[ssiikmuz]

Most people, when you ask them about New Zealand and sport, will automatically say 'All Blacks' or 'Rugby' or even ask 'they play sport in New Zealand?' Well, this Kiwi loves his rugby but he knows that it pales in comparision to the greatest game in the universe. Here are his takes on Week 13 in the NFL, from 7000 miles away.



-You could hear the murmuring start almost a decade ago, centered around the running back situation in Denver. It was the 4th week of 1999 and Terrell Davis, after 4 stellar years in which he rushed for a mind boggling 6413 yards and 56 TD's, tore his ACL vs. the Jets attempting to make a tackle on an interception return. While this injury would prove to be the beginning of the end of Davis' short yet sweet career, the Broncos' running game barely missed a beat. Mike Shanahan turned over the reigns to an unheralded 4th round rookie named Olandis Gary who proceeded to go (in 12 games) for 1159 yards on 276 carries (4.6 YPC) and 7 TDs. At this point, the general consensus was that Gary was the exception to the rule: you couldn't just insert any old running back who could pick a hole and make a cut into the starting lineup without seeing a measurable drop off in performance.

Until Gary, after his 15 or so games of fame, landed himself on injured reserve in the 2000 season opener. In stepped Mike Anderson, a 27 year old 6th round rookie out of Utah who spent 4 years in the marines following high school. 1497 yards on 297 carries (5.0 YPC) and a whopping 15 TDs. Next up was another rookie: Clinton Portis in 2002 who over a combined 2 seasons rushed for 3099 yards on 563 carries (5.5 YPC) with 29 TD's, before being traded to Washington in one of the most lopsided trades in recent memory; Portis for Bailey AND a 2nd round pick. Since then Reuben Droughns, Tatum Bell and Mike Bell have all had career years in Denver's zone blocking rushing scheme which places a premium on undersized O-lineman with the quickness and mobility to pull out on runs and screens and also emphasises the infamous cut blocking technique designed to take defenders out at the knees.

Needless to say, since leaving Denver none of these running backs have enjoyed the kind of success they had playing with the Broncos. Gary spent an injury plagued season with the Lions in 2003 before flaming out. Anderson is currently with the Baltimore Ravens, his impact can be summed up with his 2007 stats: 4 rushes for 2 yards. Droughns went to Cleveland and while he was a workhouse in his time there, he wasn't anything special and now resides with the Giants whilst Tatom Bell and Mike Bell languish with the Lions and Broncos respectively.

The overall trend is clear: the system (in this case Denver's) makes the back, not the other way as some have claimed. Week 13 in the NFL provided a few more examples of this.

-Derrick Ward exploded for 154 yards on 24 carries (6.4 YPC) and tacked on a TD in carrying the Giants' struggling offense to a 21-16 win at Chicago. Ward has 602 yards on 125 carries (4.8 YPC), not bad for a guy who was pegged as the No. 3 RB behind Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward coming into the season

-Earnest Graham may just be sneaking his way to a 1000 yard season with Tampa Bay. After going for 106 yards on 22 carries with a TD together with 7 catches for 37 yards on the road in the Superdome. The Florida alumni, who like Ward is in his 4th year and had made a very minimal impact prior to this year, is on pace for 983 yards and 9 TDs.

-Heisman trophy winner Ron Dayne has never lived up to his billing as the 11th overall pick in 2000. After averaging 305 carries per season while running through holes the size of a truck at Wisconsin, high expectations were abound in New York for 'The Great Dayne' to play thunder to Tiki Barber's lightening. However, Dayne found that when playing on Sundays, holes closed a lot quicker. In 4 mediocre seasons in the big apple, he never rushed for more than 770 yards or 7 TDs. Now in Houston, Dayne is experiencing a revival of fortunes - in the last 4 games he's rushed for 375 yards on 76 carries (4.9 YPC) and 2 TDs and is on pace to establish a career high in rushing yards.

What is the lesson for GMs when it comes to building a running game? Start with the system and the philosophy of how you want to run the ball. Then make sure you have lineman who fit in with what you want to achieve. THEN find your RB. Unless it is a once in a blue moon talent like LaDanian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson or possibly Darren McFadden, do not waste a first rounder on the position where you are most likely to stick in a no name scrub, and still be successful.





