Which country is Bush's next target?
 

An attack on North Korea would shatter relations with China, involve unforeseeable consequences (nuclear or other weapons) require support on the home front , which although not living in America i would highly doubt after the sucess story Iraq, require a little rebuilding afterwards and therefore would be completely insane...

right,you are clever.China and Russia and South Korea will stop Bush attack North Korea.Japan will glad to see US attack North Korea:Thank you.Uncle Sam,thank you destroy North Korea for Japan.

if Bush really attack North Korea,will China send soldiers to Korea as 1950s.this is a interesting problem.the answer is:YES.

if Bush don't attack North Korea,nothing will happen in Asia.

Iran. After that, who knows?

I agree with that Bush will attack Iran.
US is drop deep in Iraq now,if Bush attack Iran,it will ....

If Iran fall dwon,many country will afraid Bush's next target is he.they will boycott US.and i think american will lonesome:no friend in the world.

Another argument against an attack : Would an attack on increase or decrease Taiwans security ? Most likely the latter.
I think US support for Taiwan and Chinese support for North Korea serve a similar purpose. To have one foot in the door. China has the possibilty to influence US political and strategical planning by loosening or thightening the rope around Kim Jong Ils neck (missile tests , threats to South Korea or Japan ?), and something similar happens in Taiwan. The US have for example repeadeatly expressed dismay at chinese political decisions by announcing weapon sales to Taiwan. Both countries are in my opinion chess figures, that is clear to both sides and an attack on one would probably mean at least the loss of your own figure and maybe a lot more. No, an attack on North Korea is in my opinion out of the question.
And we didn´t even talk about the possible economic implications.

right.
Asia is tinderbox

One of my schticks here at USPOL is to constantly say how behind China's military is. People are ignorant of this. I will say the same to you. Even if we took the US out of the picture, China could probably not take Taiwan. If you would like me to demonstrate, just say so and I will do the appropriate copy-paste from an older post.

Chinese military planners surely know themselves that they are backwards. And wouldn´t an open attack on Taiwan would mean war with the US ( Taiwan relations act) ?
Nevermind, i was just trying to point out, that China would retaliate somehow (in case of an attack on North Korea), and Taiwan would be a place where vital american strategic interests are concerned.
Aside from an attack many measures counterproductive to Taiwans secure and peaceful development are thinkable.

please do, I would like to read it.

They do, but I am referring to civilians, like your everyday poster on this board.

That's a good question. Haven't read the TRA in a while. I'll get back to you.

China has little chance of taking Taiwan now. Even with the US out of the picture. I will do the copy-paste in a bit.

I don't think President Bush will be attacking any other countries. Though I believe states who harbor or provide material aid to terrorists engaged in making war against the United States should be attacked, the momentum has been lost and the political will/courage is no longer there.

......

Source = An old post of mine.
China's got about 300 Su-27/30 Flankers. 2/3 of them are vintage, lacking modern avionics. The rest are not too bad. They got about 300 J-8(2) (read F-4 Phantom with shitty avionics), and maybe 800 Mig-21's of various quality. The J-7B (Mig-21) sucks ass, uses old missiles, has low range, the later J-7E/G have longer range, better missiles.

Suggest you consult this site: http://www.sinodefence.com/default.asp

Taiwan, IIRC, has 60 Mirage 2000 and 150 F-16. They also have some 300 IDF and F-5 Freedom Fighter, maybe a few hundred more give or take. Su-27 owns Mirage 2000 in terms of payload, maneuverablity, thrust to weight ratio (I believe) and range. Mirage 2000 may have better avionics (radar, and computer interface (it makes a difference)). So, I will just say that China lacks several things:

• Enough AWACS to control and coordinate its fighters
• A distinctive qualitative/quantitative edge in the air
• Lack of ground attack aircraft (China's latest generation is the JH-7A which is well behind in terms of production schedule. I don't know what China has by the way of land attack missiles. They imported some stuff from Russia. Will have to get back to you on the homegrown stuff. Offhand I will say Kh-31P Krypton is the weapon of choice, used by Flanker, don't know about JH-7A.

Now that's just the air. Let's talk briefly about the navy and the AMPHIBIOUS forces.

China's navy sucks. They have two new prototype Aegis, two other ships that are not too bad at air defense, and two new air defence ships building in the docks. It's insufficient for defending an invasion fleet.

