[MzTT]

Would like to make one more observation after the first two races.
To me it's quite interesting that teams have seemingly been divided into two groups: 4+6. Last year's WCC Top4 have all lost, while chasers have mostly gained. When we look inside of these groups, there is nothing dramatically surprising: in the "Top4" Ferrari and BMW are in front with Renault behind. OK, McLaren has cocked up, but without Hamilton's Melbourne penalty they would have collected most points. On the other hand nothing stunning in the former "chasers group": two Japanese teams (one former though) in front with two privateers (RBR, Williams) closely behind and other two (STR, FI) further behind.

I think before the season at least some changes were expected, but what is incredible, is that all of the former Top4 have cocked up! It was expected that maybe at most 1-2 of them would drop backwards, and maybe 1-2 midfielders will rise upwards. But what has happened, is quite amazing. What may be the background of this?

If we look at those two groups separately, then what could be the reasons behind those rises/falls:
+ Brawn GP - long development period for 2009 and the work results of the specialists hired in 07 (Brawn/Bigois/Zander) have finally been unveiled.
+ Toyota - constant recent progress. What's more remarkable about their rise is that the developed TF108 almost until the end of the year.
+ Red Bull - one could have hoped that the experienced team led by Newey and Willis could think out something clever with rule changes.
+ Williams - again, before the winter I thought the rule changes could suit them. Another question is, for how long?

On the flip-side:
- McLaren - their fall is quite surprising to me. Probably the importance of aerodynamics for '09 has been underrated (McLaren's main weakness recently) and maybe... that's a pure guess now, but just maybe the 2007 Spygate and 100M $ fine has hindered them too. As known, the influence of any changes takes time in F1 - the fine didn't affect 2008 car development, but what about 2009?
- Ferrari - it was feared that the results of the departure of Team MS may come more clearly out in 2009.
- BMW - ban of winglets has hindered them? F1.08 was a more winglet-dependant car than any other on the grid.
- Renault - arguably their tyre-modelling programs aren't top-notch. In 2007 struggled to make a switch to B-stones, now to slicks. And to be honest, I don't think the team is quite the same as in 2005-2006. Yes, they developed nicely at the end of 2008, but they concentrated on their '08 challenger more than anyone else in the end too.

Plus the KERS-factor. The latter four have all got KERS on-board and the development influences of this system are unknown. It may not be impossible that in 2010 we might see another turnaround in pecking order as a standard-KERS will most likely become compulsory, so teams, who are using it at the moment, may have an advantage - but this is of course a pure conjecture.