[kentbrookug]

He'll carry the big blue states come November. There is no doubt about that.

[Liaiskelile]

I think the argument always has been that while Clinton wins the more 'traditional Democrat' areas (union, working class) Obama wins the more moderate groups (oddly since he's the more liberal candidate in theory?) and the young 'need a change' folks, who:
a) Don't exist in Kentucky
b) More likely wouldn't vote democrat (or wouldn't vote at all) if not for him.

California is the one that confuses me the most... maybe I just don't understand that state, but I would've thought he'd win that state, or at least do better, hispanic vote or no...

[xresultsearch]

Originally posted by DanS
What states is Obama going to pick off?

Ohio, and potentially a couple of western states.

I think the real question will be, who loses more of their base:

McCain - far-right, libertarian, christian conservatives
Obama - working class, unions

Whomever is able to keep more of their base, whether via VP choice, or something else, will win the election.

PA/MI brings up an interesting point: Any good VP choices from there for either side?

[K0aM7urg]

The polls show that he would win CA now (along with other 2/5 states). The race changed by quite a bit after Ultra Mega Tuesday.


What states is Obama going to pick off?

The polls show that he's ahead in CO, NM, IA, and NV (that alone + Kerry is victory). He has almost even odds to take OH or VA. And he's competitive in AK, MO, IN, NC, and FL (I'm guessing he would win 1-2 of these states today). It's true that he has to worry about defense in a few states: WI, MI, and NH, notably, and to a lesser extent PA. But the playing field looks pretty decent right now. I'm guessing that it'll look a lot better after Obama consolidates Dems and we get closer to November.

[DuesTyr]

Originally posted by snoopy369
ZK: I'd be shocked if he got half of those states... we'll see I guess

Ramo: The biggest thing that Obama has to overcome is the usual Republican gain from now until November. The states he is close in may well become Republican in a few months... McCain has the unenviable task of attempting to sail between Scylla and Caribdis. On one hand, he has to sail right in order to pick up the base of the party and especially its big doners. On the other hand, he has to sail to the middle to coax the independants and moderates away from Obama. IMHO, not only can't he do it, he won't be able to come close to doing it.

He won't get crushed the way Dukakis and Goldwater did, but there's going to be a tidal shift in the electorate and he's going to be buried.

[prowsnobswend]

Originally posted by DanS
I've thought for a while now that Obama is a strong candidate. But it seems odd that he was blown out in a state like Kentucky. Couldn't carry California. Couldn't carry Texas. Couldn't carry Pennsylvania. All the while he was the presumptive nominee.

Weak. The campaign hasn't really started. Hillary is still in the public eye, and the fight for the Democratic nomination is still the story. Obama can't campaign against Hillary on grounds of things like Iraq and Katrina, because she wasn't primarily responsible for them (even though she voted for the war, she wasn't a member of the party that was pushing it).

When Obama goes against McCain full time it will be broadside after broadside aimed at Republican incompetence. If Obama was running against the McCain of 2000, he would probably lose. However, he's running against a McCain who has spent the last 8 years soiling his own trousers by associating himself with possibly the worst administration in US history.

My suspicion is that this is going to be a different kind of election. Since Nixon, the Republican strategy has been to appeal (overtly or covertly) to one portion of the population against another. The Democrats used to do this as well. But that kind of group politics is less effective than it used to be, due to the increasing fragmentation of American society. The fact that campaigns based on it have become ever more poisonous is evidence that it takes more and more to get it to work. If McCain wins this time, the campaign will probably be the filthiest in living memory. Unfortunately for him, the one thing that does seem to unite a majority of Americans right now is a loathing for the current administration.

People forget that Bush originally campaigned as a centrist Republican, and most people thought he would be like his father (who was a fairly inoffensive and competent President). If 9/11 had never happened, he would likely have been dumped in 2004 if he'd tried to carry on as he has. He's been living off of 9/11 for most of his presidency, and it is no longer working very well. You can only get so far when your policies are direct denials of objective facts.

You only need look at Poly. Many posters who were dyed in the wool conservatives 5 years ago have now moved left towards the right wing of the democrats (Imran is the obvious example - Ted also went from being a Republican to being a radical leftist). The only tories left here tend to be the fanatics and elderly people like Ming and rah, who can be excused on grounds of advancing senility.

