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#21 |
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According to the U.S. Census Bureau in the last 30 years, the number of U.S. women who reached the end of their childbearing years without bearing a child went from 10 percent to 20 percent.
The findings also highlight the shrinking of the average American family. In 1976, women on average had 3.1 children, but that figure had fallen by 2006 to 1.9 children. That is below the level of fertility needed to ensure a stable population - 2.1 children per woman is known in demographic jargon as "replacement-level fertility". Expressed another way, 30 years ago 59% of women used to have three or more children, but that has also tailed off to just 28%. There is also a striking variation in the frequency of childless women according to their race or origin. The proportion of white women, excluding those of Hispanic origin, who have no children is much higher than other groups at 23%. Hispanic women are the least likely to remain childless at 14%, with black women at 16% and Asian women at 18%. Women are waiting longer to finish their education so childbearing starts later," said Jennifer Manlove, a researcher specialising in teenage pregnancies with the organisation Child Trends. Highly educated women are not just delaying pregnancy, they are now far more likely to remain childless full stop. The proportion of graduates or those with a professional degree without children aged 40 to 44 rises to more than one in four - 27%. That compares with just 15% - less than one in six - for US women who did not complete their schooling. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/19/us/19census.html http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/20/usa1 http://www.findingdulcinea.com/news/...ata-Shows.html ![]() |
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#22 |
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In terms of economies, future major countries may displace Britain such as the BRIC Nations and obviously the US, Japan and Germany have larger econmies than Britain, but I doubt Australia or Canada will by 2015 and within the EU the exchange rate has much to do with Britains current position.
It is unlikely that Brazil and India will overtake the UK Economy for some time, and certainly not within 5 years, Russia may overtake the UK but that is dependent on Gas prices, Russia being home to vast gas and oil fields. China will amost certainly overtake the UK Economy, with many reports suggesting it has already done so, but the sheer size of a country with a population of 1.3 Billion makes this inevitable. It should be noted though, that in China a married couple is only allowed to have one child, and given the fact that the male child is much more important to the Chinese, they tend to abort or try to get rid of female babies, and this has led to a glut of males and far too few females, so China has severe future population sustainability problems. Finally if Turkey and indeed Russia eventually join the EU, the joint population of the European Union will be over 700 million, and this will create a very powerful economic and political union indeed. ![]() |
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#24 |
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Russia in the EU? I can't see that happening. http://ec.europa.eu/external_relatio...a/index_en.htm http://www.eu-russiacentre.org/ http://www.rferl.org/content/Russia_..._/1882830.html |
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#26 |
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#27 |
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http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle6948438.ece
From Times Online December 8, 2009 UK output signals weak start to fourth quarterRobert Lindsay Recommend? British industrial output failed to grow in October, confounding expectations for a modest rise and suggesting that the economy made a weak start to the fourth quarter. The bleak figures emerged as the Chancellor prepares to unveil the Pre-Budget Report tomorrow when he will reveal his expectations for economic growth, which is widely forecast to be revised down from the 3.5 per cent prediction he made in the Budget earlier this year. Britain is now the only major economy still in recession, trailing the US, China, Japan, Germany and France, after gross domestic product fell by 0.3 per cent in the third quarter. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said today that both industrial and manufacturing output were flat on the month. Analysts had expected an increase of 0.4 per cent on both measures. In addition, September’s figures were revised down, meaning that for the third quarter industrial output contracted by 0.9 per cent rather than the 0.8 per cent most recently estimated. The ONS said this would have a small negative effect on overall third quarter GDP. Today's figures emerged after the British Retail Consortium revealed “disappointing” 1.8 per cent rise in high street sales in November, down from 3.8 per cent in October and 2.8 per cent in September. Alistair Darling is tomorrow expected to press ahead with plans to return VAT to 17.5 per cent in January after reducing it to 15 per cent in December 2008 to help to stimulate spending. The zero growth in industrial output from September to October represents a 7.8 per cent fall against a year ago while production fell 8.4 per cent against a year ago. Within manufacturing, the biggest riser was machinery and equipment, where output increased by 5.6 per cent on the month. The biggest faller was electrical and optical equipment, which dropped by 2.7 per cent. Industrial production has fallen for 18 consecutive months on an annual basis. Howard Archer, the chief European and UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said: "Industrial production was disappointingly only flat month-on-month in October, thereby diluting hopes that it will make a significant positive contribution to GDP in the fourth quarter." Mr Archer said: "This highlights the fact that the UK still faces a difficult battle to develop sustainable, significant recovery." Here's another: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle6817802.ece September 2, 2009 Britain lags behind in global race to economic recovery Ian King, Alexandra Frean and Leo Lewis Fears that Britain is emerging more slowly from recession than other economies were stoked yesterday with figures showing that UK factory output dropped last month. The figures came as similar data for the United States, China and France pointed to an expansion in manufacturing activity in those countries, while Germany’s factories were also highlighted as being in recovery mode. Figures published by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) revealed that UK manufacturing activity, which had been expanding during the previous five months, contracted in August. The CIPS/Markit survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing — where a reading above 50 indicates expansion and below 50 indicates contraction — fell from 50.8 in July to 49.7 in August. The July figures were revised downwards to 50.2. Combined with disappointing lending data from the Bank of England, the surprisingly weak figures helped to send the FTSE 100 index down 89.20 points to 4,819.70. On currency markets, sterling was down against the dollar, with the pound trading later in the session at a six-week low of $1.6137. Economists focused on the gloomy aspects of the survey, including confirmation that manufacturers were continuing to cut jobs. Colin Ellis, at Daiwa Securities, said: “These numbers are a reminder that the economy is nowhere near out of the woods yet.” Elsewhere, hopes that the global economy is emerging from the worst recession since the Second World War were given new impetus with strong manufacturing data from both the US and China.America’s factories have returned to growth for the first time in more than 18 months, while China’s giant manufacturing sector is growing at its fastest rate since the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the start of the global financial crisis a year ago. French factories reported their first expansion in activity since May last year. German manufacturers also reported an improvement. The figures from the US were seen as the most dramatic. