[penpizdes]

WASHINGTON – The estimated time when whites will no longer make up the majority of Americans has been pushed back eight years — to 2050 — because the recession and stricter immigration policies have slowed the flow of foreigners into the U.S.

Census Bureau figures released Wednesday update last year's prediction that white children would become a minority in 2023 and the overall white population would follow in 2042. The earlier estimate did not take into account a drop in the number of people moving into the U.S. because of the economic crisis and the immigration policies imposed after the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks.

The 2050 estimate is one of four projections released that is based on rates for births and deaths and a scenario in which immigration continues its more recent, slower pace of adding nearly 1 million new foreigners each year. Demographers said that scenario offers the best look for now at the future demographic makeup based on current conditions, rather than other models which assume higher rates of immigration.

The United States has 308 million people today; two-thirds are non-Hispanic whites.

The total population should climb to 399 million by 2050, under the new projection, with whites making up 49.9 percent of the population. Blacks will make up 12.2 percent, virtually unchanged from today. Hispanics, currently 15 percent of the population, will rise to 28 percent in 2050.

Asians are expected to increase from 4.4 percent of the population to 6 percent.

The point when minority children become the majority is expected to have a similar delay of roughly eight years, moving from 2023 to 2031.

The population 85 and older is projected to more than triple by 2050, to 18.6 million.

The actual shift in demographics will be influenced by a host of factors that can't be accurately forecast — the pace of the economic recovery, cultural changes, natural or manmade disasters, as well as an overhaul of immigration law, which may be debated in Congress as early as next year.

As a result, the Census Bureau said the projections should be used mostly as a guide.

The agency also released numbers showing projections based on "high" rates of immigration — more likely if more-flexible government policies and a booming U.S. economy attract large numbers of foreigners — as well as "low" immigration, a possible scenario if U.S. policies don't change much while the economy substantially improves.

_With high immigration, the minority "tipping point" is moved up to 2040, two years earlier than the previous estimate. At that time, Asians would have a much larger share, at 8 percent, since their population growth is more dependent on immigration than birth rates.

_With low immigration, the "tipping point" arrives by 2045.

Under a purely theoretical "zero immigration" scenario in which the U.S. effectively does not take in any immigrants, whites would remain the majority in 2050, making up a solid 58 percent of the U.S. population. In such a case, the share of Hispanics would increase to 21 percent because of high fertility rates and a younger population.

Under a "zero immigration" model, the 65 and older population also grows substantially faster, comprising nearly 1 in 4 Americans.

"These projections show that immigration will serve to replenish our labor force as baby boomers age into retirement and make our population younger without overburdening our schools and other community resources," said William H. Frey, a demographer at Brookings Institution.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008...opulation.race

[DEMassteers]

[PymnImmen]

The black american population has strategically been kept to around 12-13% for decades. There's no way we are that stagnant. And I've read the white population got the biggest boost from hispanics identifying themselves as white now.


http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/14/us/for-many-latinos-race-is-more-culture-than-color.html?pagewanted=2&ref=mireyanavarro

[ambiddetcat]

A majority of Latinos identify themselves as white. Among them is Fiordaliza A. Rodriguez, 40, a New York lawyer who says she considers herself white because “I am light-skinned” and that is how she is viewed in her native Dominican Republic. Imagine if light skinned Aframs tried to do that...there would be a lot of Black White people....or would it be White Black people...?

[adultcheee]

The black american population has strategically been kept to around 12-13% for decades. There's no way we are that stagnant. And I've read the white population got the biggest boost from hispanics identifying themselves as white now.


http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/14/us/for-many-latinos-race-is-more-culture-than-color.html?pagewanted=2&ref=mireyanavarro

The Black American is probably around 15-17% of the US population. Alot of Aframs especially in the inner cities do not fill out the US Census forms. I used to work for the US Census, and alot of Aframs refused to fill out the Census forms.

[mvjvz]

I dont know what to make of all this but im sure going to have at least 3 babies

[Vcwdldva]

It would be pretty weird/unexpected, that's for sure. But I'm pretty certain the far Northeast at least will keep its white majority.

[O25YtQnn]

We really are a multiculturalist nation .

And if anyone has the right to be angry it would be native Americans.

And if any white american doesn't like the fact that America will soon be a country where white people are a minority(if take into account "one drop rule" actually whites are a minority), perhaps they should consider moving to Europe

[fenter1]

And if anyone has the right to be angry it would be native Americans.

