[DoctorBeny]

Hmm, this David Walker seems like a smart chap:

David Walker - 60 Minutes report

[UvgpXK0J]

Originally posted by Theben
I posted this about a month ago. Most here regarded it as scaremongering; haven't seen it myself. Ah yes, missed it:

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthrea...05#post5385005

[HcMkOKiz]

Originally posted by Darius871
Wouldn't there be some point where the Bank of China, OPEC countries, etc. would say enough is enough? What happens on that day? Then they wouldn't sell their exports to the US either, because they get dollars for them. That's still unimaginable.

[beethyday]

Originally posted by Darius871
Then why care about deficits at all? Why not set the debt to 1000% of GDP, if their "need" to export to us translates into a need to lend to us without limit? It doesn't make sense. Something's gotta give. The amount the export to us determines how much they lend us. The trade deficit obviously matters, but their ability to export to us is limited so is the amount they will lend to us.

[wbeachcomber]

Originally posted by Darius871
Please elaborate. In the case of China they can only save so much, and you need to save to export. In fact, that's getting harder in China due to wage pressure.

Oil exporting is a little different because if the price of oil goes up so will the value of the exports. Their exports aren't constrained by their own economy, but by the price of oil and how much we consume. But if the price of oil goes too high then the US will go into a recession. That's a constraint itself.

[newpiknicker]

Originally posted by Darius871
I never said anything about "saving." Suppose in 2018 the Bank of China up and decides to take its abundant foreign exchange reserves derived from exports, and invest them in countries other than the U.S. (or in different portions of the U.S. market), where they could get a higher rate of return and/or lower risk of default than treasury securities? How would that choice so drastically "constrain" their ability to export? Well if they did that it would cause the value of the dollar to collapse. First, their currency is pegged to the dollar. Second, if they let it float or pegged it to something else they would get far less for their exports because of the decreased value of the dollar. So they really can't do that unless they don't have any further interest in exporting to the US.