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported a reading of 52.9 for its manufacturing index in August, the first since January last year to exceed 50. The ISM said that new orders, new export orders and production had all risen. Agreed US home sales, which have now risen for a record six consecutive months, rose in July to their highest level in two years. But suspicions that the figures had already been priced into the market sent Wall Street sharply lower. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 185.68 at 9,310.60 and the S&P 500 finished down 22.58 at 998.04. In Shanghai, shares rose after Monday’s rout, as figures pointing to further expansion in Chinese manufacturing helped to calm nerves. |
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#28 |
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#29 |
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It's not all bad news by any means -
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/be58ffb8-e...44feab49a.html http://www.cityam.com/news-and-analysis/kezgthwgsr.html |
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#31 |
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I believe Scotland is expected to do slightly worse than the UK as a whole. |
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#32 |
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#33 |
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This news from today reiterates what I said yesterday.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle6948438.ece |
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#34 |
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The latest Lloyds Survey has found that an increasing number of UK Businesses are up beat and that an increasing number are starting to hire again.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126022595936080863.html http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...7-03ad2770a5f2 As for the UK Banking Sector, it is mainly made up of Foreign Banks who are based in the City of London. Britain has a history of specialist expertise in areas such as Finance, Business Services, Bio-Techs, Entertainment, Education, Construction, Electronics, Communications, Aviation and Hi-Tech Sectors, which is something we can draw upon in order to build a more specialised knowledge based economy. http://www.egovmonitor.com/node/27160/print http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle6948145.ece The UK was hit hard by the financiall crash, however it should be noted that Honda has just overtaken Chrysler to nudge it's way in to the top four in the US Car Market joining Toyota, and that US Industry is being increasingly displaced by Far Eatern and Chinese industry. So there is little room for any complacency or smugness on the other side of the Atlantic. http://rumors.automobilemag.com/6583...les/index.html ![]() |
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#36 |
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thestandard.co.uk
100,000 firms in danger of going bankrupt, expert says Hugo Duncan 08.12.09 A top London insolvency expert today warned that 100,000 businesses face collapse in the next two years, putting up to one million jobs at risk.Nick Hood, executive chairman of Begbies Traynor, told the Evening Standard that as many as 50,000 firms in the UK could become insolvent in 2010 and then again in 2011, steeply increased from this year's approximately 32,000. The sharp rise would add between 500,000 and one million people to the unemployment total as the economy suffers a dreaded "W-shaped" rather than "V-shaped" recession. Hood said: "We could be half way up the 'V' or getting close to the second fall of the 'W'. My guess is the latter. A second correction is coming. "I have an awful feeling that people do not understand how bad this really is. The pain is being delayed."He said "now is the most dangerous time for businesses" because as the economy improves firms cannot get hold of the working capital they need to meet the increased workload. "These businesses will not find the money to support the growth," said Hood. "Banks don't have the money to lend. The big story of 2010 will be businesses failing not because of the recession but because of the recovery." The sectors most at risk, he argued, included retail, construction, printing and professional services such as lawyers and accountants. "The carnage will be among small and medium-sized businesses - good, old owner-managed, salt-of-the-earth, engine-room-of-the-economy companies," he said. "History says it takes between one and two years for insolvencies to peak. There is a possibility that 2011 will be every bit as bad as 2010." Hood said much of the pain has been delayed because government schemes - such tax breaks and the cut in VAT from 17.5% to 15% - have helped to keep more firms in business and more people in work than would normally be the case in a recession. However, he warned that when the stimulus is withdrawn, firms will be hit by the full extent of the downturn. |
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#37 |
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thestandard.co.uk The UK Economy may well become more hi-tech and knowledge based in the future, but the financial sector is having to readjust the world over, and London will readjust just like it always has done over the last thousand years. At the moment Britain is going through a phase of readjustment, however there are a good many reasons to be optimistic. http://www.egovmonitor.com/node/27160/print http://www.theworkfoundation.com/research.aspx http://news.efinancialcareers.co.uk/...wsItemId-22610 http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/article6948145.ece As for posting numerous negative article written by dubious journalists, good luck with that although they are becoming a bit tedious and boring to say the least. ![]() |
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#38 |
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I think it is probably inevitable that Britain will be overtaken by the likes of India, Brazil, etc... these are countries with populations in orders of mangitude greater than Britain could ever support, in addition they are rapidly developing with an expanding consumer class.
