DiscussWorldIssues - Socio-Economic Religion and Political Uncensored Debate - View Single Post - Predicted successes and failures of Obama et al

**radikal** · 08-17-2009, 02:57 PM

My two cents:

1) NK: The US and the rest of the world have already failed on NK, more especifically America failed in 2006 when NK carried its first nuclear test. No idea on how will everyone deal with this (this is a world problem right now).

2) Pakistan: I'm more optimistic on this, Obama will put pressure on the Taliban and will try to stabilize it. Though in the end it depends on the Pakistani gov't more than the US, and success is not guaranteed, but I don't think Obama will let any extremists to take over Pakistan's nukes (or take over Islamabad).

3) I-A conflict: I have no idea on how will Obama do on this. IMHO it depends a lot on Israel and the Arabs more than Obama... And let's face it, things in Israel or the WB & Gaza could change a lot in 2 years.

4) Iraq. Agree with you bararallu, but this is inherited from Bush. Also, at least for the Iraqis themselves, it might be good in the long term if Iraq is divided in 3 states, but I expect a bloodbath once America leaves. This and Iranian nukes have the potential of desestabilizing the whole region.

5) Iran: If their nuclear pogram has military purposes (and IMO it has military purposes, if it didn't they'd let the IAEA do its job and confirm that the program has civilian purposes only, but no one knows for sure yet), they will get their nukes, let's face it. Now I don't know how will the Arabs react to this (will they try to get their own nukes too?) and I don't know for sure if their foreign policy will turn to be more supportive of Hezbollah, Hamas and Shiite insurgency across the Middle East or even willing to take a direct military action... It will depend a lot on their internal support. I also don't know how will the rest of the world react on this, the NPT could potentially collapse if Iran gets nukes, especially if the Iranians don't leave it.

6) Afghanistan: I don't expect much change from the current situation.

7) Lebanon: No idea either, things could change rapidly just like in the I-A conflict. Though I doubt Syria (or Israel) will invade Lebanon, unless they (the militias up there or their Army) attack any of these countries (probably Israel), which is unlikely at least for this (and probably next) year.

08-17-2009, 02:57 PM	#6
radikal Join Date Oct 2005 Age 54 Posts 4,523 Senior Member	My two cents: 1) NK: The US and the rest of the world have already failed on NK, more especifically America failed in 2006 when NK carried its first nuclear test. No idea on how will everyone deal with this (this is a world problem right now). 2) Pakistan: I'm more optimistic on this, Obama will put pressure on the Taliban and will try to stabilize it. Though in the end it depends on the Pakistani gov't more than the US, and success is not guaranteed, but I don't think Obama will let any extremists to take over Pakistan's nukes (or take over Islamabad). 3) I-A conflict: I have no idea on how will Obama do on this. IMHO it depends a lot on Israel and the Arabs more than Obama... And let's face it, things in Israel or the WB & Gaza could change a lot in 2 years. 4) Iraq. Agree with you bararallu, but this is inherited from Bush. Also, at least for the Iraqis themselves, it might be good in the long term if Iraq is divided in 3 states, but I expect a bloodbath once America leaves. This and Iranian nukes have the potential of desestabilizing the whole region. 5) Iran: If their nuclear pogram has military purposes (and IMO it has military purposes, if it didn't they'd let the IAEA do its job and confirm that the program has civilian purposes only, but no one knows for sure yet), they will get their nukes, let's face it. Now I don't know how will the Arabs react to this (will they try to get their own nukes too?) and I don't know for sure if their foreign policy will turn to be more supportive of Hezbollah, Hamas and Shiite insurgency across the Middle East or even willing to take a direct military action... It will depend a lot on their internal support. I also don't know how will the rest of the world react on this, the NPT could potentially collapse if Iran gets nukes, especially if the Iranians don't leave it. 6) Afghanistan: I don't expect much change from the current situation. 7) Lebanon: No idea either, things could change rapidly just like in the I-A conflict. Though I doubt Syria (or Israel) will invade Lebanon, unless they (the militias up there or their Army) attack any of these countries (probably Israel), which is unlikely at least for this (and probably next) year.
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