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Old 12-12-2010, 01:32 PM   #1
RonPeeredob

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WHAT IF ?

In 24 hours NYC and surrounding countryside 30 miles in every direction will be vaporized.

What actions as individuals can we take ?

Is there a plan considering such a calamity in existence ?

What would YOU do ?
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:31 PM   #2
Goooooblin

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Interesting little mind game.

I guess my reaction/response would depend on where I was at the time and the cause.

Right now I am in Afghanistan. If there was a lot of thought that this was the work of the Taliban/AQ/Terrorists of some Muslim origin then I would be very worried that there may be a plan to hit back. That would put all westerners in Kabul and area in extreme danger from mob reprisals.

Even without that I would imagine that getting home might take a while due to restrictions and disruptions on air travel that would be inevitable.

If I was at home then the immediate impact would not be that much as I am very remote from NYC and the actions there do not impact me directly. I’m outside the NYC power grid area and even if the entore eastern power grid went down ( likely) I would still have power.

The indirect impacts as the economic downturn that would be sure to follow would be immense. NYC is the largest financial trade centre in the world and the ripple effects of it suddenly disappearing could take a century to work themselves out.

Communications would also be disrupted as would all air travel in the eastern North America for some time.

The actions that you could take as individuals providing you are outside the danger zone would be to have a survival stockpile and plan in place. Thankfully the items that you would need are just about the same as for severe weather and other natural disasters. I keep a several month supply of food in the house, in large part because we buy in bulk and always have a lot of food available, We also have a generator and some fuel available so could keep the house warm. We have fireplaces and also keep a good wood supply available and live near places where we can harvest all we need for some time.

I think that my family could get through the worst of the initial downturn and loss of services caused by the financial disaster. The worst long term effect would be due to my age. I’m just about ready to retire and it would be catastrophic to me to lose all my savings in the financial aftermath and have to live in an economy that was severely depressed as would the post NYC economy be.
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:31 PM   #3
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I'd speculate on land being for sale in NYC and the suburbs
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:31 PM   #4
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I'd sell all my stocks and short sell a bunch more.
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:31 PM   #5
Mereebirl

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I'd stock up on wood and water (already have enough food in the house to survive for a couple months). I'd also start carrying my gun. Other than that, I don't think I'd get to the hiding out stage until riots actually started. While an attack on that scale would be catastrophic, it's not really a society ender.
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:31 PM   #6
Lorionasodi

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WHAT IF ?

In 24 hours NYC and surrounding countryside 30 miles in every direction will be vaporized.

What actions as individuals can we take ?

Is there a plan considering such a calamity in existence ?

What would YOU do ?
Are you aware that the cold war ended? I don't know how some people manage to enjoy life spending their waking moments living in such morbid fear of war and the end of the world.

What if .... tomorrow was just another day, like every other day for the last 200 years. There's no nuclear bombs going off; there's no communists under the bed; there's no Muslim terrorists in downtown LA.
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:31 PM   #7
myspacecoo

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WHAT IF ?

In 24 hours NYC and surrounding countryside 30 miles in every direction will be vaporized.

What actions as individuals can we take ?

Is there a plan considering such a calamity in existence ?

What would YOU do ?
Figure NYC + 30 mi. radius = 47 mi. @ 1K megatons - a huge weapon - 3rd degree burns out to 198km; air blast to 71km; fireball @ ground contact to 11km.

If "vaporized" is what's you're aiming @, you might as well give up on nukes. You want a good-sized meteor @ interplanetary speeds.
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:31 PM   #8
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Are you aware that the cold war ended? I don't know how some people manage to enjoy life spending their waking moments living in such morbid fear of war and the end of the world.

What if .... tomorrow was just another day, like every other day for the last 200 years. There's no nuclear bombs going off; there's no communists under the bed; there's no Muslim terrorists in downtown LA.
I didn't ask you for your evaluation in respect to world affairs.

There are no really poor questions only poor unrelated answers.

At my age and life's experiences I have no fear of anything except outliving my money.

Oh..... Another exception the safety of "my family" !
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:31 PM   #9
Eromaveabeara

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From - Chicxulub crater - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"The Chicxulub crater (pronounced /ˈtʃiːkʃəluːb/ CHEEK-shə-LOOB; Maya: [tʃʼikʃuluɓ]) is an ancient impact crater buried underneath the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico.[2] Its center is located near the town of Chicxulub, after which the crater is named.[3] The crater is more than 180 km (110 mi) in diameter, making the feature one of the largest confirmed impact structures on Earth; the impacting bolide that formed the crater was at least 10 km (6 mi) in diameter." (My emphasis)

"Impact specifics

"The impactor's estimated size was about 10 km (6 mi) in diameter and is estimated to have released 4×1023 joules of energy, equivalent to 100,000,000 megatons of TNT on impact.[21][22] By contrast, the most powerful man-made explosive device ever detonated, the Tsar Bomba, had a yield of only 50 megatons,[23] making the Chicxulub impact 2 million times more powerful.[24] Even the largest known explosive volcanic eruption, which released approximately 1021 joules and created La Garita Caldera,[25] was substantially less powerful than the Chicxulub impact."

