[omaculer]

I considered which arena to post this in, this one seems as good as any. Although it's about past civilizations, does it portend our demise?

BBC News - Roman rise and fall 'recorded in trees'

An extensive study of tree growth rings says there could be a link between the rise and fall of past civilisations and sudden shifts in Europe's climate.

[FilmCriticAwezume]

Are the US threatened by barbarians at the gates? You guys have B52s. That should show the Goths who's the boss...

[baritkello]

If the rise and falls of empires are tied to the growing season those areas with extensive agricultural development will still come ahead of those that don't have such. Rome outsourced so much of it's economy that in the end of things there was no center of note to hold.

Will the U.S. have food to export if the climate worsens? If it does the U.S. comes out favorably.

[Zhgrlpil]

heh the US is in decline due to our spending, and debt.

[venediene]

I don't think we will stop being a world power anytime soon. However, I do see our ability to project our power diminishing.

[GECEDEANY]

The mini Ice Age that clobbered Europe between ~1600 and ~1800 and froze the Thames solid for months at a time on several occasions didn't seem to stop the British Empire from achieving global dominance.

Actually, Britain came right out of that and into what's been callled "Britain's imperial century" from 1815 to 1914.

Beyond that, I think that comparing Ammerica to the Roman Empire in any capacity is really little more than an exercise in pointing out (ultimatelly irrelevant) coincidences.

[Tactattcahhaw]

We have more or less plateaued since July 20, 1969.

Our failure to press foreword has caused our strength to atrophy and others to catch up.

[electmobile]

I don't think we will stop being a world power anytime soon. However, I do see our ability to project our power diminishing.

That started on 1/21/09

[LypeReexy]

That started on 1/21/09

Back to reality - our role as the only superpower may be ending, but if we can learn to make better decisions in regards to economics, and realize that we cannot and should not act as the world's policeman, we can certainly share the stage. The question will have to be whether we choose to make it a role of animosity with the other superpower/s, or cooperation.

[kertionderf]

Are the US threatened by barbarians at the gates? You guys have B52s. That should show the Goths who's the boss...

B-52's help, but you can't fight mother nature. If climate change (using a generic term, not a reference to AGW) starves today's Goths, the Chinese, they'll be more apt to try to invade or otherwise gain control of our crops. If CC means we have less food and/or resources, and/or we require more energy just to stay warm, that shifts the balance of power away from us as we shift resources from our B-52s towards food/wood/oil/whatever production and acquisition.

A really simple example would be to compare America to Atlantis, which is now thought to have been the Minoan civilization once located near Crete. They disappeared almost overnight because of a huge volcanic eruption. Whenever Yellowstone finally blows, we're done as a super-power, and perhaps even headed for 3rd-world status.

But as earlier noted, in the modern world, our decline and demise are less likely to be due to drought and crop failure than from debt and currency failure.

[caseferter]

Global corporations and instantly, infinitely fungible capital mean the power of the US must continue to decline. That ongoing decline is evident in our thirty year record of flat or negative wage growth. Our days as the world's leading power are already all but over. But I expect the US will remain among the power elite in the world for at least another couple generations.

[GogaMegaPis]

heh the US is in decline due to our spending, and debt.

Agreed that we are in perhaps a temporary decline, due to debt and spending more than we make. But the decline that I have experienced in my own life line goes much deeper than debt and spending. Debt is only one aspect or symptom of the decline, but not necessarily the perp here. Debt tends to be a temporary thing, and it rises and falls over time. We are just in a time of rising, with no economic boom right around the corner to bring debt back into line. It might be difficult to grow ourselves out of this blossoming debt, given the shape of the economic world today, with the rise of China, that we added growth hormones and fertilizer to.....that will bite us in the proverbial ass with time. And perhaps this new era that we helped to create will be the beginnings of the "Crazy Years" as foretold by Heinlein. This new era where one Nation "self guts" itself, in the chase of personal profits is a prerequisite for the crazy years. We are doing things economically today, that our fathers would have seen as crazy as batshit. So "crazy years" is a very apt term, as it arises from being rather insane, driven by the intoxication of short term profits.

It is very clear that the US is in decline and has a new Nation more than poised and ready to come into its power. No doubt in my mind that China has made long term plans to pull this off. And will, unless we see major changes in the economic policy of this nation we call home. China needed a lot of help to get their own ball rolling, and the US was more than willing to cut our own throats, as there was short term money to be made by doing so. The drive for more profits was an Achilles Heel that the astute Chinese could and did use, against us. Of course the Chinese had to wait until we got off of the FDR manner of running an economy, and moved towards the Repub model that was more friendly to China's plans. The Repub model allowed for offshoring, to increase the profits of the few, and this is what China needed, in order to begin their own take over of production, that slave labor is a key ingredient in order to pull off.

