[muytreda]

IMO, I think a race war here is very unlikely. However, this depends on the income/education/quality of life gap between the races. Naturally, the wider the gap, the more likely that is.

However, the long-term trend is a narrowing of the gap between the races - particularly white/afram gap. I actually compared the 1990 to 2000 changes for certain cities in the Southern US (irrelevant they may not be). The figures were those who earned $75,000 in 1990 vs $100,000 in 2000*, and I found the % of Aframs within this category or higher more than doubled, and in a few cities even tripled. It's been a few years since I looked at this, but I'll do it again if you request I do so. It's simply data from the US Census Bureau.

Steering back to topic, if race war breaks out in the near future, it probably will not be due to standard-of-living gaps between the races (barring an unpredictable abrupt widening in the future).

Also, interracial marriages are rising over time. This tells me that prejudice is on the long term increase. Still, a lot of this probably has to do with the narrowing income gap. Financial success does A LOT to reduce negative stereotypes, thus reducing distrust (whether it actually increases outright trust is another question).

So in the end, the ultimate issue is "How many people out there are willing to take a bullet for the sake of any conceivable racial/ethnic mistrust?". So far, nobody within each groups mainstream is willing to. That tells me that the US can very well gracefully switch over from a majority-white nation to a mere plurality-white one. But a lot can happen in the 40 yrs or so, the timeline in which this will take place.

*This takes into account inflation. Genrally, 2 to 3% yearly inflation rate is pretty good. That translates into about a 30% per decade inflation rate. Because 100K = 1/3 more than 75K, I think this is the most fair and accurate assessment - for the purchasing power of each income is more or less the same.