It also isn't just Britain that will be knocked down a peg or two, by 2020 China's economy will either be just behind or have already overtaken that of the US, and a decade or two later, India may have overtaken the US as well, relegating the stars and stripes to bronze on the podium. It could quite possibly be that while the 20th century was defined by London and New York, the 21st will be defined by Delhi and Shanghai. There could also be the possibility of the economies of Canada and Australia overtaking the UK, but that would be reliant upon a massive combination of factors that I doubt would 'align'. For instance even if the British economy was in some sort of permanent recession and state of population loss it would require years of above-average growth in the economy and population in Canada and Australia to overtake the British economy. There was a daily chart the other day which showed that if people The reality is that Australia, Canada and Britain grew by 2mn in the past 10 years. In addition the growth in immigration as a percentage is on the decline in both Australia and Canada (both peaking in the post-war years), but is rising in Britain. Of course that population needs to generate for the economy, but growth in all three countries has roughly run parallel give or take one year when one has outdone the other. While Canada and Australia are both former colonies, there are still significant ties the bind all countries together. For instance Anglo-Dutch Shell is a partner in the biggest planned project (barrels/day) in the Canadian Athabasca oil sands, while BP also has a presence. It so happens that three of the world's largest mining companies (Anglo American, Rio Tinto, BHP Biliton - the later two are Anglo-Australian) are headquartered in London ensuring that Britain cpatures some of the growth Australia gets when it harnesses its natural resources. The only other thing I can think of is that there is some sort of crazily wild currency fluctuations, otherwise we might as well predict Canada to have a larger economy than that of the US by 2030 If a $2.5trn economy in 10 years there is something definately amiss! At rates of growth like that Australia would have a larger economy than the US sometime in the third decade of this century! Of course there should be no room form complacency, as there are a wide variety of improvements to be made; more renewable energy sources, less pessimism in the general population, a larger and more efficient public transport network, less red tape, more assistance for entrepreneurs, etc... Yet I laugh at most of these reports that Britain is somehow at the entrance to an abyss when it has taken far more steps over previous decades to create a reasonable balance. Admittedly Britain has taken a hit in the past year due to its financial services operations and the subsequent recession, and next year will be bumpy, but in the long-term it is better placed than most countries. For instance while France and Germany cling on to low-skilled industries, Britain developed it's knowledge economy (4 of the world's leading universities are in Britain). The only manufacturing in the developed world that makes sense in the long-term are highly specialised jobs that require a human touch, eg Bentley cars over manufacturing pre-baked Ford cars. The unemployment rate in Britain is currently at 7.8% which compares quite favourably to the US (10.2%), the €-area (9.8%), Canada (8.6%), Germany (8.1%), and France (10.1%). As things go though, the global financial & economic crisis is a mere blip in comparison to the climatic complications we will face over the coming decades and I see that as the biggest hurdle not just for the British economy, but all economies. |
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#39 |
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http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle6949470.ece
December 9, 2009 Markets tell Darling: it's time to end the spending (David Bebber/The Times) Alistair Darling today will contest growing doubts over Britain’s economic recovery as he tries to show the markets that he is serious about halving the £180 billion deficit in four years. On the eve of his Pre-Budget Report, the Chancellor was confronted with figures that suggested that Britain would struggle to climb out of recession before the end of the year. Industrial output failed to grow in October — considerably worse than expected — and a CBI survey suggested that gloomy manufacturers expect output to fall in the coming months. One international ratings agency put Mr Darling on notice that he must act swiftly to pay off the record public debt or risk losing Britain’s prized “triple-A” credit rating. The agency, Moody’s, said that plunging tax receipts for years to come would mean “an inexorable deterioration” in the Government’s ability to pay its debts. It said that Britain was in a fundamentally weaker position than Germany, France and Canada, which also have AAA ratings. Its comments sent the pound lower on foreign exchanges against both the dollar and the euro. The agency indicated that Britain had only retained its rating because it had convinced international investors that it would take action to reduce the budget deficit. In a further sign of how poorly Britain’s public finances are regarded by the international markets, the cost of insuring against a possible debt default by the UK Government yesterday climbed to the same level as that to insure against a default by Portugal, whose economy is regarded as one of the weakest in Western Europe. Insuring $10 million of UK government bonds against default rose to $74,000 a year, up from $72,500 on Monday. At the end of September the cost was $44,000. The Chancellor will acknowledge a new era of deep spending cuts. Existing budgets will remain unchanged until 2011, but he will admit that safeguarding frontline hospital, school and police services will mean deep cuts elsewhere in the years that follow. |
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