There you go. Individuals in the N. American landmass would likely die in any event. You might get some survivors in S. Africa, Patagonia in S. America, but it would be dicy.
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:31 PM   #10
12ZHeWZa

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I didn't ask you for your evaluation in respect to world affairs.

There are no really poor questions only poor unrelated answers.

At my age and life's experiences I have no fear of anything except outliving my money.

Oh..... Another exception the safety of "my family" !
No, but you appear ficated on the end of the world, and living ones life in constant fear like that isn't healthy. What would you do tomorrow if there was no nuke detonation? Probably fixate on a possible nuke detonation the day after in that case.
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:31 PM   #11
PRengine

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Interesting little mind game.

I guess my reaction/response would depend on where I was at the time and the cause.

Right now I am in Afghanistan. If there was a lot of thought that this was the work of the Taliban/AQ/Terrorists of some Muslim origin then I would be very worried that there may be a plan to hit back. That would put all westerners in Kabul and area in extreme danger from mob reprisals.

Even without that I would imagine that getting home might take a while due to restrictions and disruptions on air travel that would be inevitable.

If I was at home then the immediate impact would not be that much as I am very remote from NYC and the actions there do not impact me directly. I’m outside the NYC power grid area and even if the entore eastern power grid went down ( likely) I would still have power.

The indirect impacts as the economic downturn that would be sure to follow would be immense. NYC is the largest financial trade centre in the world and the ripple effects of it suddenly disappearing could take a century to work themselves out.

Communications would also be disrupted as would all air travel in the eastern North America for some time.

The actions that you could take as individuals providing you are outside the danger zone would be to have a survival stockpile and plan in place. Thankfully the items that you would need are just about the same as for severe weather and other natural disasters. I keep a several month supply of food in the house, in large part because we buy in bulk and always have a lot of food available, We also have a generator and some fuel available so could keep the house warm. We have fireplaces and also keep a good wood supply available and live near places where we can harvest all we need for some time.

I think that my family could get through the worst of the initial downturn and loss of services caused by the financial disaster. The worst long term effect would be due to my age. I’m just about ready to retire and it would be catastrophic to me to lose all my savings in the financial aftermath and have to live in an economy that was severely depressed as would the post NYC economy be.
If we were all as prepared as you the whole world would in many respects be a safer place in which to live.
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:31 PM   #12
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No, but you appear ficated on the end of the world, and living ones life in constant fear like that isn't healthy. What would you do tomorrow if there was no nuke detonation? Probably fixate on a possible nuke detonation the day after in that case.
Once one starts up the wrong road of suppositions it is difficult to convince them of their error.

Your rather frantic concern with my motivation in posing "What if" hints of the need for your denial of the possibility of such an event. Is that it ?
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:31 PM   #13
Brewpralgar

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When it happens it will be smaller. 125-150 kt (kilotons)

It will be an air burst… carried in a general aviation plane on a ‘legitimate flight plan’ like coming out of Africa. About 500-1,000 feet about the Hudson maybe as far north as 49th street… likely further south near the West Village. Maybe even in the upper harbor at or near Battery Park (and the once and future World Trade Center)

It might look something like this:

HYDESim: High-Yield Detonation Effects Simulator

Assuming it’s on a work day, then we should expect about 500k dead from the blast, the structural damage and the fires after. 500k dead in the first 15-30 minutes.

While most of the FDNY would escape destruction in the blast, most of it would not get to the scene due to the damage. Plans exist, on the federal state and local level but face it, nothing would work really well.

Everything south of Huston would be down… north of Huston it would be on fire. The fire would extend from Jersey City into Brooklyn. The docks would be down and severely damaged in Elisabeth, a major container port.

If the wind is from the northwest… something fairly common for New York, a big part of Brooklyn would be contaminated, causing hundreds of thousands more casualties.

30 days out likely we would see a total dead exceeding 1,000,000

The financial, news and entertainment industries would be crippled. The UN, likely, would leave the city. Millions of regular people would leave as well. The US would see something that we have not seen on 150 years: refugees.

