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Caroline Kennedy has the advantage
of great name recognition, political background,
and an ability to raise vast sums of money.

Updated: 12/10/08 08:36 AM
Poll shows N.Y. Democrats favor Kennedy for Senate
Attracts 44% support to Cuomo’s 23% in poll


By Jerry Zremski
NEWS WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF
Tuesday, December 16, 2008


WASHINGTON — Caroline Kennedy is emerging as the favorite among New York Democrats to succeed Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Given how much it will cost for Democrats to hold the seat in a special election in 2010, pundits said, Gov. David A. Paterson might want to appoint a big name such as Kennedy or State Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo.

Within the party, support for Kennedy is about 44 percent, compared with 23 percent for Cuomo, according to a new poll of 957 Democrats in the state, conducted by Public Policy Polling.

While such early polls register name recognition more than long-term voter appeal, political pros said Kennedy and Cuomo should rank as favorites because they, more than anyone else, would likely be able to raise the tens of millions of dollars needed to defend the seat in 2010 and again in 2012.

“The question is: Who can raise $40 million?” said veteran Democratic consultant Hank Sheinkopf of Manhattan.

The cost of the race would make getting re-elected a greater challenge for an upstater such as Rep. Brian Higgins or Mayor Byron W. Brown of Buffalo, especially since they would more likely face a downstate primary challenge than would Kennedy or Cuomo, several sources said.

Whether there is a Democratic primary or not, New York’s next senator could also face a strong Republican challenger who would virtually guarantee that the race would be costly.

Rep. Peter T. King, 61, a widely respected Long Island Republican, said Tuesday that he is exploring a bid for the seat, and he has a hunch he will be running against Kennedy.

“It’s a political sense,” King said. “I don’t think her name would be being pushed as aggressively if she weren’t interested. And if she’s serious about it, she has to be the presumed favorite.”

King said he would have to raise $25 million to $35 million, “and maybe as much as $40 million, especially if it’s against a Kennedy. They have a built-in finance team.”

Kennedy’s cousin Robert F. Kennedy Jr. disclosed her interest in the race last week, noting that she had discussed the possible appointment with Paterson. And the buzz about a Kennedy inheriting the seat once held by the late Sen. Robert F. Kennedy has only grown since then.

Polls released Tuesday seemed to indicate that voters aren’t troubled by the fact that Kennedy, the 51-year-old daughter of the late President John F. Kennedy, has never run for public office and has largely shunned the public eye.

A Marist College poll of 503 registered voters showed Kennedy and Cuomo deadlocked among New York voters overall. But Kennedy had 10- point lead over Cuomo among Democrats, while the attorney general led Kennedy by 13 points among Republicans.

“It’s clear that Caroline Kennedy and Andrew Cuomo are the only candidates under serious consideration who have much name recognition,” said C. Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. “The good news for David Paterson is that both of them are very popular with the Democratic base, and he couldn’t really go wrong by appointing either of them.”

Lee Miringoff, who heads the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, said the name recognition that Kennedy and Cuomo enjoy has a tangible benefit.

“It’s just name recognition — but politicians spend a lot of money for name recognition,” he said.

The built-in advantages that Kennedy and Cuomo enjoy won’t be Paterson’s only consideration.

The appointed senator presumably will be sharing a ticket with the governor, Democratic Sen. Charles E. Schumer and Democratic candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney general, and Paterson may want to use either the Senate appointment or the lieutenant governorship to offer the ticket some geographic balance.

Higgins, for one, thinks Western New York deserves due recognition in the process.

“Certainly [Kennedy and Cuomo] are bigger names, and a vast fundraising network comes with that,” he said. “But all regions of the state have to be represented, and an upstate perspective is important — and that can only be found in an upstate candidate.”

However, Higgins said he has not spoken with Paterson about the post, as Kennedy has. “I stand on my record and my work in the House,” he said.

But that might not be enough with a Kennedy in the picture. Several sources believe that Paterson will determine that King, who has heard encouraging words about his candidacy from State Republican Chairman Joseph N. Mondello and Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds, R-Clarence, could be a formidable candidate.

“Peter King could do very well in Western New York and Central New York,” Sheinkopf said.

A self-described “blue-collar conservative” from Seaford in Nassau County, the eight-term congressman said he would stress homeland security issues to protect downstate while favoring tax incentives to boost the upstate economy.

A lawyer who lost a 1986 bid for state attorney general, King stressed he has “some appreciation that upstate New York exists beyond the Bronx.”

King said he will be testing the waters to see if he can raise the money he will need for a campaign. ...

“Obviously, Kennedy or Cuomo would be a shoo-in,” said Kevin R. Hardwick, a Republican political scientist at Canisius College. “No question about that.”



© 2008 The Buffalo News.