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09-14-2009, 07:53 PM | #21 |
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09-14-2009, 08:49 PM | #22 |
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One thing to keep in mind here it is EXTREMELY difficult to get real information out of China.
I used to read a Chinese Econ. Professor's blog but they shut him down recently too. They literally shut him down when he started being critical of the stimulus producing goods when they don't have any customers. OUr information is being heavily filtered and/or it is largely anecdotal. China is like a humongous ship,they are run by think tank and as such are very, very slow to change course. Their stimulus has been trillions to keep machines running producing goods nobody wants or needs. Eventually their population is going to want to be westernized just like German in the 70's, Japan in the 80's an output of our looting and pillaging is enriching the locals with hard currency who then want to go spend it. So the idea that they are some nimble, efficient compeitor smoothly gliding amongst world commerce all the while they currency, people et al is totalitarian liked controlled is an inaccurate portrayal. They told me in the 70's to learn German, in the 80's to learn Japanese, same people saying learn Chinese now. MEanwhile what happened before? WHen the Japanese, Germans et al spent their dollars, the US capitalists raped them. Japanese bought Pebble BEach and Rockafeller Center at the absolute peak of the market. Will be no different here, CHinese will spend these dollars and will get crushed in the commerce. They can't win here, they need us to buy their crap and they going to need us to spend their dollars. Can say the US can't win either, but like I posted we already spent their money so that is a tough one to support. |
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12-10-2009, 02:59 AM | #24 |
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Not sure you want to engage in trade wars with your banker....let the fireworks begin....although it could be a bow shot....interesting development nonetheless given a fragile global economy...could have wider implications if China decides to respond in kind although they have already acted in the past year by buying less and less of our debt.
Jonathan Weisman, WSJ: The Obama administration will put steep import duties on Chinese passenger and light truck tires, responding to what the U.S. International Trade Commission determined to be a surge of Chinese tire exports that has rocked the domestic U.S. tire industry and displaced thousands of jobs, U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk announced Friday night. China's government responded quickly to the announcement, saying in a statement that it "strongly opposes" what it called "a serious act of trade protectionism." China "reserves the right to make further response," the Ministry of Commerce statement said. The U.S. announcement of 35% import tariffs, which would decline to 30% in the second year and 25% in the third, comes at a sensitive time. The heads of state of the 20 largest economies arrive in Pittsburgh in less than two weeks for a summit of the Group of 20, amid rising trade tensions and looming economic disputes. The United States needs China to help float a U.S. deficit expected to reach $1.56 trillion this year. President Barack Obama is also likely to seek new sanctions against Iran to combat its nuclear program, and China's vote on the United Nations Security Council is pivotal U.S. to Impose Tariff on Chinese Tires - WSJ.com |
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12-10-2009, 03:04 AM | #25 |
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12-10-2009, 06:21 AM | #26 |
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If we start a trade war we may yet see the Great Depression. that's exactly what made the depression so great, financial crisis, followed by a trade war, then failed government stimulus programs until WWII which justified massive debt spending...except back then our credit was in much better shape. |
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12-10-2009, 07:37 AM | #28 |
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