http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle6948438.ece From Times Online December 8, 2009 UK output signals weak start to fourth quarterRobert Lindsay Recommend? British industrial output failed to grow in October, confounding expectations for a modest rise and suggesting that the economy made a weak start to the fourth quarter. The bleak figures emerged as the Chancellor prepares to unveil the Pre-Budget Report tomorrow when he will reveal his expectations for economic growth, which is widely forecast to be revised down from the 3.5 per cent prediction he made in the Budget earlier this year. Britain is now the only major economy still in recession, trailing the US, China, Japan, Germany and France, after gross domestic product fell by 0.3 per cent in the third quarter. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said today that both industrial and manufacturing output were flat on the month. Analysts had expected an increase of 0.4 per cent on both measures. In addition, September’s figures were revised down, meaning that for the third quarter industrial output contracted by 0.9 per cent rather than the 0.8 per cent most recently estimated. The ONS said this would have a small negative effect on overall third quarter GDP. Today's figures emerged after the British Retail Consortium revealed “disappointing” 1.8 per cent rise in high street sales in November, down from 3.8 per cent in October and 2.8 per cent in September. Alistair Darling is tomorrow expected to press ahead with plans to return VAT to 17.5 per cent in January after reducing it to 15 per cent in December 2008 to help to stimulate spending. The zero growth in industrial output from September to October represents a 7.8 per cent fall against a year ago while production fell 8.4 per cent against a year ago. Within manufacturing, the biggest riser was machinery and equipment, where output increased by 5.6 per cent on the month. The biggest faller was electrical and optical equipment, which dropped by 2.7 per cent. Industrial production has fallen for 18 consecutive months on an annual basis. Howard Archer, the chief European and UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said: "Industrial production was disappointingly only flat month-on-month in October, thereby diluting hopes that it will make a significant positive contribution to GDP in the fourth quarter." Mr Archer said: "This highlights the fact that the UK still faces a difficult battle to develop sustainable, significant recovery." Here's another: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle6817802.ece September 2, 2009 Britain lags behind in global race to economic recovery Ian King, Alexandra Frean and Leo Lewis Fears that Britain is emerging more slowly from recession than other economies were stoked yesterday with figures showing that UK factory output dropped last month. The figures came as similar data for the United States, China and France pointed to an expansion in manufacturing activity in those countries, while Germany’s factories were also highlighted as being in recovery mode. Figures published by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) revealed that UK manufacturing activity, which had been expanding during the previous five months, contracted in August. The CIPS/Markit survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing — where a reading above 50 indicates expansion and below 50 indicates contraction — fell from 50.8 in July to 49.7 in August. The July figures were revised downwards to 50.2. Combined with disappointing lending data from the Bank of England, the surprisingly weak figures helped to send the FTSE 100 index down 89.20 points to 4,819.70. On currency markets, sterling was down against the dollar, with the pound trading later in the session at a six-week low of $1.6137. Economists focused on the gloomy aspects of the survey, including confirmation that manufacturers were continuing to cut jobs. Colin Ellis, at Daiwa Securities, said: “These numbers are a reminder that the economy is nowhere near out of the woods yet.” Elsewhere, hopes that the global economy is emerging from the worst recession since the Second World War were given new impetus with strong manufacturing data from both the US and China.America’s factories have returned to growth for the first time in more than 18 months, while China’s giant manufacturing sector is growing at its fastest rate since the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the start of the global financial crisis a year ago. French factories reported their first expansion in activity since May last year. German manufacturers also reported an improvement. The figures from the US were seen as the most dramatic. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported a reading of 52.9 for its manufacturing index in August, the first since January last year to exceed 50. The ISM said that new orders, new export orders and production had all risen. Agreed US home sales, which have now risen for a record six consecutive months, rose in July to their highest level in two years. But suspicions that the figures had already been priced into the market sent Wall Street sharply lower. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 185.68 at 9,310.60 and the S&P 500 finished down 22.58 at 998.04. In Shanghai, shares rose after Monday’s rout, as figures pointing to further expansion in Chinese manufacturing helped to calm nerves.