[Maydayvar]

Mostly doctors and nurses, no doubt. LOL

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/...rs_547288.html

CBO Director Says Obamacare Would Reduce Employment by 800,000 Workers

2:37 PM, Feb 10, 2011 • By JEFFREY H.

Testifying today before the House Budget Committee, Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Doug Elmendorf confirmed that Obamacare is expected to reduce the number of jobs in the labor market by an estimated 800,000. Here are excerpts from the exchange:

Chairman [Paul] Ryan: “[I]t’s been argued...that the new health care law will create jobs and increase labor force participation. But if I recall from your analysis, it was quite the opposite. Is that not the case?”

Director [Douglas] Elmendorf : “Yes.”...

[…]

Rep. [John] Campbell: Thank you, Mr. Chairman, we'll -- and Dr. Elmendorf -- and we'll continue this conversation right now. First on health care, before I get to -- before I get to broader issues, you just mentioned that you believe -- or that in your estimate, that the health care law would reduce the labor used in the economy by about 1/2 of 1 percent, given that, I believe you say, there's 160 million full-time people working in '20-'21. That means that, in your estimation, the health care law would reduce employment by 800,000 in '20-'21. Is that correct?

Director Elmendorf: Yes. The way I would put it is that we do estimate, as you said, that...employment will be about 160 million by the end of the decade. Half a percent of that is 800,000.

[heltduell]

I hope those unemployed are all health insurance executives, administrators and sales people. That would be great!

[unlomarma]

This is great news. The CBO is projecting that by 2020-2021, thanks to protections of the Affordable Care Act, up to 800,000 people shackled to jobs just to get company-paid health care will be able to afford that coverage on their own and will be able to free up those positions for new people entering the workforce.

The New Republic: http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-cha...ls-800000-jobs

Yesterday, CBO Director Doug Elmendorf testified before the House Budget Committee, and confirmed his agency's finding that the Affordable Care Act would, very slightly, reduce employment levels. In keeping with their policy of loudly touting every CBO analysis that backs up their talking points while dismissing out of hand every CBO analysis that refutes them, Republicans excitedly circulated the video. Here are typical reactions from the Weekly Standard's Jeffrey Anderson ("CBO Director Says Obamacare Would Reduce Employment By 800,000 Workers") and National Review'a Yuval Levin ("Job Killing.")

This description is, at best, highly misleading. CBO did not find that the ACA would kill jobs. It found that "the legislation, on net, will reduce the amount of labor used in the economy by a small amount—roughly half a percent—primarily by reducing the amount of labor that workers choose to supply." It won't be the case that there will be fewer jobs available. It's simply that fewer people will choose to work. Why? CBO explains:The expansion of Medicaid and the availability of subsidies through the exchanges will effectively increase beneficiaries’ financial resources. Those additional resources will encourage some people to work fewer hours or to withdraw from the labor market. In addition, the phaseout of the subsidies as income rises will effectively increase marginal tax rates, which will also discourage work. But because most workers who are offered insurance through their jobs will be ineligible for the exchanges’ subsidies and because most people will have income that is too high to be eligible for Medicaid, those effects on financial resources and marginal tax rates will apply only to a small segment of the population.Other provisions in the legislation are also likely to diminish people’s incentives to work. Changes to the insurance market, including provisions that prohibit insurers from denying coverage to people because of preexisting conditions and that restrict how much prices can vary with an individual’s age or health status, will increase the appeal of health insurance plans offered outside the workplace for older workers. As a result, some older workers will choose to retire earlier than they otherwise would.In other words, people who are only working because they desperately need employer-sponsored health insurance will no longer do so. They're not going on the public dole -- they're just people who have the means not to work full-time and will be free to make employment decisions that aren't premised upon an individual health insurance market that shuts them out. Some workers will choose to retire early because they now have the ability to buy their own health insurance. This is what Republicans call "destroying jobs."