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**Lt_Apple** · 08-17-2009, 07:55 PM

Here is my logic on Syria:

First lets set the record straight. The Assads are friends with no one. Everyone hates them, even their own clan/family. Iranians detest them, so do the Saudis. Mubarak wants to kill them to the last man. In that spectrum, Israel and Israelis are actually fairly middle ground. Me- I think they need to go. Immediately if not sooner, but I digress. They are a puny minority and the last hallmark of minority driven Arab nationalism: Baath, fascism by any reasonable measure.

Now onto the conjecture. There is precedence for Syria to play the sides in Lebanon. There is precedence on how Syria uses assassinations to destabilize the country (actually a number of countries). There is precedence of how Syria plays the Sunnis and Shia off each other to their benefit. And lets agree on the objective: the Syrians want Lebanon back, and they IMO will take it.

I'll make just one scenario, we can have a dozen or more that will be comparable.

1. The Syrians assassinate a top ranking HA member maybe the arch cretin himself.
2. They will implicate (read frame) the Sunnis or the Christians. Probably the latter.
3. Whilst they do this they will feed weapons to the Palestinians and other Sunnis, w/o limiting the weapons to the HA.
4. That should spark:
a. full disintegration of the political status quo.
b. "" the so called Lebanese Army.
c. Start a bloody incident that they will feed with fuel. Arming and secretly promising help to both sides.
5. As the situation massively spirals out of control (civil war take 2) they will be "invited" perhaps at first as part of a coalition to stabilize the country.
6. They will then take pot shots at other coalition members until the latter just leave.
7. And they will do this all whilst pretending to be politically disinterested and concerned for their brother Arabs.
8. Oh and blame Israel too.

Why do you think Jumblatt jumped ship people? The writing is on the wall, he may be a rat but he is not stupid. He knows that the Americans, Europeans an Israelis don't have the minerals to do any immediate remediation when the Assad's wreck their country.

08-17-2009, 07:55 PM	#7
Lt_Apple Join Date Dec 2008 Posts 4,489 Senior Member	Here is my logic on Syria: First lets set the record straight. The Assads are friends with no one. Everyone hates them, even their own clan/family. Iranians detest them, so do the Saudis. Mubarak wants to kill them to the last man. In that spectrum, Israel and Israelis are actually fairly middle ground. Me- I think they need to go. Immediately if not sooner, but I digress. They are a puny minority and the last hallmark of minority driven Arab nationalism: Baath, fascism by any reasonable measure. Now onto the conjecture. There is precedence for Syria to play the sides in Lebanon. There is precedence on how Syria uses assassinations to destabilize the country (actually a number of countries). There is precedence of how Syria plays the Sunnis and Shia off each other to their benefit. And lets agree on the objective: the Syrians want Lebanon back, and they IMO will take it. I'll make just one scenario, we can have a dozen or more that will be comparable. 1. The Syrians assassinate a top ranking HA member maybe the arch cretin himself. 2. They will implicate (read frame) the Sunnis or the Christians. Probably the latter. 3. Whilst they do this they will feed weapons to the Palestinians and other Sunnis, w/o limiting the weapons to the HA. 4. That should spark: a. full disintegration of the political status quo. b. "" the so called Lebanese Army. c. Start a bloody incident that they will feed with fuel. Arming and secretly promising help to both sides. 5. As the situation massively spirals out of control (civil war take 2) they will be "invited" perhaps at first as part of a coalition to stabilize the country. 6. They will then take pot shots at other coalition members until the latter just leave. 7. And they will do this all whilst pretending to be politically disinterested and concerned for their brother Arabs. 8. Oh and blame Israel too. Why do you think Jumblatt jumped ship people? The writing is on the wall, he may be a rat but he is not stupid. He knows that the Americans, Europeans an Israelis don't have the minerals to do any immediate remediation when the Assad's wreck their country.
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