Once that the US no longer protected its industry, and its own working people, all bets were off. We are being played like a banjo in a redneck bar. The lust for more profits is our weakness, that had to be turned against us, in order to knock us off of the top of the mound.

I am convinced that what was needed for China to rise, was the change in our own economic policy that was instituted post WW2, and then changed by the Repubs starting with Reagen, and continuing onward, although downward, since that time. Where post WW2, having just suffered the Great Depression, gov't acted upon behalf of the People, and this played an important role in our economic model. We were concerned with the masses of Americans, more so than being concerned with the few elites. And we operated with that mindset for many decades,which created the America of my youth, and the most powerful Nation on this earth. You cannot separate our past economic models from our ascent, although the Repubs apparently don't agree, given that they changed what worked so well, for so long.

I think that if one can look at the decline of the US objectively, it is clear that we got to where we are today, due to Repubs coming back into power, and changing up the goals of our economy. We moved from enriching ALL to concentrating on only enriching a few, having embraced trickle down economics. I have no doubt in my own mind that our decline lies with the fact that both Dems and Repubs deserted the economic model that created the America of the 50's and 60's. And I have no doubt that we cannot save ourselves unless we go back to what we know works, and while it would not be perfect, it is a damn site better than what the Repubs have given us. Their ways don't work! The evidence is all around us and is clear. If one puts the objective lens in their glasses.

So, IMO, the decline of America is due to the Repubs going back to an earlier failed model. Repubs don't read history, they rewrite it, later on. But the sad news is the current mess is what THAT model yields. When you concentrate the wealth in the hands of the few, so that some might trickle down, it not only goes against common sense, it should be a crime of sorts. This model is parasitic, and it inevitably kills the host. This ain't rocket science, its the dirt of the earth. The thing is, most of us are divorced from the dirt of the earth these days. We replace reality with another reality of our own, that matches our personal ideology better. But, we are not grounded when we do this. And the effects will be something no one will like, later on, when the light of day illuminates our stupidity. By then, it will perhaps be too late to effect change.

[allvideO]

I don't think we're in decline as much as we are in a state of stagnated growth.

Other powers around the world are having growth spurts.... and so these contenders are destined to have more leverage on the world stage.

It will take a lot of time, however, for another country to surpass the U.S. in total world power because we still have the strongest military in the world and we have led by example for decades upon decades. Even if another county equals us in economic or military strength, they will need to establish a track record of world leadership before the world listens to them more than they listen to us.

[newwebstar]

Of course it's in decline. When you stop exercising muscles, they stop working as well.

And power is the same.

[GECEDEANY]

So, IMO, the decline of America is due to the Repubs going back to an earlier failed model.

Unless Republicans were responsible for China's admittance to the WTO, the U.S.-China Relations Act of 2000, and NAFTA, I'd revisit the rationale behind your post and reassign blame where the facts call for it.

I agree that the Republicans played their role, but the Democrats were right there neck-and-neck with them the whoooooooooooooooole time.

[acissombiapse]

I considered which arena to post this in, this one seems as good as any. Although it's about past civilizations, does it portend our demise?

BBC News - Roman rise and fall 'recorded in trees'

An extensive study of tree growth rings says there could be a link between the rise and fall of past civilisations and sudden shifts in Europe's climate.

Yes and No.

No, in the sense that our demise will not be the same, in the same manner, or for the same reasons.

Yes, in the sense of what others above have started to suggest. For one, our role as an economic super power is one now mocked around the world mostly due to the 'we did it to ourselves' disaster of 2007. Time and time again we build our economy on debt then destroy ourselves as a result still not learning the lesson. On the government front (which is tied of course) we just stopped acting as a world leader or anything along the lines of suggesting that we are doing things right. Follow our path as we are on the right one is not as easy to sell. Other countries lost respect (assuming it was there at all in some cases) long ago. Another issue resulting from this but was also in the making all on it's own is our terrible spending habits, currency controls, and debt concerns. A good bit supports this, not much against. Look at our increased spending (before and after the disaster of 2007,) look at our debt well on the rise, look at our dollar well on the decline, production not near what it could be if we focused on that as a country. Our own value as a country is not on the rise, has not for some time now, and our lack of production as a country all contributes to others economically and otherwise as lesser than we once were. We are still only a consumer debt driven market, very little else. Others see this, and see our growing weakness as a country. Our military might is probably the one standing thing we have left as a position of strength, but then again our leaders in recent times has not treated it with the respect it deserves. Our resources in that department are strained, under constant political whim and debate, etc. to say the least.