[eocavrWM]

Many posters who were dyed in the wool conservatives 5 years ago have now moved left towards the right wing of the democrats (Imran is the obvious example - Ted also went from being a Republican to being a radical leftist).

OTOH, I'm seriously leaning towards McCain right now over Obama. So, there is that.

[Ceakicknunk]

Originally posted by snoopy369

Ramo: The biggest thing that Obama has to overcome is the usual Republican gain from now until November. The states he is close in may well become Republican in a few months... Uh no. The biggest thing he has to overcome is the fact that a lot of Americans won't vote for a black guy.

In fact, you better hope he overcomes that, even if he loses. That's because if you think African Americans are pissed at how they are treated now, you look at how mad they'll be if a candidate like Obama, who is about as post-racial as one can get in this day and age, gets beat because of racism. Obama isn't Al Sharpton or even Jesse Jackson. He's just a gifted politician who happens to be black.

[Appeselve]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
OTOH, I'm seriously leaning towards McCain right now over Obama. So, there is that. I can understand that. McCanin is by far the best candidate that the Repugs could have nominated.

But once the campaigning for the general election gets into swing, you will see that he has nothing to offer except recycled ashes.

[Gabbavnf]

Bit of a gimmick, that, even if it's one I happen to like.

-Arrian

[Symnunidanimb]

You only need look at Poly. Many posters who were dyed in the wool conservatives 5 years ago have now moved left towards the right wing of the democrats (Imran is the obvious example - Ted also went from being a Republican to being a radical leftist). The only tories left here tend to be the fanatics and elderly people like Ming and rah, who can be excused on grounds of advancing senility.

That's hardly proof of anything... Lots of people radically shift their political views - in fact, it's more common than not in my experience. My dad, for example, has been in the last 15 years a Reagan conservative, a near-socialist, and now a W. conservative ...

I think in general American politics has moved right, not left, in the last 30 years. The democrats are now winning elections - but it's because they're moving right, and a short-term popular annoyance at the Republicans, not because of a left movement. Look at the folks that are winning these 'shocking victories' in congressional special elections - they're largely conservatives who happen to put the word 'democrat' in front of their name so they can win.

[timmybrown]

Originally posted by snoopy369

I think in general American politics has moved right, not left, in the last 30 years. The democrats are now winning elections - but it's because they're moving right, and a short-term popular annoyance at the Republicans, not because of a left movement. Look at the folks that are winning these 'shocking victories' in congressional special elections - they're largely conservatives who happen to put the word 'democrat' in front of their name so they can win. And then you look at the overwhelming support for things like public healthcare. It's not quite as clear cut as you think.

I think you misunderstand me. I think the Democrats are only slightly better than the Republicans. But in the end there is little difference: popular authoritarianism rules the day. As I said in another thread, democratic politics in most countries is of only theoretical interest. Denial seems to be the operative mode. There are more extreme right wingers, but that basically means there are more idiots.

Look, you can tell when things get really bad because comedians are the only ones providing real political commentary. It's almost like the Middle Ages, where only the jester was allowed to tell the truth.

[DoctorTOneery]

Originally posted by Ogie Oglethorpe
Poly folk have aggravated me to the point of becoming hard right from my moderate stances 5 years ago. You were hard right back then. If anything, you seem rather more moderate now.

[avaiptutt]

Originally posted by LordShiva
Why have 10-20% of Republican primary voters been voting for Huckabee and Paul, given that McCain is teh actual (not presumptive) nominee? My guess is it is a protest vote.

[Suvuseh]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara


You were hard right back then. If anything, you seem rather more moderate now. Naah I was an Amnesty International, anti Aprtheid demonstrating college dweeb back in the late 80's early 90's.

[LomodiorCon]

And now you're pro-apartheid?

[BigBobdd]

And then you look at the overwhelming support for things like public healthcare. It's not quite as clear cut as you think.

Have you even seen what sort of crap they're calling 'public health care'? We might support it in polls, but when it comes to actually PAYING for it...

[soineeLom]

Well, if that's what you predict, we can be sure the opposite will happen.

[carinsurancess]

Seriously, I'm encouraged by that prediction.

-Arrian

[JohnImamadviser]

Originally posted by Arrian
Seriously, I'm encouraged by that prediction.

-Arrian Because of the Ben doesn't know **** about America principle?