DiscussWorldIssues - Socio-Economic Religion and Political Uncensored Debate - View Single Post - American vacuum in the mideast, Russia moves to fill it

**Lillie_Steins** · 05-27-2010, 03:10 PM

I don't think he's going to. I doubt very much Obama will realize this is somehow an unintended consequence. I believe that his actions speak for themselves. He is looking to extricate the US from the mideast as much as he can. And that means abandoning Israel, as well as abandoning any pretense to support democratic movements in Lebanon, Kurdistan & Egypt. I think Obama is more or less the 'let them kill each other and sort it out that way' thinker. Not quite isolationism but something akin to indifference. That's not to say he won't unwind aid packages to both Egypt and Israel while at the same time offering cash on the barrel deals for weapons tech to any and all comers. Because I think he will. In the meantime he will keep Gen Keith Dayton in place training and equipping the PLO as a face saving effort in the Arab world. I believe he's willing to cede virtually all hard and soft power in the mideast and west Asia to the Chinese, the Russians and Iran.

I think that is probably the "good" scenario. The bad scenario would be Obama continuing his current policy to the point where no state in the region takes the US seriously anymore. Arguably this is already happening.

This is how I see it:

The basis of the American regional order in the Middle East since 1973 has been strong support for Israel. That support deters Arab states from going to war, or becoming too assertive on the Israel/Palestine issue beyond their typical incitement for domestic consumption. The other instrumental factors in American policy is buying off Arab states with aid or military support in order to incentivise acceding to the American order. Both of these foundations have been eroded. The split with Israel, being as harsh and public as it was (and is), coupled with his strongly pro-Arab stance per the Cairo speech, undermined the first essential feature of the regional order and the Arab states are already salivating. Even Fatah, which is absolutely dependent upon the US for its survival, feels that it is in a position to be making demands and dictating terms to the US on peace talks. Inaction on Iran and America's inability and unwillingness to take military action undermines the second pillar of the regional order as, first, the US fails to guarantee the security of its allies and is blatantly defied, and second, the states which are not part of the American regional order (Syria, Iran, Hezbollahstan and Hamastan) are on the rise in terms of their influence.

So, with American power clearly in decline, we're about to see the start of some real changes. What the new regional order will look like is really anybody's guess, it's still early days and we're just at the start of the process. The way to perhaps reverse it would be a decisive display of American power against Iran's nuclear program but that seems very unlikely. Anything else, whether towards "isolationism" or continuing more of the same, is only going to speed up the process of America's decline.

In a less stable regional environment Israel will, in my opinion, have to be more independent and find ways to independently project its power. I have already said that I think Israel could adopt a policy of supporting minorities (or rather, non-Arab and/or non-Muslim groups) in the region as one way of attempting to achieve this capacity.

By the way, I don't know if you're aware, but General Dayton will be stepping down soon.

05-27-2010, 03:10 PM	#4
Lillie_Steins Join Date Oct 2005 Posts 4,508 Senior Member	I don't think he's going to. I doubt very much Obama will realize this is somehow an unintended consequence. I believe that his actions speak for themselves. He is looking to extricate the US from the mideast as much as he can. And that means abandoning Israel, as well as abandoning any pretense to support democratic movements in Lebanon, Kurdistan & Egypt. I think Obama is more or less the 'let them kill each other and sort it out that way' thinker. Not quite isolationism but something akin to indifference. That's not to say he won't unwind aid packages to both Egypt and Israel while at the same time offering cash on the barrel deals for weapons tech to any and all comers. Because I think he will. In the meantime he will keep Gen Keith Dayton in place training and equipping the PLO as a face saving effort in the Arab world. I believe he's willing to cede virtually all hard and soft power in the mideast and west Asia to the Chinese, the Russians and Iran. I think that is probably the "good" scenario. The bad scenario would be Obama continuing his current policy to the point where no state in the region takes the US seriously anymore. Arguably this is already happening. This is how I see it: The basis of the American regional order in the Middle East since 1973 has been strong support for Israel. That support deters Arab states from going to war, or becoming too assertive on the Israel/Palestine issue beyond their typical incitement for domestic consumption. The other instrumental factors in American policy is buying off Arab states with aid or military support in order to incentivise acceding to the American order. Both of these foundations have been eroded. The split with Israel, being as harsh and public as it was (and is), coupled with his strongly pro-Arab stance per the Cairo speech, undermined the first essential feature of the regional order and the Arab states are already salivating. Even Fatah, which is absolutely dependent upon the US for its survival, feels that it is in a position to be making demands and dictating terms to the US on peace talks. Inaction on Iran and America's inability and unwillingness to take military action undermines the second pillar of the regional order as, first, the US fails to guarantee the security of its allies and is blatantly defied, and second, the states which are not part of the American regional order (Syria, Iran, Hezbollahstan and Hamastan) are on the rise in terms of their influence. So, with American power clearly in decline, we're about to see the start of some real changes. What the new regional order will look like is really anybody's guess, it's still early days and we're just at the start of the process. The way to perhaps reverse it would be a decisive display of American power against Iran's nuclear program but that seems very unlikely. Anything else, whether towards "isolationism" or continuing more of the same, is only going to speed up the process of America's decline. In a less stable regional environment Israel will, in my opinion, have to be more independent and find ways to independently project its power. I have already said that I think Israel could adopt a policy of supporting minorities (or rather, non-Arab and/or non-Muslim groups) in the region as one way of attempting to achieve this capacity. By the way, I don't know if you're aware, but General Dayton will be stepping down soon.
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