- Barely 2 years ago, when one talked about elite QBs in the NFL, the names that came up were Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre and Carson Palmer. Palmer had just come off a breakout season in 2005 where he was selected to his first pro bowl enroute to leading his team to the wildcard round vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers. And if Kimo Von Oelhoffen hadn't dove into Palmer's left knee on the Bengals' second offensive play, tearing his ACL and MCL, we may have had a different superbowl champion that year. Here are Carson's numbers from 2005 onwards:

YEAR TEAM G CMP ATT PCT YDS AVG TD LNG INT RAT
2005 CIN 16 345 509 67.8 3836 7.5 32 70 12 101.1
2006 CIN 16 324 520 62.3 4035 7.8 28 74 13 93.9
2007 CIN 11 282 418 67.5 3076 7.4 21 56 15 90.8


Although there has only been a slight slip off numbers-wise from his career year, the main issue has been Cincinnati's (and Palmer's) inability to return to the playoffs, or even post a winning record. With much the same offensive cast as 2005 in which they went 11-5, the Bengals went 8-8 the following year and currently stand at 4-8 this year, all but eliminated from the playoffs. Sure, a lot of this futility must be placed on the defense which, despite having defensive guru Marvin Lewis as it's head coach, seems to annually struggle against the run. But some of the blame must go to Palmer and company for failing to play up to potential.

Which brings me to last night. Cincinnati's normally wafer thin D decided that it didn't want to be embarrased live on international TV, holding the Steelers to 101 yards on 35 carries (a paltry 2.9 YPC), not to mention forcing 4 turnovers that easily could have been 5 or 6 had a couple of referee's decisions gone their way. To counter this however, Palmer played appallingly bad considering his previous high standards. Bar the opening drive where he drove the Bengals 75 yards on 12 plays for the touchdown, a Grossman-like fumbled exchange from centre combined with his shakiness in the pocket ensued that this game would not be much of a contest. Not to mention his alarming propensity to throw above and behind his recievers he displayed all night. While John Madden attempted to explain it away as troubles with a wet ball, surely a QB can make adjustments in his throws like Ben Roethlisberger managed to. Palmer finished a dismal 17-44 for 183 yards for a season low QB rating of 51.6. Until Carson can prove that clunkers like this one and a 4 INT peformance vs. Arizona a couple of weeks ago are just abberations, he had slipped a little in my QB rankings. Still a top 10 QB, just not quite at the level of Roethlisberger, Tomy Romo or Drew Brees, and of course Brady/Manning/Favre.





-One other quick note from last night's game. Near the end, when it was obvious that the Steelers had secured victory, Madden made a comment to the effect of 'now I can see this team competing with Patriots in the playoffs'. I almost fell out of my chair. Had big John been watching the same game as I had? Pittsburgh, courtesy of Willie Parker, tried to literally hand this victory over to the Bengals. Had the Steeler's been playing a team with any semblance of a functional offense, they almost certainly would have lost this game given their 4 turnovers. In the last 2 weeks (and yes conditions have been a factor), Pittsburgh have proceeded to look like one of the worst 9-3 teams in NFL history. Despite playing at New England and vs. Jacksonville the next 2 weeks, they should end up with at least 11 wins on the season. Let's say they end up No. 3 seed behind NE and Indy, earning themselves a wildcard matchup at Heinz field versus the Browns or the Titans. This commentator's punt is that they are bundled out in said wildcard round in the maiden upset of the 2007 playoffs.






-A little over 3 weeks ago, Vikings fans and media were lamenting the fact that Tyler Thigpen, a raw 7th round project from Coastal Carolina, had been snapped up by Carl Peterson and the Kansas City Chiefs after Minnesota tried to sneak him through waivers and onto their practice squad. Having just suffered a 34-0 beatdown at the hands of division rival Green Bay, the Vikings were in desperate need of some QB help. Tarvaris Jackson had missed 4 of the last 7 games with various injuries and even in the 3 games he did play, hadn't exactly set the world on fire going 21-54 for 271 yards with 1 TD. In relief, Kelly Holcomb and Brooks Bollinger cemented their journeymen status with average at best performances, losing all 5 games they started. At the very least, thought supporters, Thigpen may have offered a breath of fresh air to the lifeless offense and his departure was seen as another example of the ineptitude of the Childress regime.

