (FYI): 31,700 (nearly up to Japan!)

China is approaching that 7000 mark where 31 of 40 countries had their growth slowed by an average of 2.8 percentage points upon hitting it. If China's current GDP growth per capita is under 9% (accounting for population growth), then, assuming averages play out, you're talking maybe 6% growth looking forward.

[PersonalLoansBank]

Bah, look at this. China hasn't even caught up to the world average. Making stuff there is still relatively cheap. link

[Repwailia]

Okay so for comparison:

PPP GDP per capita (IMF):
US: 45,900
Japan: 32,500
S. Korea: 27,900
China: 6,700
Taiwan (FYI): 31,700 (nearly up to Japan!)

China is approaching that 7000 mark where 31 of 40 countries had their growth slowed by an average of 2.8 percentage points upon hitting it. If China's current GDP growth per capita is under 9% (accounting for population growth), then, assuming averages play out, you're talking maybe 6% growth looking forward.

BTW I predict South Korea will surpass Japan in per capita GDP by 2016 with 60% confidence.

[enentique]

You said:



As a response to me saying that S. Korea and Japan slowed. No. Japan's GDP growth slowed in 1969 and South Korea's slowed in 1988 when both economies hit the $7000 mark which China is knocking on.

You're wrong. Japan and S. Korea slowed before approaching the US. US real GDP per capita was around 21K in '69 and 31K in '88.

Look at this graph, ****tard: link

See how it doesn't slow down until they're close to the US? It's less true for S. Korea, but the same general trend applies.

[Rapiddude]

PhD in Economics doesn't impress me after recent events.

Weathermen.

[JorgiOLusinio]

Look at this graph, ****tard: link

See how it doesn't slow down until they're close to the US? It's less true for S. Korea, but the same general trend applies.

HEY GENIUS! Did you not see what I cited?

Japan's growth rate slowed when it approached 1/3rd of America's GDP per capita. S. Korea's slowed as well when it hit 1/4th of America's GDP per capita.

**** YOU YOU PIECE OF **** *******

[blenIgnigeSef]

I think the US will see stagnation from late 2011 and eventually noticeable decline beyond 2013, however it wouldn't describe it as collapse. I also expect China to get back to +10% growth by 2011 and continue to hold this until then.

I more or less expect the US government to mismanage their economy under increasing pressure in the following years, the bloat of government and debt ensure this.


There are other scenarios I find plausible that have a similar result. Regardless I would put about 30% probability for 2018 being the year, I would also put 25% on 2022 and 20% on 2027 if I was a betting men.

And what do you base this on?

[twinaircant]

IT DOESN'T ****ING MATTER. THE POINT IS THAT IF THEY ****ING FOLLOW THE TREND THAT OCCURRED FOR OTHER COUNTRIES THEY WILL BE SLOWING SIGNIFICANTLY LONG BEFORE HITTING THE US'S PER CAPITA GDP.

**** YOU *******

When other people extrapolate current trends you call it "hogwash". And Japan did in fact start slowing down when it was close to the US's per capita GDP.

[quorceopporce]

When other people extrapolate current trends you call it "hogwash". And Japan did in fact start slowing down when it was close to the US's per capita GDP.

yeah if you're talking 30-40 years from now because for all we know there could be a world war, some unforeseen technological boom, etc. anything. I'm just pointing out that countries typically are incapable of sustaining double-digit growth rates. China would be exceptional if they don't slow (and in fact, their GDP growth rate HAS been slowing).

[textarchive]

Slowing down over the past decade? Not according to the graph you just posted.

Go and google what China's GDP growth rate is now and see where it fits on that graph. It's not at double-digits now.

But I am seeing that estimates are all over the place online.

[MontyP@thon]

This one has different numbers that the Economist one. Data is all over the place.

It seems to match the other graph you just posted.

[CiccoineFed]

HEY GENIUS! Did you not see what I cited?

Japan's growth rate slowed when it approached 1/3rd of America's GDP per capita. S. Korea's slowed as well when it hit 1/4th of America's GDP per capita.

**** YOU YOU PIECE OF **** *******

You are so ****ing hilarious.

I can't wait to see you ten years down the road, still living in shithole philly yelling at everybody on Poly for no reason that anybody can divine.

You're a ****ing dullard, albie. A stupid, angry, lazy, piece of ****.