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**ticskebasse** · 07-15-2009, 06:48 PM

Palin was not the problem. McCain was the problem...an outright HORRIBLE candidate for the Republican Party, or any party for that matter. President Bush destroyed the GOP, but McCain kicked the old dog on the ground, almost for sport.

Yes. it can be argued that Bush destroyed the GOP. And it can be said that McCain "kicked the old dog on the ground," but the reason this is so is because of Palin.

Tactically, Palin was not the problem. Consistently throughout the 2008 campaign, the numbers showed that the only way the GOP was going to hold onto the White House was if ANY Democratic candidate gave it to them. The easy example is if Edwards won the nomination, and subsequently, revelations about his private life surfaced.

To be elected president, a candidate has to capture the middle while holding onto base support. McCain was actually in the best position among GOP candidates to accomplish this. Who else - Romney? He had more credibility problems with the base than McCain.

As autumn approached, the McCain campaign saw the reality of polling numbers. Palin was chosen to infuse excitement into the campaign, and hold onto the base while McCain moved toward the center. But it was completely cynical. By the time the smoke cleared and everyone realized what had happened, an inexperienced idiot would be taking the oath of office, next in line to a seventy-something with a history of cancer.

Fortunately, the bubble was short-lived. I think Palin's move from a net-positive to a net-negative on the election was the quickest ever recorded in US polling. Even "mainstream" conservative commentary recoiled, leaving her with the likes of Rush Limbaugh.

In the end, the GOP would have lost anyway.

But strategically, Palin is the problem for the GOP. Moderate members want to distance themselves from her, but are not sure how to go about it. So she is quietly isolated. Whatever the reasons for her quitting, this realization probably entered into it.

Palin will remain a problem for the GOP. She remains very popular, not as a politician, but as a celebrity. She will be valuable as a fund-raiser for politicians with narrow constituencies, but on the national scene, she'll brand the GOP with a label it should be trying to move away from.

She'll make a ton of money.

07-15-2009, 06:48 PM	#41
ticskebasse Join Date Oct 2005 Posts 482 Senior Member	Palin was not the problem. McCain was the problem...an outright HORRIBLE candidate for the Republican Party, or any party for that matter. President Bush destroyed the GOP, but McCain kicked the old dog on the ground, almost for sport. Yes. it can be argued that Bush destroyed the GOP. And it can be said that McCain "kicked the old dog on the ground," but the reason this is so is because of Palin. Tactically, Palin was not the problem. Consistently throughout the 2008 campaign, the numbers showed that the only way the GOP was going to hold onto the White House was if ANY Democratic candidate gave it to them. The easy example is if Edwards won the nomination, and subsequently, revelations about his private life surfaced. To be elected president, a candidate has to capture the middle while holding onto base support. McCain was actually in the best position among GOP candidates to accomplish this. Who else - Romney? He had more credibility problems with the base than McCain. As autumn approached, the McCain campaign saw the reality of polling numbers. Palin was chosen to infuse excitement into the campaign, and hold onto the base while McCain moved toward the center. But it was completely cynical. By the time the smoke cleared and everyone realized what had happened, an inexperienced idiot would be taking the oath of office, next in line to a seventy-something with a history of cancer. Fortunately, the bubble was short-lived. I think Palin's move from a net-positive to a net-negative on the election was the quickest ever recorded in US polling. Even "mainstream" conservative commentary recoiled, leaving her with the likes of Rush Limbaugh. In the end, the GOP would have lost anyway. But strategically, Palin is the problem for the GOP. Moderate members want to distance themselves from her, but are not sure how to go about it. So she is quietly isolated. Whatever the reasons for her quitting, this realization probably entered into it. Palin will remain a problem for the GOP. She remains very popular, not as a politician, but as a celebrity. She will be valuable as a fund-raiser for politicians with narrow constituencies, but on the national scene, she'll brand the GOP with a label it should be trying to move away from. She'll make a ton of money.
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