Like following 9/11 the rest of the nation would remain physically untouched, but economically and emotionally ‘stopped dead;’

We will be cautioned not to ‘jump to conclusions’ Some people will explain that ‘America’s chickens have again come home to roost.’ Crowds in many a 3rd world country will be seen dancing and celebrating.

Our government will know within hours from where the fuel, enriched uranium or plutonium, came from. Not long after we will also know with some certainty who sent it.

If it’s the current administration in office, they could expect to get a sternly worded letter.
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:31 PM   #14
Alina20100

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When it happens it will be smaller. 125-150 kt (kilotons)

It will be an air burst… carried in a general aviation plane on a ‘legitimate flight plan’ like coming out of Africa. About 500-1,000 feet about the Hudson maybe as far north as 49th street… likely further south near the West Village. Maybe even in the upper harbor at or near Battery Park (and the once and future World Trade Center)

It might look something like this:

HYDESim: High-Yield Detonation Effects Simulator

Assuming it’s on a work day, then we should expect about 500k dead from the blast, the structural damage and the fires after. 500k dead in the first 15-30 minutes.

While most of the FDNY would escape destruction in the blast, most of it would not get to the scene due to the damage. Plans exist, on the federal state and local level but face it, nothing would work really well.

Everything south of Huston would be down… north of Huston it would be on fire. The fire would extend from Jersey City into Brooklyn. The docks would be down and severely damaged in Elisabeth, a major container port.

If the wind is from the northwest… something fairly common for New York, a big part of Brooklyn would be contaminated, causing hundreds of thousands more casualties.

30 days out likely we would see a total dead exceeding 1,000,000

The financial, news and entertainment industries would be crippled. The UN, likely, would leave the city. Millions of regular people would leave as well. The US would see something that we have not seen on 150 years: refugees.

Like following 9/11 the rest of the nation would remain physically untouched, but economically and emotionally ‘stopped dead;’

We will be cautioned not to ‘jump to conclusions’ Some people will explain that ‘America’s chickens have again come home to roost.’ Crowds in many a 3rd world country will be seen dancing and celebrating.

Our government will know within hours from where the fuel, enriched uranium or plutonium, came from. Not long after we will also know with some certainty who sent it.

If it’s the current administration in office, they could expect to get a sternly worded letter.
Now there's an active mind at work painting a vivid picture with words that give one the feeling we are at or near the scene hearing a description of the damage by one so numbed by the carnage viewed that the report is without passion accurately articulated as by a reporter such as Dan Rather.

We adjust ourselves sometimes rapidly to disastrous situations regardless of their enormity, Our minds often able to visualize and develop great fear of what's to come but then after as a survivor calming that fear by instinctively coping with a reality that might be less than that feared.
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:31 PM   #15
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By the time the goose hits the turbofan, it's usually too late for substantive and productive action.

Needless to say, the economic damage would far exceed the physical, and the greatest threat would be from those seeking to "not let a good crisis go to waste".
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:31 PM   #16
AlexanderDrew

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WHAT IF ?

In 24 hours NYC and surrounding countryside 30 miles in every direction will be vaporized.

What actions as individuals can we take ?

Is there a plan considering such a calamity in existence ?

What would YOU do ?
I guess it depends on what you mean by "What would YOU do?"

If I'm me I wouldn't be doing anything much of what I wanted to do. I'd probably be pulled out of Afghanistan and deployed somewhere else.

If the question is asked in the context of what I would do if I was calling the shots? The US response would dwarf that of any action we've ever taken in the history of our nation. The response would be so that no one would ever think it was a good idea to pull something like this, again, ever.
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:31 PM   #17
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Vaporising out to 30 miles would, as has been pointed out, require an asteroid. Though not as big as Chixulub its big enough that most life on Earth, probably including human, would be ended, either from the worldwide flaming skies and tsunamis immediately afterwards or the decades of superwinter and millenium(s) long ice age that would probably follow.

Really a GOOD reason to complete the survey for Near Earth Objects that had been proceeding apace, but is probably now stalled in the Southern Hemisphere because we need a 14th aircraft carrier to properly combat guys who fight mainly by setting homemade bombs along roads in the worlds's driest and most landlocked deserts.
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Old 08-29-2012, 10:31 PM   #18
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I guess it depends on what you mean by "What would YOU do?"

If I'm me I wouldn't be doing anything much of what I wanted to do. I'd probably be pulled out of Afghanistan and deployed somewhere else.

If the question is asked in the context of what I would do if I was calling the shots? The US response would dwarf that of any action we've ever taken in the history of our nation. The response would be so that no one would ever think it was a good idea to pull something like this, again, ever.
An action of universal understanding ! So would I.
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