It's fairly safe to say that at this point, virtually no-one could have predicted the dramatic change in fortune for the Vikings in just a few short weeks. Since the massacre at Lambeau Field, Jackson has returned to lead the Minnesota on a 3 game winning streak with solid, if not spectacular numbers:

WEEK OPP RESULT CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
11 OAK W 29-22 17 22 171 77.3 7.77 16 0 1 3.0 79.9
12 @NYG W 41-17 10 12 129 83.3 10.75 60 1 0 4.0 139.2
13 DET W 42-10 18 24 204 75.0 8.50 35 2 1 1.0 110.4

While nobody is going to mistake him for Montana or Elway any day soon, this incremental week to week improvement has been exactly what the purple nation has been dying to see, not to mention Childress and co. And it was a fitting coincidence to see Tarvaris throw for a career high 204 yards and 2 TDs on the same day Thigpen made his NFL debut while, perhaps symbollically, throwing an interception. What Jackson has obviously begun to realize is that with the 2 headed monster known as Peterson-Taylor lining up behind you and a defense that seems to grow week by week, all that has to be done from under centre is to not lose the game.

At 6-6 and with a relatively easy schedule left ahead of them, the Vikings are the logical favorites to clinch the 6th playoff spot in the NFC. However this team must not look ahead as but one defeat could drop them right out the race, such is the bunched nature of this year's NFC. With that said, if Jackson continues to complement the Vikings seemingly unstoppable running game, not only will Minnesota make the playoffs but may even make some noise once they get there.






-One thing you could have guaranteed occurring last night, is the popping of champagne corks at the McCown residence in Jacksonville, Texas, situated in Cherokee county. It's not often that the McCown family gets to celebrate even one of it's sons performing well on a Sunday. Eldest brother Randy never even made it to the NFL after 4 years (including 2 as a starter) at Texas A & M. Josh, after been taking in the 3rd round in '02 by the Cardinals, has never been fully entrusted as a starting QB despite showing flashes of brilliance. And up until yesterday, Luke had never started an NFL game despite having been in and around the league for 4 seasons.

No doubt you've already seen them, but here the McCown's stats, in case you didn't believe it first time around:

CMP ATT YDS CMP% LNG TD INT RAT ATT YDS AVG TD

Luke 29 37 313 78.4 60 2 1 108.7 2 34 17.0 0

Josh 14 21 141 66.7 26 3 0 125.2 4 22 5.5 0


This writer has always had a little soft spot for Josh, ever since seeing him light up the Cardinals in '05, going 32-46 for 385 yards, 2 TD's no INT's in the first game ever played on foreign soil. In spite of getting pulled for JaMarcus Russell for a couple of series in the 2nd quarter before re-entering, McCown gutsed out the victory over Denver with his 3rd touchdown pass being especially sweet. With the Raiders up 17-7 facing from the Bronco's 13 yard line, McCown rolled out to his left to avoid pressure all the way to the sideline before stopping, facing the middle of the endzone and throwing across his body to a wide open Jerry Porter, just before taking a bone jarring hit from the Denver defender.

With Jeff Garcia suffering a back injury vs. the Redskins in Week 12, backup Bruce Gradkowski was forced into action and was rather ineffectual, going 9-19 for 106 yards. On Thursday last week, the Tampa Tribune reported that Luke McCown was getting the bulk of the work with the 1st team offense and was likely to start. What an inspired move from Jon Gruden this proved to be. Except for one Mike McKenzie pick six that looked to be the reciever's fault for not adjusting his route for a blitz, McCown was perfect and capped his memorable day with a 4 yard strike to Jerramy Stevens with 14 seconds left, all but ensuring the Bucs' victory.

Maybe Chucky Gruden does know what on earth he's doing with all these quarterbacks, what with Jeff Garcia proving one of the best value for money signings of last year's Free Agency, Gradkowski looking servicable as a rookie last year, Chris Simms performing better than many thought possible until he ruptured his spleen, and now McCown.




Questions? Comments? Email me at kieswill@gmail.com or reply below