DiscussWorldIssues - Socio-Economic Religion and Political Uncensored Debate - View Single Post

**sessoorale** · 10-09-2009, 09:37 PM

The US is (and will remain) for a very long time the world's largest and most significant economy. China's GDP per capita is an utter fraction of that in the US.

Moreover, NY's leading position in the world is evidenced not only by the hedge fund figures (and anyone who suggests that hedge funds are irrelevant broadcasts his lack of knowledge regarding finance), but even by the little fact that Thompson Reuters de-listed from London and listed in NY, along with moving its global HQ from London to NY.

Lastly, the suspicion of the Anglo-American financial model will accelerate the growth of European financial centers like Paris and Frankfurt. Given, for example, German mistrust of the British model, a German company seeking to raise funds will be more inclined today do so in Frankfurt -- not London.

The following article from the FT addressed Continental displeasure with the UK model and Paris' desire to rival London as the European financial center.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b278edfe-7...nclick_check=1

The following article from the Economist also addressed Continental's mistrust with the British financial system.

http://www.economist.com/world/europ...ry_id=14082324

I don't believe anyone was disputing the size of the US economy now or in the future. What is happening however is that its share of the global economy is shrinking as emerging markets develop, hence the rise of London is linked to the rise in emerging markets and not restricted to its domestic market. Insular or defensive thinking that ignores the opportunities of emerging markets is a core reason as to why New York has lagged behind London.

I also don't see anyone questioning hedge funds as being irrelevant, only that their outlook compared to other sectors is far less rosy and guaranteed.

Companies and sectors fluctuate. The remains of Lehman Brothers in London are now part of Nomura of Tokyo, but those in New York are part of Barclays. Examples of say Thomson Reuters 'going' to New York, or the husk of New York's Lehman Brothers being British, don't portray the greater picture that New York is failing to play at the global level.

A similar scenario was predicted when the € came about; that London would fall apart and Frankfurt would become Europe's leading financial centre. The reverse happened.

I'd expect a similar scenario to play out where domestic policy will be far more damaging to Paris and Frankfurt, and to barely register in London. In fact, London could actually consolidate its position even further. Now, I am uncertain of the exact figures, but I'd suspect that emerging market IPO's/fund raising expeditions have outstripped those from the continent which are more likely looking for 'insular' funds. Germany is an odd example, especially what with the mittelstand.

I'd also be more concerned with trust on the New York front, especially after Madoff and the decimation of the biggest financial entities in New York.

The even bigger picture is that New York is failing in quite a few areas. Be that in attracting cultural events such as the 2012 Olympics or managing transport developments. In the time it will take to open three stations on the Second Avenue Subway, the 40 station Crossrail line will be complete.

10-09-2009, 09:37 PM	#5
sessoorale Join Date Oct 2005 Posts 463 Senior Member	The US is (and will remain) for a very long time the world's largest and most significant economy. China's GDP per capita is an utter fraction of that in the US. Moreover, NY's leading position in the world is evidenced not only by the hedge fund figures (and anyone who suggests that hedge funds are irrelevant broadcasts his lack of knowledge regarding finance), but even by the little fact that Thompson Reuters de-listed from London and listed in NY, along with moving its global HQ from London to NY. Lastly, the suspicion of the Anglo-American financial model will accelerate the growth of European financial centers like Paris and Frankfurt. Given, for example, German mistrust of the British model, a German company seeking to raise funds will be more inclined today do so in Frankfurt -- not London. The following article from the FT addressed Continental displeasure with the UK model and Paris' desire to rival London as the European financial center. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b278edfe-7...nclick_check=1 The following article from the Economist also addressed Continental's mistrust with the British financial system. http://www.economist.com/world/europ...ry_id=14082324 I don't believe anyone was disputing the size of the US economy now or in the future. What is happening however is that its share of the global economy is shrinking as emerging markets develop, hence the rise of London is linked to the rise in emerging markets and not restricted to its domestic market. Insular or defensive thinking that ignores the opportunities of emerging markets is a core reason as to why New York has lagged behind London. I also don't see anyone questioning hedge funds as being irrelevant, only that their outlook compared to other sectors is far less rosy and guaranteed. Companies and sectors fluctuate. The remains of Lehman Brothers in London are now part of Nomura of Tokyo, but those in New York are part of Barclays. Examples of say Thomson Reuters 'going' to New York, or the husk of New York's Lehman Brothers being British, don't portray the greater picture that New York is failing to play at the global level. A similar scenario was predicted when the € came about; that London would fall apart and Frankfurt would become Europe's leading financial centre. The reverse happened. I'd expect a similar scenario to play out where domestic policy will be far more damaging to Paris and Frankfurt, and to barely register in London. In fact, London could actually consolidate its position even further. Now, I am uncertain of the exact figures, but I'd suspect that emerging market IPO's/fund raising expeditions have outstripped those from the continent which are more likely looking for 'insular' funds. Germany is an odd example, especially what with the mittelstand. I'd also be more concerned with trust on the New York front, especially after Madoff and the decimation of the biggest financial entities in New York. The even bigger picture is that New York is failing in quite a few areas. Be that in attracting cultural events such as the 2012 Olympics or managing transport developments. In the time it will take to open three stations on the Second Avenue Subway, the 40 station Crossrail line will be complete.
	Quote