DiscussWorldIssues - Socio-Economic Religion and Political Uncensored Debate - View Single Post - Now that Obama has declared victory... Why is he so weak?

**Cd9JfGHR** · 05-21-2008, 10:51 PM

The Republican party is hurting right now (as three consecutive loses in what should have been secure districts show), the Republicans haven't actually gotten rid of the Ron Paul forces yet, which may cause some issues at the convention.

On top of that McCain's crowds are not particularly enthusiastic, while Obama is drawing immense, very intense crowds. Polls are fine and dandy, but what counts on election day is voter mobilization. In the South there will be massive black turnout, and this could force Republicans, who will have far less money to spend on advertising than Democrats, to spend money in places that should be secure for them, allowing Democrats to outspend them in swing states. Democratic turnout in the primaries has been much greater than republican turnout.

I mean, lets look at Ohio's primary:
at that point it was a sure thing that McCain was going to be the nominee, and yet he got 60% of the vote. A little more than a million republicans voted in the Primary, while almost 2.2 Million Democrats voted. Even is say 30% of those that voted for Hillary decided to go with McCain instead of Obama, and ALL the republicans who voted came out in full force for McCain, that would be:

Obama with 1.8 Million and McCain with 1.4 Million. And yes, this does not account for "independents", or people who did not vote in the general, but even just going by these numbers, the simple enthusiasm gap is going to be a huge albatross around the Republican's neck. Add to that that the leader or the party right now is electoral Kryptonite and that most Republican candidates can't run away from the guy fast enough, and its hard to see republicans picking up ANY state won by the Democrats in 2004, and it looks likely that Democrats will pick up several.

05-21-2008, 10:51 PM	#25
Cd9JfGHR Join Date Oct 2005 Posts 491 Senior Member	The Republican party is hurting right now (as three consecutive loses in what should have been secure districts show), the Republicans haven't actually gotten rid of the Ron Paul forces yet, which may cause some issues at the convention. On top of that McCain's crowds are not particularly enthusiastic, while Obama is drawing immense, very intense crowds. Polls are fine and dandy, but what counts on election day is voter mobilization. In the South there will be massive black turnout, and this could force Republicans, who will have far less money to spend on advertising than Democrats, to spend money in places that should be secure for them, allowing Democrats to outspend them in swing states. Democratic turnout in the primaries has been much greater than republican turnout. I mean, lets look at Ohio's primary: at that point it was a sure thing that McCain was going to be the nominee, and yet he got 60% of the vote. A little more than a million republicans voted in the Primary, while almost 2.2 Million Democrats voted. Even is say 30% of those that voted for Hillary decided to go with McCain instead of Obama, and ALL the republicans who voted came out in full force for McCain, that would be: Obama with 1.8 Million and McCain with 1.4 Million. And yes, this does not account for "independents", or people who did not vote in the general, but even just going by these numbers, the simple enthusiasm gap is going to be a huge albatross around the Republican's neck. Add to that that the leader or the party right now is electoral Kryptonite and that most Republican candidates can't run away from the guy fast enough, and its hard to see republicans picking up ANY state won by the Democrats in 2004, and it looks likely that Democrats will pick up several.
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