And if any white american doesn't like the fact that America will soon be a country where white people are a minority(if take into account "one drop rule" actually whites are a minority), perhaps they should consider moving to Europe

Why are you being so hostile? I don't think most white Americans care, they'll probably just think it's odd because it seems so surreal that whites could be a minority in America in the future.

[Buhoutsoupfap]

The Black American is probably around 15-17% of the US population. Alot of Aframs especially in the inner cities do not fill out the US Census forms. I used to work for the US Census, and alot of Aframs refused to fill out the Census forms.

Why they refuse?

[NikitahDE]

Why are you being so hostile? I don't think most white Americans care, they'll probably just think it's odd because it seems surreal.

Agreed. It was bound to happen sooner or later but you don't have to be so "in your face" about it.


San Jose already has a white minority and in my specific district, they are an even smaller minority in comparison to the entire city. However, San Jose is still one of the best large cities to live in and my area remains fairly wealthy and definitely much more so than the general US population even taking into consideration the living expenses of the region.

[masaredera]

Why are you being so hostile? I don't think most white Americans care, they'll probably just think it's odd because it seems so surreal that whites could be a minority in America in the future.

if Mulattos and half-asians start to count themselves as whites, when will whites then be in minority in USA?

[RuttyUttepe]

Why are you being so hostile? I don't think most white Americans care, they'll probably just think it's odd because it seems so surreal that whites could be a minority in America in the future.

Am I being realistic.

[PoideAdelereX]

if Mulattos and half-asians start to count themselves as whites, when will whites then be in minority in USA?

To be honest I'm not sure but even if that happened it really wouldn't change anything because the reality is that they're not going to be considered white and they don't consider themselves white so it wouldn't make a difference either way.

[Caunnysup]

Am I being realistic.

I think people identifying themselves as white in US will be close to 60% even in 2100

[mensforyouthis]

Why they refuse?

Because they are ignorant

Actually, Whites of a full European orgin in the US are really only 45-50% of the US population if you take into the account of 1/3 of White Americans having either Native American or African ancestry.

That means that Whites genotypically speaking are not the majority of the US right now, and will soon be less in the next generation or so.

---------- Post added 2012-01-27 at 14:31 ----------

I think people identifying themselves as white in US will be close to 60% even in 2100

That will definitly happen. Thanks to a large part of Hispanics identifying as White, and Euro-Asian biracials seem to indentify as Whitelike Keanu Reeves, and Chad Michael Murray.

I think Afro-Euro biracials will be accepted as White as well. Kris Humphries, Rashida Jones, Vin Diesel, and Wentworth Miller as seen as White by US society

[spoddersedpn]

I think people identifying themselves as white in US will be close to 60% even in 2100

Perhaps, a good percentage of what the US considers Hispanic/Latinos identifies as white. In my zip code, the population is around 33% Hispanic/Latino and 13.7% of the total 33% identify as white. The Hispanic/Latinos in my area are more than 90% Mexican so more than 1/3 of them identify as white.

Based on my day to day encounters though, 33.3% + of the Mexican population here is definitely not white by American standards.

[gundas]

Agreed. It was bound to happen sooner or later but you don't have to be so "in your face" about it.


San Jose already has a white minority and in my specific district, they are an even smaller minority in comparison to the entire city. However, San Jose is still one of the best large cities to live in and my area remains fairly wealthy and definitely much more so than the general US population even taking into consideration the living expenses of the region.

The Bay Area is sort of an anomaly though. The Silicon Valley industry combined with mass immigration of highly educated Asians. Overall it is very well integrated, but I'm sure on the east side of SJ you can still find some scary hoods. You know Santana Row used to be one of the most gang-infested parts of town before it was bulldozed and gentrified. I noticed something similar happened up in East Palo Alto. Oakland and Richmond though, they still look pretty rough. If you're wondering, yes I used to live in San Jose and Milpitas.

[sam]

We really are a multiculturalist nation .

And if anyone has the right to be angry it would be native Americans.

And if any white american doesn't like the fact that America will soon be a country where white people are a minority(if take into account "one drop rule" actually whites are a minority), perhaps they should consider moving to Europe

Do I sense some angst in here?

[Idonnaink]

I don't even plan on living in America in a few years so I'll be watching this unfold from the bleachers!