[Alupleintilla]

I think it is probably inevitable that Britain will be overtaken by the likes of India, Brazil, etc... these are countries with populations in orders of mangitude greater than Britain could ever support, in addition they are rapidly developing with an expanding consumer class.

It also isn't just Britain that will be knocked down a peg or two, by 2020 China's economy will either be just behind or have already overtaken that of the US, and a decade or two later, India may have overtaken the US as well, relegating the stars and stripes to bronze on the podium. It could quite possibly be that while the 20th century was defined by London and New York, the 21st will be defined by Delhi and Shanghai.


There could also be the possibility of the economies of Canada and Australia overtaking the UK, but that would be reliant upon a massive combination of factors that I doubt would 'align'. For instance even if the British economy was in some sort of permanent recession and state of population loss it would require years of above-average growth in the economy and population in Canada and Australia to overtake the British economy. There was a daily chart the other day which showed that if people

The reality is that Australia, Canada and Britain grew by 2mn in the past 10 years. In addition the growth in immigration as a percentage is on the decline in both Australia and Canada (both peaking in the post-war years), but is rising in Britain.

Of course that population needs to generate for the economy, but growth in all three countries has roughly run parallel give or take one year when one has outdone the other.

While Canada and Australia are both former colonies, there are still significant ties the bind all countries together. For instance Anglo-Dutch Shell is a partner in the biggest planned project (barrels/day) in the Canadian Athabasca oil sands, while BP also has a presence. It so happens that three of the world's largest mining companies (Anglo American, Rio Tinto, BHP Biliton - the later two are Anglo-Australian) are headquartered in London ensuring that Britain cpatures some of the growth Australia gets when it harnesses its natural resources.


The only other thing I can think of is that there is some sort of crazily wild currency fluctuations, otherwise we might as well predict Canada to have a larger economy than that of the US by 2030

If a $2.5trn economy in 10 years there is something definately amiss! At rates of growth like that Australia would have a larger economy than the US sometime in the third decade of this century!


Of course there should be no room form complacency, as there are a wide variety of improvements to be made; more renewable energy sources, less pessimism in the general population, a larger and more efficient public transport network, less red tape, more assistance for entrepreneurs, etc... Yet I laugh at most of these reports that Britain is somehow at the entrance to an abyss when it has taken far more steps over previous decades to create a reasonable balance. Admittedly Britain has taken a hit in the past year due to its financial services operations and the subsequent recession, and next year will be bumpy, but in the long-term it is better placed than most countries. For instance while France and Germany cling on to low-skilled industries, Britain developed it's knowledge economy (4 of the world's leading universities are in Britain). The only manufacturing in the developed world that makes sense in the long-term are highly specialised jobs that require a human touch, eg Bentley cars over manufacturing pre-baked Ford cars.

The unemployment rate in Britain is currently at 7.8% which compares quite favourably to the US (10.2%), the €-area (9.8%), Canada (8.6%), Germany (8.1%), and France (10.1%).

As things go though, the global financial & economic crisis is a mere blip in comparison to the climatic complications we will face over the coming decades and I see that as the biggest hurdle not just for the British economy, but all economies.