Will we stop being a super power? In some ways I think we already have but overall we probably will just hang on in other ways. However to achieve this we will need cooperation from other countries as we just cannot do it on our own. Again, weakness and with the path we are on it may not change any time soon. Since we are already in a position were we need financial help (as an example) to continue, year over year, we are already on that path needing cooperation for economic survival. That is anything but a position of strength.

[JJoon077]

heh the US is in decline due to our spending, and debt.

Its in decline becasue our politicians are nothing more than corporate puppets that do what they are told. Its corruption thatis killing this country. Not spending. Unfortuantely for the average American, there is far too much profit to be had by crashing the economy over and over.

I'd start looking there to fix things.

[Tactattcahhaw]

I think that if one can look at the decline of the US objectively, it is clear that we got to where we are today, due to Repubs coming back into power, and changing up the goals of our economy. We moved from enriching ALL to concentrating on only enriching a few, having embraced trickle down economics. I have no doubt in my own mind that our decline lies with the fact that both Dems and Repubs deserted the economic model that created the America of the 50's and 60's. And I have no doubt that we cannot save ourselves unless we go back to what we know works, and while it would not be perfect, it is a damn site better than what the Repubs have given us. Their ways don't work! The evidence is all around us and is clear. If one puts the objective lens in their glasses.

You've got to ask yourself what was so different from the 50's-60's, than from immediately before and since.

Basically you've got the greatest generation at their peak. They grew up in the depression, and survived the war. Now that they were home they where building homes, having families, going to the Moon, building cars and highways, waging the Cold War, ect. The costs of the New Deal/Great Society didn't seem to be a big deal because, hey, look at all these kids. They knew what was real, they saw what really mattered during the war.

Of course in the 30's everyone was scared and cornered and not terribly rational. They wanted hope, and didn't much care about the long term costs. The 70's featured a bunch of spoiled and drug addled baby boomers who knew little of the struggles of their parents. If you go as far back as the 20's you find the first true urban generation who lack the natural protections of the self sufficient rural life. No doubt that is why the depression was so deep. Fast forward to the 80's and you've got baby boomers at their peak, living off the infrastructure their parents built, and still contributing far more to the entitlement system than it needed. Going foreword, one technological advance after another kept us busy. But most of it was so far removed from what was real and what kept things humming. Fat pensions, fat entitlements, ect.

The American people are waking back us to what is real. The regime is trying to cling to what isn't

[GECEDEANY]

Its in decline becasue our politicians are nothing more than corporate puppets that do what they are told. Its corruption thatis killing this country. Not spending. Unfortuantely for the average American, there is far too much profit to be had by crashing the economy over and over.

I'd start looking there to fix things.

Politicians and corporations aren't forcing people to live beyond their means, assume debt they can't afford, forego education, marry themselves to purile sectarian politics, and all the other shit the American people do to ensure that, as bad as the government may be making things, they'll make them a whole lot worse on their own.

China isn't making 78" LCD TVs, Polo clothing, and every other manner of shitty gadget because of supply-side economics.

Business and politics just opened the door.

The American people in their greed and stupidity are the ones who immediately began throwing everything they owned out that door in order to secure better pricing on things they couldn't otherwise afford and still have no real need for.

[Serereids]

uuh...this whole thing is based on a book called Catastrophe by David Keys, and he traces it to a volcano doing the volcanic winter bit in 535. Best candidate is Karakatoa but there are others.

The basic cause has some interesting data. (the tree rings come in here) The conclusions he draws are specualtive at best.

One problem is that the Western Roman Empire officially ended in 478, when the last Emperor was overthrown by Odoacer who sent the Imperial robes of Romulus Augustulus back to Constantinople and took the title King. Now Keys says Justinian was reviving the Empire at the time but the volcanic winter stopped it. Again, he makes an intesting case but many historians, for complicated reasons, look on the Justinian reconquests as the final nail in Rome's coffin, not a revival as much as a wake, an event which not only stopped a present revival but made any other impossible.

There are no end of theories as to why Rome ended and the mystery isn't why it did but why didn't it reinvent itself and go on? as it had several times before.

Not only that but afterwards why did world, (and this is the whole world, North and South Am too) populations decline at this time and not really recover for almost a millenium?

No one knows, theories abound. They range from Toynbee's Spenglerian view of civilisations as organic things to (literally) Diseases From Space by N.C. Wickramasinghe and Fred Hoyle (yes, THE Fred Hoyle, he may have won the Nobel Prize but he also wrote very good SF and had some theories which were a little out of his field, but make very interesting reading)