The actual landing craft: NO landing carriers (such as our USS Wasp). Also, that means no using hovercrafts to rapidly land troops. The landing ships they have are WW2 style. Totally inadequate fucking sitting ducks for anti-ship missiles which Taiwan has A SHIT LOAD OF. You can fire an anti-ship missile off the back of a truck, as the British learned in 1982.

The actual amphibious tanks suck ass. They have 105mm guns and thin armor. They would be wiped out, assuming they even made it onto the beaches. You can have a look at Taiwan's military on that global security link. Look at how much artillery and armor they have. No landing force has a chance in hell at survival. Last I heard, China can move 30,000 men at one time. ROC's army is some 250,000 not counting reserves, IIRC......

Let's not even get started about shoulder-fired and portable anti-tank weapons......

......

Source = An old post of mine.
China's got about 300 Su-27/30 Flankers. 2/3 of them are vintage, lacking modern avionics. The rest are not too bad. They got about 300 J-8(2) (read F-4 Phantom with shitty avionics), and maybe 800 Mig-21's of various quality. The J-7B (Mig-21) sucks ass, uses old missiles, has low range, the later J-7E/G have longer range, better missiles.

Suggest you consult this site: http://www.sinodefence.com/default.asp

Taiwan, IIRC, has 60 Mirage 2000 and 150 F-16. They also have some 300 IDF and F-5 Freedom Fighter, maybe a few hundred more give or take. Su-27 owns Mirage 2000 in terms of payload, maneuverablity, thrust to weight ratio (I believe) and range. Mirage 2000 may have better avionics (radar, and computer interface (it makes a difference)). So, I will just say that China lacks several things:

• Enough AWACS to control and coordinate its fighters
• A distinctive qualitative/quantitative edge in the air
• Lack of ground attack aircraft (China's latest generation is the JH-7A which is well behind in terms of production schedule. I don't know what China has by the way of land attack missiles. They imported some stuff from Russia. Will have to get back to you on the homegrown stuff. Offhand I will say Kh-31P Krypton is the weapon of choice, used by Flanker, don't know about JH-7A.

Now that's just the air. Let's talk briefly about the navy and the AMPHIBIOUS forces.

China's navy sucks. They have two new prototype Aegis, two other ships that are not too bad at air defense, and two new air defence ships building in the docks. It's insufficient for defending an invasion fleet.

The actual landing craft: NO landing carriers (such as our USS Wasp). Also, that means no using hovercrafts to rapidly land troops. The landing ships they have are WW2 style. Totally inadequate fucking sitting ducks for anti-ship missiles which Taiwan has A SHIT LOAD OF. You can fire an anti-ship missile off the back of a truck, as the British learned in 1982.

The actual amphibious tanks suck ass. They have 105mm guns and thin armor. They would be wiped out, assuming they even made it onto the beaches. You can have a look at Taiwan's military on that global security link. Look at how much artillery and armor they have. No landing force has a chance in hell at survival. Last I heard, China can move 30,000 men at one time. ROC's army is some 250,000 not counting reserves, IIRC......

Let's not even get started about shoulder-fired and portable anti-tank weapons...... http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...-inventory.htm

With any luck, Bush will be gone before he has a chance to attack anyone else. I don't see us attacking any Asian countries. Wal-Mart would die a painful death.

I think it will be a ME country like Syria.

Wal-Mart is evil.they just pay an ordinary worker $50 one month in China.
and i think Bush will step down quickly if he attack Iran

• China lacks air superiority over the Taiwan Strait. As I mentioned earlier, they are roughly on par with Taiwan's air force.
• China's navy is obsolete, and cannot protect landing ships from anti-ship missilies. Taiwan has a great many anti-ship missile. I think that a great many Chinese ship would be sent to the bottom before even being able to reach the beach. That's what happens when you fight WWII style in 2006.
• China has relatively few amphibious ships, no heavy lift hovercraft, weak amphibious tanks, no amphibious carriers, and only a handful of ground support aircraft. As opposed to Taiwan, which has an enormous amount of tank, anti-tank and artillery just waiting for the Chinese forces on the otherside.

So, I think even in 5 years, assuming China's growing military power, it will still be practically impossible for them to forcefully take Taiwan, even if Taiwan gets no US military assistance.


Chinese landing ship:

http://img41.exs.cx/img41/4653/tank19pe.jpg


Taiwanese Hsiung Feng Missile:

http://www.netmarine.net/armes/missiles/mis25.jpg